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Soder, I understand the process around accrued/deferred revenue but how would you suppose ncyt delay any recent orders and book them as 2022 revenues. Not sure how that makes for good business. Surely you take on as many orders as you can and deliver on them orders as fast as you can. Speed of delivery is a competitive advantage in this highly competitive market. We can't be intentionally delaying delivery just so we can stick to the FY21 guidance and get a head start on FY22. Doesn't work that way. The customer just goes elsewhere lining the pockets of our competition.
Well Vadim makes it quite clear Novacyt is his no one pick as far as diagnostic testing is concerned and even names three other stocks reiterating Nova is the one to hold. Wonder if we will see a new Angel broker note.
I suspect David has been talking to 'people'
You don’t delay the orders. You delay the pnl from them in this years accounts! Save some for later Augustus.
Delaying orders is smart? Not sure about that. We have 6 months I believe to submit our FY21 accounts so this dispute could go on until June and we would still be able to include the resolution in our FY21 accounts. I expect us to be around £105m revenue for FY21 exc DHSC. Let's see
Fleas on a camel's back.
Priority no.1 is business, capitalising on the opportunities that lie before them, staying ahead of the curve in terms of competition.
Updating shareholders is towards the very bottom of the priority list. They will provide what is legally required. Other then that we have to wait.
They don't need PI's, they don't need cash which means they don't need II's so they just don't need the market. They don't need to big up ncyt to the markets, actually probably happy just staying under the radar, sat in a dark corner somewhere not making a noise. However, the business market is something very different, here they want to be high profile (show events, large sales teams, distributor agreements for marketing). This is where ncyt want to be making waves.
Once the dispute is settled and we get II's on board, ncyt will be under more pressure to provide regular updates. Until then, we are but mere mortals in this market. All imo
Fact is that on a day like today this sp should be flying !
Can´t see any buy out coming until such time as the DHSC resolution is settled Soder.
If they were going to deviate much from guidance we would know by now. However, given the summer pcr for travel boost I would think that if they are smart they will delay any recent orders and book them as 2022 revenues.
Also lots of tenders in the EU at the moment for pcr machines and tests with deadlines over the next 2 weeks. Germany is one of our biggest markets and a few there. Maybe some love from that mkt. fingers crossed.
The main thing though is obviously a dhsc resolution. I am hopeful that happens pre Xmas. Why? Year end is also a big thing for the dhsc and budgets. They will want to draw a line under it as much as we will.
And for me, the new ceo is a marketing guy. An all bells all whistles puns the drum and get out there. The only bky reason for his silence is something is going on. I have no idea what that may be, them buying someone, someone buying them, dhsc negotiation. I dont know. But there is no way that silence would be happening unless there is news coming.
Bought £23k worth, maybe that's why it has retreated in SP, 1st bought in 40p's sold and rebought on the way up.
Thanks Soder
I guess my understanding was that the guidance for 2021 was given at a time where testing was reducing month on month (I think it was June) and therefore they were taking a view on that trend. In Hindsight June was the lowest testing went and it has bee. Steadily growing since with Nov and now I suspect Dec considerably ramping. I hear what you are saying about Omicron being a 2022 driver but I still had hoped that we were exceeding 2021 forecast. Maybe we are but not to the extent that we need a market update.
Cheers.
The boost from omicron is not a 2021 event really. It’s December now. What is crucial here and why the re rate will happen is the fact the market assumed covid was over and ncyt was trading as if our sales would fall from 100m to 10m next year. Now IMO that’s not the case and the mkt will wake up to that. Clearly q1 will remain elevated for testing but more importantly we can see that testing for Co if will be with us for a while. It won’t fall away as there will be other variants. They will need to track it for years. And you do that via testing.
Thanks n the short term, omincron Imoact will be 2022 sales. But longer term it will be a realisation that those q machines in hospitals will be doing covid tests for many many years. They won’t just stop as case level fall. Re 2022 guidance, none has been given so they don’t need to flag anything to the market. I doubt any guidance will be given until mid next year as you can’t forecast a pandemic .
Okay - so terminology aside you agree?
What timeframe would this have to happen in? I a starting to think if we don’t hear from them in next day or 2 then we may be getting carried away. All be it that the sp was undervalued given original guidance.
https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/AIM%20Rules%20for%20Companies%20%2801012021%29_1.pdf
Rule 11
11. An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance.
They are not obliged they are legally bound to update the market if the performance of the biz deviates from the communicated guidance to an extent would have a meaningful impact on SP. That is both out and under performance.
They are the listing rules.
Feels as though we must be raking it in with firstly the uptick in European cases followed by the new PCR guidance and then also the fact that more genome sequencing will be needed which I believe is something NCYT specialise in BUT………
…… aren’t NCYT obliged to update the market as and when it becomes clear that we are out performing previous guidance by a material amount? I would be interested to understand other thoughts on this but I have this nag that by now we should have had an unscheduled positive TU and the fact we haven’t means we could well be on for meeting the previously guidance at year end??
Thanks in advance.