The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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and IF before the end of June the anticipated y/e accounts for Dec 2020 appear ...
I suspect the 'going concern' comments of the auditors report will feature more red flags than a Chinese Communist Party National Congress
Ncondezi has the right (but not the obligation) to fund a pipeline of C&I solar and battery storage projects in Mozambique (the "Projects")
Whoohoo!
I fear we have 'novated' a coal project with a solar pipeline.
It seems like the green energy side of things will be the main focus into the future.
Green energy in Mozambique, im liking this even more. I do wonder if they will offload/siphon the coal power side of the business to fund the green energy subsidary?
Eugh the word funding just sends shivers down my spine with NCCL….who knows what crazily complex arrangement they’ll come up with to fund these.
Kind of see what they’re trying to do in making a business for them should they end up being bought out of the coal project by CMEC but at what expense to shareholder I guess we have to wait and see!
Nor I...................
Not what I was waiting for !
RNS out. Signing of Solar agreement moving forward. Thoughts on the open??
Hammerphil1989,
Thanks for posting your information about the transmission line, which is very encouraging.
The end of June coincides with publication of NCCL final results, so perhaps the transmission line may get a mention in the report (post balance sheet events)
NCCL final results were 28 June last year.
Hi GGG,
Ok the topic of the Moz-Mal TL, I received the below from EDM earlier today:
We are still exchanging evaluation information with financiers and since it is a regional project it has more complexity but now we are hopeful that by end of JUNE the evaluation will be complete and in JULY it will be published.
So it looks like all is still moving ahead with the TL but slowly…
The gas-to-power-plant project in the South demonstrates that projects on that can and do happen. That project is in the South. It is not sufficient on its own to meet Gov overall targets, not to mention regional needs within Moz, with our plant solidily in the west of the country, supporting Tete and surrounding area, as well as, critically, supplying power to Malawi.
The Southern project is not a threat to our Tete project; and, indeed, dispels the idea that things can't get done in Moz/ Africa.
Extremely positive news, this!
Forgot to add that Moz EDM aren't really on the hook for all that much investment and 'resources'. They simply need to keep their hands out of the cookie jar, which is perhaps the hardest part of the project for them. There's also the Malawi link i.e. it's not just about electricity for Moz, but the wider impoverished region. It really would be a bureaucratic / diplomatic cluster f@ck if they pulled out now.
Yep I often have the same thoughts extrader. Then I comfort myself with the fact nccl and CMEC have spent a lot of time and a reasonable amount of money to get us here. EDM and Moz have also been involved and requested additional studies to be conducted. And there's the time spent now negotiating the tariff. It wouldn't be the first time a f@ck up African nation f@cks things up. But the time and money invested in the power project, alongside the transmission line project, alongside their stated aim for Tete power generation, would be a diplomatic 'own goal' of the highest order for the project to be kyboshed at this late stage. Why would any external entities, government or private, waste their time trying to help Moz in future if this is how they go about things. Having said all this, this is Africa, and these things do happen. We're now almost 3 weeks from the last update. I expect another update on the main project this month, be it an 'all's well and still waiting', and / or signed EPC contracts. GLA
As often, I'm generally speaking with you, G_G_G.
My nagging concern is that Moz Gov - like politicians everywhere (hi Rishi) - have to juggle a host of competing political imperatives from different ministries.....and may feel that, with 1 x power station 450MW 'in process', enough has been 'delivered ' on the energy front, maybe it's time to allocate scarce resources to education , or health , or telecomms or defence or whatever....
The restatement of the target 10 million by 2024 may be some comfort , but ONLY if we're needed to achieve/get close to it !
Does anyone know how much of the target 10m will be delivered by the Temane 450 MW project ?
TIA
Hxul, I agree with everything you've mentioned. As I've said it's a binary play, albeit one with a huge amount of work done, further supported by a government with a stated ambition of power accessibility to 10 million of its people by 2024. The Tete region is part of the power generation roadmap. And Moz have recently approved another power project in the south of the country, so are executing their plan (slowly). Given these things, to my mind it's not a simple flip of the coin rather I think it's more like 80:20 in favor of the project going ahead.
The issue like most things in Africa is how long will it take for us to move to the next, most important stage on the project timeline. Days, weeks, months...? Who knows. What is for certain is no other major milestones move ahead without tariff approval. IMO even the early works and EPC contracts have stalled while waiting for tariff approval from EDM / Moz. This is understandable. Why continue doing all the work (and incurring costs) if your key partner is doing f'all. By putting everything else on hold it also puts some pressure back on Moz EDM to get their act together because every month wasted with them scratching their @sses is another month delay to the plant being operational. Basically there's no more important milestones that can be delivered concurrently while they f@ck about.
One point made by another poster about 'haggling over the price' is something that I do believe is accurate. To my mind the tariff has been submitted with the requested additional studies, so if more information was required we should have found out by now. And if the project was going to be mothballed, or cancelled altogether, we should have found out by now. After all it has been 5 months since they received everything they needed to agree the tariff. Given these things I take a small amount of solace in knowing the project is currently alive and most probably only requiring an agreement on the tariff.
Hopefully not too long to wait. If we're still twiddling our thumbs without word on anything at the end of this month then I'll start to get worried and annoyed once again. Hanno needs to keep us abreast of anything he knows, and to allay any fears we have about the project being dead in the water. He has a habit of saying nothing until the share price has drifted by 20-30% and PIs are emailing and raging on this board. A simple 'we're still in negotiations and confident blah blah' will suffice. So far he has failed miserably on his timings, and on managing investor expectations. He needs to do better. Having said this, if he delivers the tariff then all failures will be forgotten and he'll be hoisted on PIs shoulders as we celebrate an instant 3 bag from current sp. I think this stock offers a very good risk : reward proposition, especially given the instant 3-bag news is overdue and could conceivably happen any day. AIMHO GLA
G_G_G seems to have a realistic grasp of the situation. It may happen and if it does there is a large potential upside. However progress is in the hands of functionaries with different agendas, priorities and timescales. If it doesn't - NCCL are toast. It is as he has said a binary bet.
Elsewhere on the board exists IMO wilful misinformation and disingenuous extrapolations.
"The solar plant will help with the finance" - NO IT WILL NOT. 20 days after it is commissioned the 30% interest rate on the $500k loan becomes active.
"A 450MW power station has been started in the south of the country so ours is imminent". NOT NECESSARILY. The Temane project was described in official documents in 2018 as at the 'feasibility study' stage. Ncondezi was described as 'conceptual' at that time. I don't know its current status. I have not seen 'feasibility study' in any official documents. I may just not have found them.
"EDM require no further information so we are just haggling about the price" - NOT NECESSARILY. For all we know the potential project is on the back burner indefinitely.
Potential investors should proceed with their eyes wide open.
Good luck to anyone who hits the jackpot.