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Thanks for those responses. I certainly agree with you both that the consumers will want it and my view has always been that we shouldn’t be depriving countries the use of coal etc to provide them what is certainly a basic necessity I.e electricity. It’s incredibly hypocritical for the developed world to force renewables on developing countries when we have been polluting the world with this stuff for hundreds of years. As you say Germany and Greece (I think also Poland) are still some of the worst offenders.
Wasn’t trying to put a negative spin on anything just understand if some of the “renewables lobby groups” let’s say could impact us. All your points are logical and I agree, sadly the world isn’t a logical place so was only wondering say what impact the ADB may have on general sentiment but towards Africa coal projects.
Anyway, it seems the consensus is none so I will shut up and leave it to Hanno and Co from here.
Appreciate the responses
The consumers certainly want and need it. Countries like Japan still building over 20 in next 5 years what's the issue. People of moz deserve something we take for granted.
Hi jdt 1990,
..." a little more resistance...", from whom ?
(1)The consumers will be grateful to have electricity, possibly for the first time in their lives;
(2)Moz Govt will appreciate getting help in achieving its development goals;
(3)GE will be happy for the business, until it weans itself from coal; and why should it, given that
(4) China, which currently gets 55% of its energy needs met by coal plans to reduce this to 35% (rpt 35%) by 2050. That's 35% of (presumably) much higher needs, so in all likelihood, no decrease in coal use in volume terms.
I believe its a similar story in India. Closer to home, Germany uses nearly as much coal (dirty lignite) as it did 30 years ago, thanks to its abandonment of nuclear and need for a reliable baseload supply.
In that context, I think most reasonable people would feel that any 'resistance' was likely hypocritical and immoral, not to say outright criminal, esp. re impact on (1).
Sorry for rant, I'll get off my hobby-horse (one of them I have a stable-full).
ATB
Yep very aware there is the bias in that article on the moving away from coal element but I also think there is no way that is doable in developing countries with a clear cut switch from one to the other. It will Certainly have to be a phase out and phase in approach. The bit that stood out for me was the 2019 quote from the African development bank president about getting out of coal and into renewables.
Sorry I wasn’t clear there, I’m not suggesting the project isn’t going ahead but more could there be a little more resistance that either has been or will be responsible for delays?
If you look to the tagline beneath the title of the website:
"Accelerating the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy"
We can see how this article on a website that is ideologically opposed to coal, fossil fuels etc
Plus, as you note, is an old article. Since, then we've had recent news, showing concrete progress. Out transmission study, which is designed to show we feed into the network/ grid, underpins a very recent government initiated tendering process; not to mention financial close on a separate transmission line infrastructure project, right where our project is! And that other comparable large scale projects have fallen away.
The project is happening. Indeed, we form a critical part of the energy picture mix in both Mozambique and in the wider Southern African Development region.
Haven't ever felt as confident than I do now
Think with the infrastructure they have its the only viable option to be fair
An old article but what are people’s thoughts on the views noted in this? Slightly worrying but does seem like the Chinese are persisting with coal....
https://ieefa.org/coal-power-in-mozambique-out-of-date-before-it-begins-construction/
To put it simply, China are providing the bulk of the finance. GE, as things stand, the techncial support and equipment.
As we see already from recent news, things are now starting to move very quickly i.e. that NCCL transmission study has already led to a tendering process. This project is bigger than Trump. Moz need it. The wider Southern African Development Community need it. China are the main partner, soon to be lead corporation. GE - as the US interest - is only a small part of the puzzle (though they need it too, given their $13billion bet on coal after their buyout of Alstom). And worth remembering, this project has gone Government-to-Government (Moz-Beijing). This is where it's at. Trump and his issues don't figure here.
Expecting the SP to shift this coming week.
Thanks trader - you've been busy this morning, here and over at ZIOC. Good posts. Thanks.
Hi Caterham7,
See https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/u-s-throws-down-gauntlet-to-china-with-mozambique-gas-mega-loan
Concluding para (EXXON partnered with CNPC) acknowledges 'there may be trouble ahead' There's commercial interests and there's politics...;-<
However, by analogy TOTAL (French) / McDermott US Subcontractor, if GE is only subcontractor/supplier to a CMEC-led multi-lateral-financed project, EXIM 'shouldn't' have a conflict. ...
Interesting (whatever your politics) to note that EXIM was 'off games' from 2015 to 2019.
"...U.S. President Donald Trump’s sparring with China is playing out in an unlikely new arena: the sandy turf of northern Mozambique, one of the world’s poorest countries.
The U.S. Export-Import Bank on Thursday approved the broadened scope of a $4.7 billion loan to back American suppliers to a liquefied-natural-gas development that could transform the southeastern African nation’s economy. The lender said China and Russia had both been considering helping finance it.
The Exim Bank helps foreign companies buy American products when private lenders won’t provide financing, with one of its goals being to “advance the U.S.’s comparative leadership in the world with respect to China.” The appointment of three Trump-appointed nominees to the bank’s board in May 2019 helped provide the quorum needed to restore its ability to approve deals worth more than $10 million for the first time since 2015, smoothing the way for its participation in the Mozambique project.
Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in Woodlands, Texas, initially led the Mozambican project that was sold on to French oil major Total SA. U.S. companies including McDermott International Inc. have been awarded contracts worth billions of dollars to help build the facility -- work that Exim Bank said could support 16,700 American jobs over the five-year construction period.
China has a well-established presence in Mozambique. It funded and built Africa’s longest suspension bridge in the capital, Maputo, and has invested in a massive hotel and conference center there. Russia has made more recent inroads, winning some oil and gas licenses and reportedly supplying mercenaries to beat back insurgents operating in the vicinity of the gas project.
Total’s project is the smaller of two developments that aim to tap Mozambique’s massive natural gas reserves. The other is now led by Exxon Mobil Corp. Its notable partners include China National Petroleum Corp., which could complicate any bid to secure Exim bank finance.
HTH and ATB
I posted the following on 21st August 2018 - but still just as relevant today..
“I haven't been following Trumps daily trade war rhetoric, but I wonder how it would / could impact relations between GE and CMEC? Im always mindful of those black swan events!”
Given that Trumps anti China tantrums have moved up a gear since posting the above, does anyone consider there being a risk of external forces meddling in GE’s relationship with CMEC?