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Good post GGG, as Caterham says, is balanced.
I get the frustration amongst the folks -- as a holder, I share them. But there are more than subtle differences between NCCL and the host of other AIM Casino/ Lifestyle companies; and indeed, between CMEC and our previous prospective Chinese partners.
1. Regarding AIM, few AIM companies can boast the backing of the partenrs and stakeholder we have. These are significant, having already invested time, energy and resources here, thinking especially about AFC, CMEC (i.e. Chinse State and BRI) and GE. That configuration of partners is massive and not some sort of accident. What KIBO end Edenville would have done for this?
If they, together, cannot deliver this project, no project on the continent has a hope of getting off the ground and beciming reality.
2. Working with previous prospective Chinese partners never wet anywhere - they were too small. CMEC are larger and proven. Further, and materially, this partnership has resulted in a Binding JDA being signed (signing ceremony in Beijing involving Governent-to-Government politics).
Folks should also understand that Mozambique is the subject an international statebuilding programme. This is why they have been supported in ways others have not, including the World Bank having (a few years back) seconding one of their highly regarded officials to head EDM for a period to ready it for this sort of programme (he rooted out crazy inefficiencies even corruption).
There is enormous support for the project, it will get off the ground. As others say, we will likely be bought. For a start, there is no way we will be allowed to keep that entire 40%. We will, in ny view, be left with no less more 20%. However, given the size of the project and the politics involved, we will likely be bought out 100% (GE are staying quiet - cannot help but think they will emerge as the frontrunner - we are not hearing much about them as fossil fuels is a complex subject and leaving them out for now keeps the project below the radar, if folks know what I mean)...
Anyway, good luck folks!
Good balanced summary GGG - appreciated.
You know this how AlexE?
News going through the process of being released. Jumping through CMEC PR hoops
Sadly you're correct jdt. Let's not forget we've been in this position before with Chinese partners. Timetables have never been met. And Hanno has donated a large amount of our money to his brother's company. These are things we do know. Having said that if he can start placing the remaining pieces of the jigsaw we will be well rewarded. The next pieces as CF has rightly pointed out are the Shareholder Terms Sheet (good news) and a revised timetable agreed by EDM (potentially bad news). Both were scheduled for release 'in the coming weeks', which by my count was 3 weeks ago tomorrow. We also have the EPC and historical cost audit to be completed in Q3, however in his interview he said these timings were generous so we should be expecting these pieces of news soon as well (given they were originally due end of June). The all important tariff agreement date hasn't been re-set but if it's pushed to H1 next year the SP will most likely stay under 6p, even with the other +ve newsflow. If they commit to Q4 and the rest of the news is delivered on time, then I'd expect 6-8p range with agreement of tariff taking us through 10p. Following tariff, each piece of news will push the SP to circa 20p on FC (my expectations). Reasoning for this is we can expect circa ÂŁ40-50m in back costs + developer's fee on FC, which is 15p cash value. It makes no difference this will be re-invested into the project, as we'll have the rest of the finance sorted and in 4 years it will be throwing off v.large amounts of cash. Having said this I fully expect us to be bought out in part, or in full at FC, which would mean 20p+ depending on stake taken. A previosu report valued 10% of the project at $60m from memory (so 15p value per 10%).
All to play for, but we need the +ve news flow to start in the next week or so. Time for Hanno to start delivering more than just delays.
Letâs hope youâre right CF otherwise Hanno is going to have an angry mob bashing down his door and an invitation to join the âcrook who runs an African based energy lifestyle companyâ club!
Expecting some news soon on NCCL. We know there is something about a timetable and the Shareholder Agreements Terms Sheet.
They could some separately or they could come together. Not sure. But the Shareholder Agreements Terms Sheet is really important in the near term. For me, the minimum we will be able to take from it is that all partners are commited to the project. Given the slight delay (we getting close to half-way through the delayed time period, which I count as two months, being an August we possbly hear about historic back costs etc), hearing about Shareholder Agreements Terms Sheet soon is a very good, shrewd move in my book. However, we could learn more than we expect from it. Also, was helpful to hear from the posters' contacts with the company, that there is positivity regarding the upcoming period of strong progressive newsflow. Good to see, too, the share price nudging up. Another few days and we will finsh above 4p and then we off to the races.
Good luck to all the good folks and holders!