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Is worth adding that Mozambique and Malawi signed a Power Purchase Agreement ahead of the detailed work and conclusion/ Financial Close on the Moz-Malawi Interconnector Power Line that links Matambo (-- in Tete, 'right around where our project is located', and where 'all other proposed power plants [...] fallen away' --) with Malawi.
This meaning a) a ready assured (and, am guessing a precondition for CMEC and very possibly GE) international market for the power coming out of our Tete project (1200MW planned by 2030), and b) an agreed price/ cost range for the PPA, dependent on GEs fine tunings and parameters.
Are GE going to walk away from that?
Is like a base-ball hanging perfectly, waiting to be hit for a home-run.
The opposite of sticking - i.e. walking away completely - which would be to pi ss -off World Bank, Moz, Malawi, and other donor agencies (guessing the Chinese would just capitalise on a GE walk-out).
By the looks of the work of others on this BB recently, Africa looks like a place where GE will continue its partnerships and collaborations around coal.
Combination of pressure within/ on China and particularly the needs of the Developing World. I am absolutely in favour heading towards reneweable energies. But this is easier said than done, especially for folks living in Europe or US, where mass industrialisation long happened, using up their coal stocks. Countries like Mozambqiue, Bangladeshi, Pakistan, all looking to become middle-income countries, have no chance unless they use their coal stocks. In those places, coal2power programmes are the most efficient ways to achieve this. And the World Bank wouldn't be supporting the attached infrastructure work in these places unless a) there was no other way to move national development forward, and b) the appropriate tech was not in place.
Looking at the articles and comments here, it looks like GE are neither prepared to give it coal fully yet. Indeed, if World Bank recognises Developing World needs, and GE have the very best, efficient, 'environmentally-friendly' tech, then WB and GE and the Developing World need to be working together for the next two decades, to help the rest of the world move on and forward (combined with an energy mix, which is what we are seeing in Moz i.e. hydro, gas, coal, solar/ PV, wind etc.).
Hi all,
Somewhat closer to 'our sheep', the elephant in the room - to mix metaphors/animals - is China, where Xi has announced to the UN serious measures to address carbon emissions and climate change.
The Economist's take/extract is :
..."Crucially, China has not spelled out whether its new target will cover domestic emissions only, or include the emissions caused by China’s generous investments in coal outside its borders, including through the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure-building scheme. A new five-year economic plan, to be adopted next year, may provide clues to China’s plans for ending fossil-fuel dependency.
Achieving the 2060 target will require a complete decarbonisation of China’s electricity supply, more than 60% of which still comes from burning coal. Yet China is still building coal-fired power plants faster than any country. In the first six months of 2020 it built more than 60% of the world’s new installations of them. Carbon-heavy infrastructure being planned and built today could remain usable for decades. China’s efforts to revive its covid-struck economy include making it easier to secure permits to build such stuff..."
So , for both domestic and BRI reasons, China seems unlikely to change tack for the foreseeable.
ATB
So,
The article about India is a massive pointer to where this is going. Thanks Glen. Thanks also Badeli, Chris, Alex, GGG, Humps, and others
Agree regarding the other opportunities GE will seek as as result of existing relationship. One of the most key partnerships for GE is China. While China can plug 5he gap, if GE walk away, GE walking away leaves GE losing ground wherever China are active. Better to be working closely with the Chinese wherever and whenever possible.
In the case of our Moz project, got to also satisfy Moz state and all the donor agencies and banks who just agreed to pay for your transmission infrastructure.
Is worthwhile mentioning that GE are going into wind power too and that MOZ has in the process of getting it's first shall scale wind farm ( not to mention NCCL and CMEC both entering PV solar off grid solutions).
Thanks to all the good folks posting here. Things are looking much improved since initial GE news.
I agree, Glenmorangie, there will be so much more to GE’s future direction than a media headline which was quite probably unauthorised in the sense that it was revealed sooner than it should have been and.not accompanied by a clear explanation of future global strategy. GE in all its forms needs to work in different jurisdictions as the world transitions to new forms of energy and in the developing world there is no future in simply withdrawing from its long-term commitment to increasing access to cheap power. If it does others will step in to support governments and as a result will put themselves in the best place to win future renewable energy projects of the sort which GE quite reasonably wants to concentrate on.
It is interesting that nothing further, as far as I am aware, has been said by GE since the change in direction was revealed. I am fairly sure the story will be proved to be correct as a general statement of intent but I equally think the policy will be much more nuanced than it first appeared. I obviously hope that is the case but am not overly concerned either way.
from previous post
“Unlike a number of other countries globally, India continues to rely on coal for base load power,” GEPIL said in response to FE’s queries. GEPIL will therefore continue to focus its efforts on maintaining its business in India aligned with the local market dynamics and the national interests of India,” it said, indicating that the company’s transaction with coal is not yet over, at least in India.
If GE walk away from the deal in Mozambique could that impact on potential opportunities to sell other infrastructure technologies from their portfolio to that region, including alternative power technologies ? When you operate at a Global level, developing good relationships with Government agencies is key - who knows just a thought.
Hi, I see there was a news article in the financial express yesterday about GE activities in India regards their coal power exit strategy - the news is out there it's just how you interpret it in line with our project. Different countries/Geographies will be developing different exit strategies' regards coal power. The west looks like they are ready to push the button as they believe they have the infrastructure now in place to move to green(er) alternatives that will fil the Gap but other geographies in the world are maybe not so fortunate and will not able to turn on those alternatives for quite a few years to come.
To a certain extent I agree with Chrishutch I do not care if it is GE or some other Company supplying the technology. I think Mozambique (and other African states) have the right to and need access to significant increases in power generation and coal power is one of the options right on their door step, ready to be harvested (using greener technologies than the west have used over the last 100+ years).
Article below:
GE Power India yet to take final call on coal exit
By: FE Bureau | September 23, 2020 8:08 AM
General Electric Company (GE) has expressed the intention to exit the new build coal power market across the world, but GE Power India (GEPIL) — the American multinational firm’s Indian subsidiary — is still assessing the holding company’s decision and its impact on business activities in the country. General Electric Company (GE) has expressed the intention to exit the new build coal power market across the world, but GE Power India (GEPIL) — the American multinational firm’s Indian subsidiary — is still assessing the holding company’s decision and its impact on business activities in the country. “Unlike a number of other countries globally, India continues to rely on coal for base load power,” GEPIL said in response to FE’s queries. GEPIL will therefore continue to focus its efforts on maintaining its business in India aligned with the local market dynamics and the national interests of India,” it said, indicating that the company’s transaction with coal is not yet over, at least in India.
This was at 4.40 before the speculation on GE and that was on a low volume drop from the high 4s early 5s.
Personally I don’t care if it is GE or some other supplier but I think the current share price is. It reflecting the current position of the company let alone pricing the future in.
I would like to see big steps forward for the company over the next four weeks and I would like it most if it happened soon, just to catch those that went off to chase rainbows elsewhere assuming they had time. I don’t think they do and lots will be caught out when news lands.
I really do buy into the idea (think Alex suggested it), that if it turns out that GE will continue to supply us, then that is a massive signal the project is going ahead. That news and then Historic Costs would, as Chris says, see a serious re-rate here.
One step at a time, though. Have to stop counting the chickens before they've popped.
GGG, do agree, we got caught by the story, like it came out of left-field. While GE seemed to be discussed less and less by NCCL, we didn't think they wouldn't take up their place within the project. So the Bloomberg story really was a barsteward! Not the end of the world, but really unsettling.
Glenmorangie's earlier post provides valuable insight, for me. It presents a very credible scenario and outcome. In that post, Glen says about his conversation with the GE employee/ worker, that the individual 'realised' the [Bloomberg] 'headlines were quite severe'. But the description of what is potentially really happening seems extremely plausible.
As far as we know, right now, it will seem up in the air. It may not be like this at all. And Glen's post points to this. Naturally, we await offical news for confirmation, either way. But, at this point, I remain cautiously optimistic.
For helpful reference, I repost Glenmorangie's post in full below (huge thanks to him!):
------------------
Hi All,
Thought you might want to hear about a conversation that I had with GE and this is not insider information. I asked the individual for clarity regards the GE announcement because they are a Supplier and contractor to our business in the UK and wanted to know if this would impact on their ability to service us.
He told me, as far as he is concerned that nothing is getting sold off (he realised the headlines were quite severe)- that the only impact is that there will be no new build Coal Power stations in Europe and the US. He said that their activities in China and India have not been affected (at this moment in time) regards new builds. I asked him about activities in Africa but he was not aware of any, probably because he is not privy to activities in that Geography. There was more I spoke to him about but not related to this project.
So now we have to work out what it means to the Ncondezi project.
Glen
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Agreed but the GE news is critical to hitting the 6's. Incredible how this came out of left-field. They need to get GE to honor their commitment!
is once again looking better. if general electric say they will contiune to supply to us, then thats massive! we will take out 6p on that. then we got the historical costs audit, which as got to be close! !!
and should news land then it will be heading to 5,6, higher.
Luck plays a role in these things and NCCL is due some, alongside all the news that we know is fourth coming. Now I feel I have ramped it enough but like I said at 3.20 if the price is crazy I am happy to push its merits.