London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks CF73 for pulling all this information, it’s really helpful to provide context and scale of this opportunity.
Hopefully it will reassure some of the more nervous shareholders to sit tight and then benefit from the upside when this project comes to fruition.
Appreciate all the scepticism, but sense we are close to some news over the coming weeks.
Great post BENJAN1.
And is interesting you say that, about Scott - was thinking the very same thing.
Scott Fletcher has not invested to take up his 17.32% stake in the company on the basis of NCCLs Solar and Energy Storage programme. His massive holding is driven by his interest in the return available from the main project. And would add, getting to 17% + would require a serious degree of confidence and even certainty.
Some of that confidence is available to the rest of us, if we triangulate together all the news and info there is in the background.
- World Bank, Norway and Germany have already approved funding for the Moz-Malawi Interconnector Line and Substation running through right where our project is. Would they approve funding without assurances that there would be power carried by the Line by a given time?
- Tender Process for building the infrastructure are underway – see HammerPhil’s posts about EDM and CMEC, tendering etc. Excellent sleuthing from HapperPhil!
- There is a PPA between Mozambique and Malawi, to carry power through the Moz-Malawi Interconnector Line, from the Matambo substation, right where we are.
- The Transmission study, in which NCCL inputted significantly.
- Where, according to Hanno
“…other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time we last did the [transmission] study, have fallen away.”
- I would also look to HammerPhil’s posts – he has done extremely good sleuthing, around EDM and tenders for infrastructure work.
- Moz Integrated Power System Master Plan, produced Nov 2018, shows 300MW from Tete-derived coal by 2023; another 300MW to come on line 2026; then 300MW in 2034, and the final 300MW in 2038 – making a total 1200MW.
For the first 300MW, they got to start building soon, if that power is meant to be on stream by 2023. I see FC sooner than some folks think. Tariff being sensitive, informing other values. Along with other matters (see HammerPhil’s posts).
Finally, what a World Bank representative explained to me, is the massively telling. He said in an email correspondence:
“The Moz-Malawi interconnection […] The project is connecting Matambo substation in Tete, central region of Mozambique to Malawi.”
“Power to be evacuated from Matambo substation is provided by sources of energy in Tete region. Both government of Mozambique and Malawi have already signed a power purchased agreement for energy between the two countries.”
This project is happening. But for understandable reasons (i.e. due process, competition, price/ value sensitive details etc.), NCCL (and partners) cannot just come out and tell us. Is not that simple.
This is a massive project. Huge news coming, in my view.
Thanks for posting this link.
This project is going to happen and their is sufficient will, power and resources to ensure it does.
The timescales for the tariff agreement response from EDM are not within Hanno’s gift. There is enough information in the background to entice Scott to invest so heavily and get involved.
I’m still confident this will happen, although it ma6 take a little longer than anticipated.
Be patient, the recent price movement has been on small trades. I’m sitting tight and will add more if the price continues to tank.
Meanwhile, no real world worries on the 'dirty' coal front :
China may not (quelle surprise !) be taking environmental concerns as seriously as it would have folks believe....
In the latest 5 year development plan
.."The blueprint sets a target of generating just 20 percent of energy from non-fossil fuels by 2025, up from 15.9 percent in 2020.
There were no specific targets for increasing wind, solar or hydro capacity, although there have been pledges to invest more in renewables.
China is the world's biggest polluter, spewing out over a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming.
As part of the plan to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, Beijing had previously pledged to reach peak carbon emissions before 2030.
Researchers say this needs coal-fired power to be cut almost immediately.
However the economic blueprint does not ban the development of new coal power stations.
Instead China's cabinet last month issued a directive to "increase the share of large capacity coal power units".
"The contradiction between targeting low-carbon development and continuing to invest in coal and fossil fuels still seems stark in China's plans," Myllyvirta said.
Word and deeds.....
In the meantime, will we break 4p? It's all getting a bit silly now.
Process of triangulation - looking at everything we know in and around the main project - points to the main project absolutely happening. They need financial Close sooner (or an outright sale even) if they are to be able to start building in time to have power available, as per Integrated Power System Master plan, and Power Purchase Agreement between Moz and Malawi, where the power Malawi is to receive is to be carried from Tete region, form the Mutambo substation (where we basically are).
On sale of power to Malawi, I can imagine that this is a major part of the plan/ incentive for CMEC, given they will be investing a significant proportion of the neecssary capital and taking on the risk.
We should be hearing further updates within 4 weeks -- could be any time, in other words.
We can't avoid the drop. We know there is a short wait, possibly 3 or 4 weeks, though that being a lifetime on AIM. SP drop was inevitable. Got to ride it out.
I bet Scotty is a bit miffed, as well as most of us. He bought 750,000 at average c5.4p.
Hanno has a lot to answer for as far as I can see.
Really does need to get something sorted out. Why are the MM's dropping the price on such small volumes?
I'd be surprised if those quarters are familiar with the history (and current reality) of Hanno's timing plans. Given we continue to move toward 4p (not 10p), it would appear those quarters also aren't putting their money where their mouth is. Even better top-up opportunity for the believers (he repeats each week).
Has been said certain quarters, that there will be updates in the coming weeks/ within 4 weeks. The company know that holders are mainly - if not solely - interested in the main project. My view is, is that we should be hearing this month, on the main project
Well this is depressing. At this rate we'll be back in the 3's by the time we get some news on the main project. Sadly the interview did give the impression that we won't be hearing anything for a little while. I really don't understand why EPC & O&M contracts are so overdue (over 6 months by my reckoning), or any other partner updates for that matter. As for the tariff, if we get approval in H1 it should be considered a win given the missed guidance we've had to endure over the last few years. Good time to top up for the believers. GLA
Indeed, and appreciating your input Hammerphil, thanks!
ps there was a contract award in relation to a resettlement scheme to facilitate this transmission line on 26th Feb, so it is definitely happening.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think the delay in news flow for the main project is a concern, just poor expectation management.
EDM confirmed to me directly that contract award for the Moz-Mal interconnector project is due for April 2021, which I think is material to our tariff negotiation (due to cost implications). This adds another layer of commercial sensitivity, so I think the ‘slow’ progress is, unfortunately, to be expected.
Funding of NGP at Subsidiary level took place largely because existing shareholder base were a) less interested in the Solar/ Energey storage option, concerned, and rightly, more about the main project, and b) didn't want to be diluted as a result of funding of programmes other than related to the main project. If they needed to rasie funds, for NGP/ GridX, then this was the only way, I guess, given the resistance - even if not clear what the implicatons are for the rest of us. But, as wel all know, the main project is what really counts here. Whatever is going with NGP, however complex or messy, as far as I can tell it has no bearing on the main project. And when that comes in, we will be less worried about NGP.
By accounts, it seems we have more updates in the coming weeks/ next 4 weeks, which is great to know, provided it is about the main project. News this month, then, and it needs to be about the main project - nothing else will do for me, as am sure is the case for most other LTHs.
Good luck all!
Does anyone know what connections (boom ! boom !) JA Solar panels and Tesla Power packs have in Moz and who the local agent/sponsor is ?
As usual I couldn't agree more extrader. They owe us a clear explanation as on the surface the recent move stinks. This company is really starting to grate on my nerves. Let's hope they have some good (clear) news on the main project soon.
Chris, all this money is due at Financial close which is still a year or 18 months away.
Look at Lloyd Pengilly`s history-Hanno`s father.
The problem I have with that is the conjunction of these 2 statements from the RNS :
(1) - Lenders right to convert the Bridge Loan into equity of NGP with a coupon of 50% should NGP default on repayments or under events of default typical for a project of this nature.; coupled with
(2) The Bridge Loan will be provided directly to the Company's wholly owned subsidiary, Ncondezi Green Power, and honours the prior commitments not to dilute shareholders to progress the Company's C&I strategy."
If NGP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NCCL ...and defaults....the Lenders acquire shares in NGP.
What %age of NGP's current share capital (whatever that is ?) ...and where do those shares come from ?
Whether from NCCL or by issuance of new NGP shares, are 'we' not diluted ? And by how much ? We have no idea.
Hanno makes a big play of this 'no dilution' stuff - which , apart from anything else, on the face of it isn't correct.
More (?) importantly, if I knew enough about NGP and its prospects (in the poss. competitor CMEC context), I think I'd rather NCCL HAD diluted directly , on a passthrough basis ...and borrowed the $ 500k in NCCL's name from the 3 Lenders.
I doubt whether we'd be paying 30% (which would help reduce the material hit to cashflow)...AND we'd be undiluted beneficiaries of NGP's improved fortunes.
And lastly : this is all a bit Morton's fork-ish :
- If NGP's prospects are poor, why are the 3 providing finance ? Maybe (total conjecture on my part) it's tied in in some way with EDM's sign-off on the tariff agreement eg burnishing NCCL's 'green credentials' ? Or making NGP worth more in a sale of NGP/NCCL to CMEC ?
- If the prospects are good, why aren't we doing the financing ourselves (as per above) ?
I don't 'get' it.....and hope we'll be provided with a clarification that provides the 'aha' that is currently - IMO - missing.
There are considerations with the loan as Scott is not paid, other than options at higher prices and he is putting up the sizable chunk of the loan. He is also the largest shareholder and aligned with us and our interests.
So in my view they have money for the side project £500k and the main project they raised £750,000 recently, have warrants for more money, historic costs to be reimbursed ($21million) plus potentially $6m more which provide asset value and then there is developers premium and other premiums to come as well.
They have also implied that part or all of the project could be sold which if only part should still be worth a lot more than today's market cap.
Loan 30% coupon bridging loan wow realise risk but 30%
Loan 30% coupon bridging loan wow realise risk but 30%
Lack money,loans placings no revenue.risky countries too do business a punt at best