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GGG, understand your frustration and would be equallly narked if the mucked about GridX without first delivering on the main project.
As I see it, if this ' Ncondezi Green Power' Twitter page is genuine, then am expecting that it was done to secure a Twitter page Twitter handle/ name (being their preferred one) - nothing worse than losing out (on preferred IDs/ names etc) to someone else (where a specific ID etc matters much less to them than to you); and that perhaps that this move is in light of significant progress on the main project. One thing is for sure, imo, and that it's not lost on NCCL that we await SHA TS, Historic Costs and EPC Contracts, that GridX won't do until we have major steps forward on the main power project. There are some big holders and am confident they will have pressed this home.
NCCL will be part of fully bought out if we get to FC. Regarding when, I simply cannot see it happening until legally binding contracts are signed with EDM and Moz across every angle of the project, which indeed could be never. Africa is riddled with corruption and China is well aware of this, as they use it to their advantage wherever possible. For this project the economics are reasonable, but not good enough to be paying out millions of dollars to greedy African bureaucrats. Better for the little local company to get sign off on tariff, ppa, pca, mining licenses etc, and pay slightly more than what one would like for a bigger share of the project, than get stuck in an African 'swamp'. Far better optics for them to be doing this as well. So sorry CF there's simply no way they will buy-in now. And given the way our SP has reacted to recent +ve progress, I'd say the market feels the same.
I think the market is also sick and tired of Hanno's broken timelines and the other bull**** that has accompanied this project. I don't want to see or hear about GridX until this project is progressed beyond all the key milestones, of which the tariff is the first (and we still don't know when it's due). Hanno has been a typical AIM **** using investor money to buy into another company (his brother's no less), when he should be focused on the main project. Very George Roach of him. If indeed Ncondezi Green Power is ours, I'm hoping he has the good sense to say nothing about it until the main project is progressed past key stages. To most investors it looks and sounds like another AIM 'sleight of hand' trick, and represents nothing other than significant dilution. I hope Hanno is reading this, as I'll be the first to shirt-front him at the next AGM if he starts f@cking about with our money and his brother's company. Perhaps the SP action today is because people like me have seen Ncondezi Green Energy...
Hi CF73, my thoughts on the timing of any possible bid are based on my feeling that CMEC would happily pay a premium for certainty. I suspect they are not concerned about the cost given how close they appear to be to major Chinese banks and to the government. What I think they would prefer is an off the shelf purchase once everything is signed and sealed. NCCL are a one trick pony (or perhaps one and a tiny little sliver of a second one!) whereas CMEC are more like all the racehorses in the Grand National and Gold Cup fields combined! The comparative value of the pony (even one that knows one trick!) and all the horses in the two races is probably similar to the comparative value of NCCL and CMEC! Just my thoughts and probably far-fetched but I do think that there are many LTHs who cannot see a reason why CMEC would want Ncondezi 'getting in the way' once the project really gets going. They have needed Ncondezi's expertise, local knowledge and ability to focus 100% on Tete to get to where they are now but Hanno has often made it clear that taking the development forward once all the contracts are signed is way out of his company's comfort zone and that of course is when CMEC and GE, with all their shared experience of many similar projects, will come into their own and potentially decide to make Hanno an offer he cannot refuse, and which he might be very happy to accept so that he can move on with his colleagues.
You have suggested this before badeli and I believe there is serious merit to this.
On the matter ofa take-over, I would syggest again, as I have before, if CMEC intend to take NCCL out, then why would they do it so close to or after financial close?!
Doing so, say after confirmation of matters such as historic costs and SHA TS, will only a see a higher pre-buyout NCCL SP. This means NCCL will have the ability to ask for more. From a lower starting point in SP terms, it becioems harder to ask for what you are fully worth, when - apparently - the risk is still there. I say 'apparently' because we are not privy to the level of detail and participation CMEC, GE and NCCL are. This has already gone government-to-government. Moz is the focus of a massive state-building programme. Ncondezi Power Project is a part of the mix, as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (through CMEC). Many of us can see how it doesn't make sense for CMEC (and ven GE) to keep NCCL involved.
This delay has been interesting. If there is a buyout soon-ish, we can see how it was used to buy time to agree on the price.
So, badeli, am with you on your thoughts. Let's see how this plays out :-)
I have said it before but it is perhaps worth repeating - NCCL have been given first refusal for the first 8 (?) of GridX's solar battery projects which, if they take up some or all of the options, will cost them millions of pounds which they do not have ........ unless they are bought out just before Financial Closure by CMEC once all the risks have been eliminated from the main power-station and mine project in Tete. I wondered out loud whether that might be the moment for CMEC to decide to buy out NCCL, resulting in Hanno and his team 'suddenly' having the means to make serious investments in GridX which is of course run by his brother. I would caution anyone reading this that this suggestion is no more than my musings. The fact that the new Twitter account is called Ncondezi and not NCCL makes me even more curious - Hanno must be worn out by his years of commitment to Tete and might like the idea of a less stressful future with his brother at GridX! Probably crazy, but I wonder!
Now, that is interesting Hammerphil. Am sure you know that NCCL have a stake (of sorts) in GridX , which is an 'Off Grid Solar Battery Project' i.e. Green power project.
If 'Ncondezi Green Power' isn't connected to GridX and NCCL, then it's a hell of a coincidence. And if it ain't a coincidence, and this is something to do with NCCL and GridX, then why call it Ncondezi? Unless it were being taken over by NCCL?
But where would the money be coming from?
...unless there happened to be a sale of something?