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Agree Benjan. Just for clarity sake, I'm saying there's a chance the project could be shelved, as there's always a possibility this can happen. But the history of milestones and amount of work completed right up to the submission of the tariff envelope would suggest that EDM and Moz are serious. Not to mention their oft stated national goal of 'power to the people' helped by 600Mw of coal fired energy from Tete (with us being the only viable project in the area). Not to mention the political fall-out both domestically and with China should they pull the plug at this juncture. In other words it would constitute a mighty big 'own goal'. But yes, this is Africa and it could happen.
Clearly there's something holding up the process. This could be EDM and Moz pushing for a lower tariff. It could be a delay linked to the transmission line project. It could be a delay in formulating wording on agreements and contracts. Or it could be African bureaucracy doing what they do best i.e. being f@ck ups. All of which would have been -vely impacted by Covid. Whatever the reason(s) it doesn't change the fact this project is nearing completion of its most important milestone to date. And there's a hell of a lot of milestones that have been completed to get us here. Plus our mgt have only ever been +ve in what they've been communicating to the market. So the facts and evidence say to me 'delayed but happening'. Not the project is dead, supported by f'all.
Having said this Hanno needs to step up and make some positive moves for his shareholder base. If indeed mgt are confident the project will get the green-light then he needs to fix the funding concern immediately. Make a real statement of confidence to the market and cash in mgt warrants / options. And do it now. Unfortunately the EPC contracts won't change the tune of the naysayers and doom mongers. It will help the sp, but still not provide a definitive show of confidence to the market the project is going ahead. This lack of confidence though is understandable given Hanno's timings historically have been completely full of ****, so him saying 'we're confident' means nothing to the market. Reality being the EPC contracts were to be completed 6 months ago. The tariff over 4 months ago. We should be near record highs given the stage we are at, but because Hanno has communicated bull**** timings on so many occasions the market doesn't believe him at his word. Fix the funding concern through mgt warrant / option conversion and it definitively says all is fine. Finally deliver the EPC contracts and we'll be at 8p waiting for the tariff to drop. Hanno needs to start behaving like a seasoned CEO, rather than 'someone's son' who was given a shiny toy to play with like Andrew Trahar of Zioc, and Dan Betts of Hum. AIMHO GLA
G_G_G, I appreciate the time you take to provide reasoned analysis on NCCL and I’m sure others on the board do too. There will always be doubters whilst here whilst the tariffs negs remain outstanding.
It’s our individual choice whether to believe that the main project will happen and if you don’t, then you shouldn’t be invested here. I have read the comments of yasx and understand why they formulated their view. I don’t concur following the extensive research undertaken and gut feel.
If you doubt whether the project won’t happen, you shouldn’t be invested here and it would be helpful to all if the negativity was back up by facts rather than conjecture.
Keep the faith all, your patience will be tested but ultimately rewarded
GGG, that is one of the posts of the year on this NCCL LSE BB - and very likely is THE post of the year here.
Great stuff!
hxul, the unsupported opinions stated by YASX is absolute and utter rubbish. As for your thinking...? Sorry there's thinking in your posts? I asked you last to explain your pessimism based on a multitude of things that have happened, and are currently happening. You didn't (or couldn't). Reminder, one of the stated primary goals of the Moz government is 'power to the people'. And part of their published strategy to deliver this goal is 600Mw of coal fired power from Tete. They haven't veered from this at any point. You still haven't answered why they would have allowed this project to continue to this point if they were going to pull the pin? And why would CMEC have continued to invest time and resources if they felt Moz was going to pull the pin? Why did Moz ask for additional studies to be conducted if they were going to pull the pin? And the studies were to connect to the transmission line that is about to have contracts awarded for development. Why would nccl engage consultants for the tariff agreement stage? Why are we even at this late stage where all we have heard is discussions are advancing and they remain positive on the outcome i.e. delayed but moving forward? The list goes on. Between you and Daisy I really don't understand the point of your posts. Give us some evidence to support your opinions. As for the drivel spouted by YASX, I'm glad he lives on the other board. Complete waste of time reading that garbage.
Daisy : excellent commentary by YASX. Reflects my own thinking
I believe 2021 will come and go and the goose will not have laid the golden egg.
I've stated and outcome and a timescale. If anyone thinks this is 'drivel' feel free to make a counter prediction.
I was invested. I'm no longer invested. NCCL started to remind me of some of my past mistakes and I took the the segue into solar as the writing on the wall. I am however utterly fascinated by it.
Well, if it isn't it isn't.
But my understanding is that the Interconnector project evaluation will be completed by the end of June & published in July. So I am putting two and two together and 'hoping' that this might open the door to news for us.
And if it isn`t?
I won’t lie it has taken a lot longer than I expected, but I currently hold and look forward to the news we are waiting for.
Hopefully July will be our month!?!
Reduced, just waiting for the next spike to exit fully,
And you, are we still a bargain down here?
You still holding Daisy
Groan indeed Gary.
The solar project is centre stage now. Those of you interested may do well to look on the "other side", a very good post by yasx which sums up the situation perfectly imo.
Last two trades were an ISA transfer by the looks of it.
Garykc; you not alone trawling the internet LOL
They in sensitive negotiations. Negotiations over the tariff are the most sensitive, as future national growth and corporate profitability depends on it. Indeed, the Subscription Price and NCCLs main project outright sale price (if it came to that - and I think it could very well), depends on it. So can imagine CMEC pushing to get highest possible tariff for supporting margins; and NCCL playing a supporting role as that means a more impressive windfall for shareholders; while EDM and Moz pushing for reductions as that produces a more affordable tariff for domestic consumers. While according to the World Bank, there's already an agreement in place for the electricity being carried by the Interconnector linking Tete (where we are), and Malawi.
Hang in there - and kerp the faith, as BENJAN1 says.
Groan. Another day, another dollar loss!!!! No RNS. Keep trawling EDM and CMEC websites in the hope of gleaning any information.
Can’t argue with that cf. Over to Hanno and SF now….
Some good points GGG
Am certain most folks have invested for the returns they expect from the main project. This includes Scott Fletcher, as well as AFC and Polenergia.
The Solar project is piggy backing on the main project. I can see why they did it. The main project is providing the launch pad for the C&I programme (you can imagine the main project windfall that can then be reinvested into Ncondezi Green Energy etc). However, while this may not appeal to many/ most holders here, the C&I programme would struggle without the main project coming off. SF alone has invested a lot here and can only imagine that he is significantly down on that investment. Even Hanno with small holding, if he wants to have an appropriate stake, he needs the main project to happen. If the main project doesn't come off, the solar project will be scant consolation. So, when all is said and done, the vast majority of parties with a meaningful interest here, all want - and need - the main project to come off. The solar project is not a distraction. Everything pretty much hinges on the main project. They and we all know that.
Sorry CF but there's a few holes in that last post. Firstly, if the market believes there's a funding concern, and mgt have just confirmed that concern, then it's their job to fix it. They need to do it quickly, and they need to do it with a minimum of harm to all shareholders i.e. dilution. This last point is often missed on mgt. Their job is to serve the interests of ALL shareholders. Not the biggest. Not insiders. Not themselves. Hanno and SF are mgt now. So they serve us and they need to do the best thing by us. By letting the clock run down to September to cash in warrants achieves what exactly? They'd still need to cash the warrants later, so why not do it now? Why risk another timing over-run and have the share price nearer 2p because they've done nothing to allay investor concerns, and have instead created even greater share price destruction due to even less confidence in the project going ahead. Solve the funding issue and create confidence rather than concern. As I've said previously it will also mean the share price is in the 5's for when the EPC contract and/or tariff news drops. This creates a springboard for +10p. We could get the EPC contract, and although it's a +ve step, the sp will still be held back due to the funding concern. And PIs sitting on the sidelines will still be worried that we're low on cash and mgt haven't put their hands in their pockets, asking themselves why? At some point SF will need to cash those options / warrants if the project goes ahead. So do it now.
As for the 250k buyer. Well there's also plenty of sellers so unless the share price is going up it doesn't really mean anything.
Hanno needs to sort the funding and EPC contracts. The funding should have been solved yesterday. The EPC should have been solved months ago. Not what anyone wants to hear, but it's the truth. Hanno needs to focus on the main project and stop f@cking about on the solar side of things until he's got these two things done. Solar has taken our sp backwards. It's not what most of us invested in. And it's their future, not necessarily the future they promised to shareholders. I'm quite convinced we'll double from this level if he can fix the funding and EPC contracts. This is him doing his job, acting in the best interests of his shareholders. The current share price and its trajectory I would say agrees with me. AIMHO GLA
We funded to September end. That's 3 months. Plenty of time within which to hear about the tariff. Any shortfall will be covered easy. Look who we got board. Scott Fletcher has bought millions££ worth of stock. A £200, 000 gap-filling loan ahead of re-rate on tariff news, would be cinch (not to mention it'd protect his investment). And yes, buying up those warrants would be one way.
There has been some good 250, 000 chunk-buying lately - so someone is buying up loose stock. Whoever is selling, imo, os making a bad mistake.
Tariff was always going to be the big negotiation. Following investment, the tariff establishes what level of profit CMEC/ China and partners make; and what degree of savings consumers/ Moz make. The project will happen because it is in everyone's interests - including the World Bank, who need/ want not Moz having near universal access to power but neghbouring countries that are not as resource rich as Moz i.e. Malawi etc.
Keep the faith, as others have said.
Spot on G_G_G. Funding fears can be allayed by buying the warrants up now to show commitment etc. If they don't, what does that show the market??
Agree CF. Thing is we're not just waiting on the tariff though. There's three things Hanno needs to get sorted soon.
1. Funding. This is entirely in his control and to be honest I'm disappointed we have gotten to this place again. It's not as though this is something that's just jumped up out of thin air. As anyone on this board would know I believe the simplest and best solution is for directors to cash in warrants / options. Shows confidence in the project. Gives us much needed cash. Minimises dilution, which has happened at this level in the past for directors and those close to them to participate in. After all it's why they have so many low priced warrants and options. They can't do it again if indeed we are close to getting over the key tariff barrier.
2. EPC contract. This is partly in Hanno's control. The sad reality is this was originally due last year. Then it was 'nearing completion' over 1 month ago. Simply, Hanno needs to get his **** together when it comes to timings and deliver this piece of news already.
3. Tariff. The tariff I always understood would take longer than Hanno's bull**** timings, but it's now 5 months and we haven't heard so much as a fart from EDM and Moz.
Hanno can address investor confidence and funding in one simple move, and improve confidence even further with a signed EPC contract. If he can do this in the next week or so I'm fine to hear more about the solar side of things for another month whilst we wait for EDM to count the cash in their brown paper bags and agree a tariff that's cheaper than what they'd previously agreed (years ago).
No, CF, the politicians get richer, stuff the population.
This is Africa, don`t forget
The SP down here is a pain in the a ss. However, this was bound to happen. The haggling over the tariff is critical. A penny equates to shed loads of additional profit (for CMEC/ China) or additional savings (for the consumer/ Moz).
Am in no doubt the project is happeninng. It is the most advanced project of its type not only in Africa but got to Asia. Large players have already invested plenty and expect to invest more. In turn Moz gets opportunity to create jobs, raise standards of living and generate tax revenues and royalties. And if the country gets richer, so do the politicians.
Daisy, can you please provide details of the projects so we can see if they were at 'construction' phase. Most of the ones I'm familiar with are nowhere near as progressed as our project.
Another one with rose tinted glasses
Daisy1963. Review the details on why they were shelved. No construction activity, likely due to not being viable.
This is why EDM tariff negotiations are so finely balanced, as both parties want to ensure the project will deliver.
Keep researching, you’ll find the answers