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Daisy1963 I have not commented here for a long time but as you mentioned my name, I will. I got this one wrong, it has been a disappointment for a long time in terms of share price and the boards ability to deliver anything. Without any doubt this is the worst performing company I have had the displeasure of owning. Lots of lessons learnt on this one but I am not commenting out of respect for other shareholders. I am annoyed, frustrated and have nothing good to say about the company or the board currently. I hope they can turn my feeling around and do something positive.
CF73
Another member of the pump and dump club
NCCL will soon be dead when the cash runs out, not long to go.
CMEC will not buy out NCCL; this is not how they operate or have ever operated.
What I find interesting is that, that positive article from September 2021, in the ‘Africa Oil and Gas Report’ website, says the following:
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‘Financial Close for the project, located in the coal-rich Tete district, is targeted for H1 2022, with 36months of construction, meaning that the plant should be up and running mid-2025.
https://africaoilgasreport.com/2021/09/power-deficit/proposed-300mw-coal-power-plant-in-mozambique-moves-to-financial-close/
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So, going by that article, FC is intended for H1 2022. What I interpret from this:
1 .A targeted operational start up for the project is mid-2025. This places pressure on CMEC (provided the project is approved/ achieves Financial Close), to have the plant operational by a date that is likely to have been agreed with various parties, namely EDM and Moz State, but perhaps also Malawi, World Bank and other parties involved in the project or in MOMA or with any related energy trade deals.
2. It would appear, that if the plant is to be built and finally up and running, that Financial Close (FC) at H1 2022 is necessary as the absolute limit for the project development stage. They seem to have a good idea of the programme work required and how long it will take and am inferring that the mid-2025 target to get the plant 'up and running' will be based on their concluding these discussions (between CMEC and NCCL specifically) no later than H1, 2022.
3. FC at H1 2022 also aligns with our being funded till date i.e. NCCL is funded till H1, 2022. This is really interesting in my view. I have absolutely no doubt that CMEC and Moz both want the project. But CMEC (and/ or Moz State) can only hold out for so long. H1 2022 for FC (unless a suitable earlier conclusion) is the final date for project development/ negotiations. They need to go into construction immediately following H1 2022 in order to be 'up and running' on time (i.e. 36months construction work from end of H1, 2022, to mid-2025.). And it just so happens that we are funded to end of H1 2022.
As mentioned earlier, some LTHs believe this is headed towards a buyout/ sale in advance of H1 2022 -- where the 'potential alternative solution' [...] 'should be finalised during the quarter.' -- where the potential alternative solution could well be a buyout, in my (and others') opinion (but Do Your Own Research!).
Good luck folks, and especially the LTHs.
Looking closely at the Update:
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“CMEC continues to support the Project and is leading the financing process. In parallel to the Chinese financing process, Ncondezi and CMEC are reviewing potential alternative solutions for the Project which should be finalised during the quarter.”
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NCCL can’t (and shouldn’t be allowed) to incorporate that element – i.e. ‘…potential alternative solutions for the Project which should be finalised during the quarter’ – unless they can show this (i.e. 'potential alternative solutions' which 'should be finalised during the quarter') is somehow actually possible. The statement does not come with the usual 'We cannot guarantee that these discussions will lead to etc etc'. It's a strong statement, pointing to the genuine possibility of an alternative solution.
Given the uncertainties here, it would be difficult for that comment about an 'alternative solution' to get passed the NOMAD without being substantiated in some form. So NCCL must have provided some concrete evidence that this is possible and not mere baseless claims designed to placate the market/ save the SP from further devastation (though we have dropped).
Going by the update, they are reviewing alternative solutions and that it appears there is a strong belief within the company that something could/ should be arranged within the quarter (by end of March, if not earlier).
Some of us LTHs believe that the alternative solution could be a buyout.