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Good luck with research..there is very little to work with so you likely know as much as anyone else. They have had one very small commercial order from STMicro involving two materials . We have no idea of the end customer or use…or for how much the first order was for cash wise. Marketing the sensors that have the materials in is entirely down to STM we have not been told the product that the materials are in but this seems likely..though does not mention nano materials or QDs in the spec. So we don’t even know the STM product for sure.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/12/07/2792565/0/en/STMicroelectronics-reveals-a-new-global-shutter-image-sensor-that-offers-high-resolution-in-a-compact-form-factor-and-low-power-consumption.html
So there is little to go on apart from the bullish guidance by the company and the cashflow breakeven targets and what that would have to mean in sales..which seems rather ambitious.
Be delighted if anyone can add any further detail but having tried I can’t get beyond totally relying on the company narrative and have no independent sources to collaborate what they say. Unfortunately while accepting decent upside from current levels if they deliver on latest guidance , there has been a habit of moving goalposts so it would be good to have something more concrete to support the latest targets. But as you know I am somewhat sceptical as I judge more on past delivery than future promises.
I'm certainly not suggesting they had any information prior to the tender that wasn't in the market. I just wonder if they are, excuse the pun, sensing some good mood music. The research I've been doing recently provides me with optimism but I can't put thoughts on paper yet and it might be nothing you don't already know. Anyone got any tea leaves?
I thought the timing of the initiation of coverage note from the new broker Cavendish who were appointed Dec last year odd as well as the PR push when in reality there was nothing much new to talk about , I thought their price target very generous as there is so little evidence of traction as yet , though their forecast post tender should be higher still as they obviously see far more value in the organic business than the market. Was it timed to cover backsides, don’t see why , directors were participating so pretty sure they are not working on any information not in the market. Might it have put some shareholders off selling ? Maybe , but sensible to treat shop targets with a pinch of salt .but if it did it enabled those that tendered their whole holding like LOAM to get more away at 24p than they might have I guess. I think there is a concerted effort to push the valuation up ..this seems mostly a vanity exercise as the company has never had 3/4 clear funding in place before and has no need to seek funding at all.
The only thing with the Cavendish note on orders is they forecast £8.4m FY to July 2024…this is against the £8.5m forecast by the company Oct 2023 before the first order so they are not factoring in any additional revenue above and beyond the R&d and Samsung contribution. So if anyone thinks there is nailed on business in the next few months it’s news to them too.
Troublesome
You are right, investing in Nanoco for so long has been a rollercoaster ride for us all and many times I've felt sick and wanted to get off.
I'll give you my honest opinion. I think BT is doing a good job. I think the Samsung payout was the right result for the company, but I wasn't happy about the communications in advance.... And, let's just say I really wasn't comfortable when ME sold his shares when he did.. So, I might be optimistic now - more than I've been for a long time - based on everything I'm hearing, but it's not blind faith and I'm prepared to be critical of the company at times.
@Xenon
Forget it - I see you've been 'lurking in the shadows' since 2013.
@Xenon
I don't want to sound combative either but could you describe the personal scars and false dawns that you've experienced while invested in thius company - apologies if I've missed something in your background and for my interference.
Kooba, without wanting to sound combative, I wonder it could be seen as confidence by the company its own near term prospects. They've been making positive noises for quite a while now, and yes we've all got the scars and have seen a lot of false dawns. But after many years working with STM developing materials that have finally reached production maybe they are feeling confident that there will be positive news in the coming months.
Something that I spent a lot of time thinking about before the tender was why they would have been happy with / endorsed their own Financial Adviser and joint Corporate Broker Cavendish's bullish forecast prior to the 24p tender. I couldn't get my head round the timing. It felt I was being talked out of taking 24p as the forecast was much higher - albeit I know broker forecasts are usually optimistic. So.. I considered they might have been covering themselves, i.e. the tender genuinely was a premium to the SP at that time, but if positive developments followed they could rightly say they guided the market to expect good things...
But as you know I'm an optimist!
...????
Rattled i.e. confused and upset.
@Kooba - Any ideas for the rush ?
Surprised @ BC's comment as I've experienced many far more "rattled" of late.
They are now nearly a third through the committed funds and at this rate will be done in another 20 business days at this rate …they just seem in a bit of a rush to get it done when they have authorisation till December.
Do I , what makes you think that..it was just a commenting that with all the massive amounts of share buybacks currently ongoing in the U.K. market I am not aware of another that buys a fixed amount of stock a day irrespective of volume..if you know of one do tell.
You seem a bit rattled Koobz?
Well there’s the print.out Cavendish have bought another £99ks worth which again looks like over half the pre print volume…very odd way of going about it most buybacks restrict volume participation so they they don’t chase their tail and get best value for shares holders.
This seems very aggressive now.
Worth looking back at the Edison note on the STMicro deal 4 years ago..
They do comment on there being a minimum size commercial order ..which has never been disclosed, but the Nov order did not move the 2024 revenue forecasts.
https://www.edisongroup.com/research/supply-agreement-with-stmicroelectronics/26954/
I doubt STMicro would behave in the same manner as Samsung who are probably one of the most sued defendants in IP infringement cases in the US courts.
But with big companies focus can change and new approaches to markets and demand can change. STM have been collaborating for quite a while with Nanoco now so I don’t think they will just do a Samsung , but I don’t know who else they might be working with..that’s the thing with confidentiality agreements difficult to know if there were any parallel or internal developments ongoing. Noparticular reason to think so ..but one very small order in six months since validation for the 2 materials ( thought there was to be 3 ?) for SWIR sensors with the Gen 1 materials does not appear that strong yet and with the non toxic Gen 2 s already advancing its difficult to see the ramp up in demand just yet. The advantage of the Gen 2 materials will be that the IP is better protected by Nanoco core patents I understand.
Well I suppose if anyone has complete faith in BT there should be nothing to worry about.
He did say that he wouldn't be 'bullied' again and he has been shown to play a mean 'game of bluff' cough, cough !
Surely there can be no doubts that he has every eventuality covered, although he does seems to benefit personally no matter what happens.
Kooba, yep fair point. I think we have to hope that what happened with Samsung was a life lesson for us and that we are no longer so trusting. I guess there’s a degree of faith required that restrictions in contract and legal terms - and in knowledge shared - reduces the likelihood a partner takes advantage of us again.
IDL, great post.
I’ve been doing a bit of research recently as I realised my understanding of the relationship between us and STM, and between our separate products & processes, was lacking. You are probably way ahead of me. Busy right now but would like to chat more about this.
Lol - Kooba
Terrorwit will just love that quote !
Imagine that. 199m shares, big news from STM on a long-term contract. Value of the company jumps to £100m or 50p+
“My concern here is that Nanoco have been supplying dots in small quantities for an initial (and successful) evaluation programme with STM electing to produce dots in-house for commercial production.”
But surely that can’t happen in commercial joint venture agreements using Nanoco IP ! Oh !
“There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.”
― George W. Bush
Not strong buy, that was an accident haha
199m shares in issue will be beautiful :D
The BIG challenge is getting some news to prove value.
For long-term holders, if this goes up on another exciting development like Apple or compensation, sell the lot for heaven's sake! It will come back down again. If this went up to 60p again, I sincerely hope all LTHs would bail and head to the pub.
2d - a new poster. Welcome to the board!
Don't see the point of your question.
...in house for commercial production.
Went on for too long!