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Nanogeddon: For me, share price represents confirmation of share value. I began investing in Nanoco over 10 years ago for long term gain. I want the price to go up but have no intention to sell at this time. It is an asset. Why would anyone not want asset appreciation?
There's a tendency to find that the harder you work, the more luck you will have.
Others seem to think that if they didn't have bad luck, they'd have no luck at all.
Anyone feeling lucky today ?
Anyone get the feeling that new poster Hello Jello is working for Samsung trying to create uncertainty and keep the price low for some cheap settlement offer?
@Nanogeddon: The focus on share price is more about what it will look like after the trial in September. I really don’t think so that the people on this board invested in Nanoco are wanting to sell out now or if Nanoco is in the 40p range.
Again September is rapidly approaching and selling out now is like quitting a 1000m race at the 900m mark.
The main drag on price has been RG - and if you look at the trades which brought the share price down yesterday morning they were not even big in size.
Everyone let us drink tea, have faith in Mintz and Nanoco’s case and leadership and enjoy the ride.
The focus on share price by most investors who contribute to this board is an indicator of their desire to sell rather than a desire for long term profit streams. If that is the case, there will always be ample supply of sellers here to supply the needs of anyone who wishes to buy within a small margin above the current share price. Are we still wondering why the share price has not risen?
Frostbar - that may be so, but how long are you prepared to wait? The market makers will set a price the day after the announcement, adjusting as trades and further news come in. The momentum traders will immediately start adding to whatever vector has so far emerged, playing the volatility.
The sp can react fast in ways that aren't obvious - it's the balance of expectation vs achievement that counts, and when the expectation is high and the achievement is said to be great but not actually provable, there's enormous scope for surprise. The accounts are completely out of sync with this process
Hellojello great post.
Investors obsess over risk. They forget its opposite number: luck, and just how important it is. Morgan Housel speaks very eloquently on the topic.
Wouldn't we be able to reasonably guess the settlement amount once nano accounts are released? There wouldn't be much to use to camouflage a large cash injection.
I think it's very hard for investors to accept quite how much of their outcome is due to luck. Tied to this is the cognitive bias - when I win I'm clever, when I lose, I'm unlucky. In practice we're always working at the margin, with blind luck forcing the majority of our wins and losses.
On another question, if there's a settlement, I would expect Samsung to insist on confidentiality. It's normal practice - they have a long pathway ahead of such cases, and they certainly don't want other litigants to get an idea of the terms they'll accept.
In that case I expect the market to assume Nano was done over, and got significantly less than they wanted, and so will price the share accordingly. Don't count that chicken just yet!
I'm sure they'd work with an OEM if one wanted to pursue the technology amerloque. The problem that immediately jumps out when thinking of using quantum dots in circuits though is heat. While optical computing is catching on and there are some large scale examples around now optical components are still used in conjuction with tradtional electrical semiconductors and they get very hot.
(1) I believe in Nanoco stock, but I recognize that, while it offers great opportunity, it is riskier than many other stocks. If Nanoco represented a large portion of RG's investments, he is wise to diversify and take profits while he can, especially if he has an opportunity to invest up front in promising startups. IQE does look promising, though it is not a startup. There seem to be a number of small, potentially disruptive companies. The recent pull back in stocks has also raised many opportunities.
(2) Quantum dot and Heat Wave competition is also rapidly increasing. Does anyone know if Nanoco expects to use its infrared technology for Photonics in Circuitry, which improves chip performance by replacing many electrical connections with infrared optical connections? STMicro seems to have interest in applying this technology to in a new semiconductor joint venture with Global Foundries.
Good post HenryHistorian. Useful to remember that perfect timing is near impossible.
I still believe this will probably settle unless there is no common ground on a reasonable royalty, or if Samsung strongly believe they can prove no infringement or appeal the validity.
Samsung's attempts in the docket to find cracks are probably to improve their negotiating position.
I hold strongly and there are two reasons for that:
1. I don’t think Nanoco would have embarked on a year long campaign against Samsung if they didn’t sincerely believe that Samsung has lot to answer for - and pay for. I also don’t believe that they would have found a litigation funder if other sophisticated parties wouldn’t share Nanoco’s view. So far the Mintz team has been absolutely switched on - if they keep up the good work we are with a very good chance.
2. I recall vividly BT’s confidence in the Edinson May interview - confidence in the case and confidence that a win would be transformational for Nanano and I seem to recall that he mentioned “multiples of share price” - I don’t think BT had a share price in the range of 34-37 in mind when he said that.
Again some CEOs really hype their company but BT in my personal view is not a “hyper” so to speak.
I was frustrated today as I made two top ups last week at ca 36.6 and 37.5 and if I had waited a bit longer I could have entered at 35… even my top up at 35.5 this morning could have been a bit better.
However as someone who has worked in asset management for many years I know that the ideal entry point is rarely found - but hey if my hunch is correct and IF we win in September the share price could easily be in the 70s or 80s.
BTW: Yes Samsung can appeal but Nanoco can start getting injunctions in some territories so I don’t think that Samsung will carry on fighting as than both the PTAB verdict and the court verdict would clearly show them in what kind of mess they are.
It’s a common cognitive bias to assume that high net worth individuals and instis somehow know something we don’t or have an intrinsically better investing strategy than us lowly PIs. Truth is they are just as prone to mistakes as the rest of us, and are playing a very different game to us (remember most funds report quarterly and so trading in and out to crystallise profit, even if they know it’s headed one way, is fairly common, especially if the rest of the portfolio isn’t doing too well).
PIs enjoy very few advantages in the stock market. But the one luxury we undoubtedly have is time. We do not need to report quarterly to shareholders, and sell promising stocks to realise profit and look good on our headline figures. We can sit and wait for years if needs be.
I feel very strongly buy and hold will yield something pretty special here (sorry if that sounds a bit rampy for a certain member of this board).
What would they be informed about though? They know just as much as us on here about the Samsung trial. If they had some kind of inside information it would be illegal to trade on that, which whilst possible is fairly unlikely.
This is a small-cap, prices are always high volatile.
The board could probably double the share price tomorrow if it released a bullish RNS stating exactly how many billion it was requesting in damages and how confident it was about winning. But obviously they can't because that's not how you do litigation.
@ Nanonano: If I remember correctly on the day of the PTAB verdict announcement during London working hours RG sold shares. Even back then I thought this does not make sense…
If he had held on for one more day he would have realised much more money….again I speak with the benefit of hindsight but this past sell would speak against RG knowing more than us PIs.
I'm not so sure investors are concerned about short term gains, more that someone like RG will be better informed than most. My nose always starts twitching when RG or LOAM start selling their stock.
There is still a chance N loses at trial and the share price plummets. So maybe it's a very cautious wish to take some profits.
Hi Nigwitty, Sammy, I topped up again this morning and am happy to have done so - but still RG’s actions make no sense to me. Well I am not a shareholder in his funds so maybe should be too upset by his sells.
In less than 100 days time Nanoco will have settled or received a trial verdict which, barring a trial loss, could very plausibly leave the SP many multiples higher than it is currently.
In light of that, if certain shareholders want to sell that's up to them. Although it's naturally dispiriting to see one's shares go down in value, it should have zero effect on where we will be in 3 months time.
If you have top-up funds, buy now while the price is cheap!
RG strikes me as a 1000 m runner who abandons the race at the 900m mark whilst being in the lead.
Eventually managed to get in at 35.1 and 35.3 weirdly the order was split on my behalf but hey-ho, better than not getting a top up.
Picked up a few at 34.9 just. I’m with Halifax.
Having been trying for openningpost placing on III & managed to get some at 34.754.
Had also been looking at RG buying a position in IQE as well.
Have been a shareholder in IQE at arounf 31p & had sold in the 70's
Have to wait & see
I remember IQE did a placing at 106p in the past.
I think that S may well settle just prior to the pretrial/trial
ATB
I'm trying to buy some of what he's offloading but can't strike a deal... anyone else finding that?