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Mobiles in 2026 does not justify materials for millions of sensors in 2023-on, also remember that was delayed by a year. What was the earlier statement from the company about the commercial order- first use of its dots in a commercial product wasn't it?
But i thought we had been clearly guided to mass adoption was very much a gen 2 materials thing and we got the timescales on those with both parties today.
Would they be buying gen 1 materials to go in mobiles now?
Mobiles in 2026…..
I’d rather we’d committed to paying a dividend over the next 3yrs by which time we may have some orders to sustain it. To me, cash in the bank for a firm like Nano who can’t invest it in the business for a reasonable return is effectively valueless.
"Normally we are told when a product has launched"
Didn't hear him say that, I did hear him say that normally companies tend to tell you (e.g. the wider market rather than Nanoco themselves) when their product contains a certain technology. He also reiterated that they have no idea who the end user and application is.
Apple don't tend to be too forthcoming about the tech in their devices, and they certainly wouldn't want it too public that the sensors are using lead-based materials, no matter how minute the quantities. We do know they were still exploring Nanoco's heatwave dots post-June 2019, which of course doesn't mean they subsequently found their way into a device.
If it isn't the AVP, what is the most likely end use?
Ha.. “to 13p cash per share..£23m divided by 200m shares”
That was of course £26m the cash the company will have pre the £3m buyback by 200m shares!
Ah ..logic hey.
Was it logical the shares were trading at the cash level for months and even a discount ahead of announcing the actual mechanism for distribution? We have the same underlying business left owned by the remaining shares outstanding so that concentrates ownership sure ..but it does remove the backstop of 18p+cash per share which has been the basis of valuation for much of the past year and takes that figure down to 13p cash per share..£23m divided by 200m shares..thats math! Ahead of the share buy back that is which we don’t know when that will start ..but again if the buy shares at a premium to 13P then it dilutes the cash per share further.
Has the distribution largely stopped people selling as they want to tender and need to hold the full position to entitle them to sell 38.5% or more?? Has the tender encouraged some buyers who think great we can buy shares at 20-21p and sell them at 24p? It seems it might possibly encouraged by a number on here and elsewhere saying they wont tender.
That kind of short term money will be hoping to jump out of the balance i guess ? At what level? Down to where to make a turn? And as much as who will sell…who will be buying after the tender is done?
Personally i think the risk reward of holding a company at 19p with 18p cash backing is better than 19p with 13p cash backing irrespective of the concentration in the underlying business that has been apparently illogically valued at next to nothing for months.
As you say we will know after the 9th April. But many private investors will only be able to watch if they have tendered their holdings as the corporate action is extended and the funds not paid out until the 25th..maybe another reason why some are selling now?
Btw the 17p idea is just a reasoned guess and quite generous relative to the cash backing and average EV we have seen , so they could of course trade lower …or higher! But without actually thinking about the facts it must be difficult to have a clue.
Also why would they sell below the tender price after. You are not logical. Like Gindog said and got shouted down for not agreeing with you. The market will adjust the price according to supply and demand if no sellers below 24p then the price will rise.
It helps in these situations i promise you.
Lets see what the price becomes after tender, unlike you I don't try and predict where it will be. You like your maths.
Quick one for bolshy
“one thing i don't get at the moment is people are selling below 24 pence seems strange.”
Well maybe just maybe they figure the shares will adjust post the tender to let’s say the 17p level .
Now they can sell 38.5% maybe a bit more at 24p . Eg .let’s say they hold 100k shares to keep it simple.lets say they sell 45% at 24p =£10800,but are left with 55000 at 17P worth £9350 immediately after the tender.that would add up to £20150 or 20.15p equivalent.
Or they sell all of them how at 22p getting £22000.
A few variables there of course but hope it help you understand why some might choose to sell now.i know its complicated this adjustment business.
Nanonano; because he prefaced it with "normally we are told when a product has launched"
AVP HAS (undescore) launched and they have not been told. Of course there is scope for in AVP but that means not only have they not been told, but that the order in November would have been processed, deliverered, then processed on receipt to be integrated into a module(s) before being put in the sensor module before going into the device [AVP] that was launching on the same timeframe. In my view that's not at all likely.
He followed up saying the indication is SWIR adoption in mobiles in 2026. The usual process is gradual build of low volume orders towards mass production. This for me aligns with Gen 1 gradual increase in supply through '24 to BE in FY25 and adoption in mobiles in the hundreds of millions of units in 2026.
@Bucheron
Go bury yourself - please note only one r.
" BT said he doesn't believe their products are in any devices on sale today....so in my view that rules AVP out."
I believe you're referring to BT's response to a question they were asked about November's material supply. What he said is that bearing in mind timescales for processing material and incorporating parts into modules it's very possible that the product is not yet on the market.
As they've already stated they don't know the end use and who the customer of their customer is, then how he can state with any certainty one way or the other whether its on the market or not?
Ha ha ha …at least i manage to have a view and not be so irrelevant that i just criticise others but have absolutely nothing to back anything up.. But well done you calling others ignorant from the high position you are in. Very funny indeed.
Ngr
Kooba the slide pack indicated Gen 2 is guided to enter production in 2028
Think he says something different in the Q&A’s …isnt it always the way!!
2 years from the start of 2 year development plus 6-9 months scaling.
Now you mention it that would take us past CY 2026..but sure that is what BT said.
Runcorn production line by Apple wasn't the display line but assuming the Sensor line.
TS yes it did sound like one of the customers had the Fab equipment in the broom cupboard, and floated the idea that they were willing to sell it on the cheap to help in the development process.
Bucheron
“Kooba what I think is not relevent.”
Agreed.
Moreover
My recollection is the Runcorn production line was paid for by an unnamed American company, thought to be Apple, looking to buy material from Nanoco. Apple did not go ahead for reasons, we were told, that had nothing to do with Nanoco.
Dow also built a production line in Korea to produce QD under licence from Nanoco. But that was never used either.
Its just another 'expectation' to break even in 2025.
The new Fab can't be just a white elephant surely given the need to produce wafers to suit STM.
Looks like it may be sometime though before we know what ice cream is required.
Anyway maybe some comfort can drawn from the fact that we've been described recently as a world leader, U.K tech pioneer, a leading player, supply chain partner and wait for it .... ' an invisible enabler '.
BT says that we can produce dots for use ' anywhere where a machine needs to see'.
You're right "display" let's keep away from that bag of nails. Gen2 all seems to be around temperature range, so cars imo.
Kooba what I think is not relevent. I don't waste my time on such nonsense. I just make money.
-Nanonano BT said he doesn't believe their products are in any devices on sale today....so in my view that rules AVP out.
-Kooba the slide pack indicated Gen 2 is guided to enter production in 2028
More orders this year from Gen 1 and guiding BE in FY25 and mobile adoption in 2026 must all be from Gen 1
(Display has potential but let's not go down that rabbit hole....)
Kooba, I also put myself though the pain of the presentation, but if I was new to the company I would think YES this looks like a good bet. However, being a LTI all I could think off maybe BT should go and work for Hartleys. As you rightly say, how can the board state breakeven in 2025 on the information given within the presentation. Maybe they know something is come in the display arena ?
Another concern is whether they are repeating the same error by first investing in a production line for Quantum Dots for TVs without securing a contract, and now establishing a Fab for an uncertain future. Time will indeed reveal the outcome in another two years or so.