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Sorry
Mr H 31st of July warranty expiry date set for a reason , back then ????
Your logic dictates that third parties tipsters dictate the sp. That cannot be right in any circumstances. The sp will rise on buys and verified news, sometimes rumour. There simply weren’t enough buys to generate a 25% increase after 3pm. AIM largely ignored buy/sell ticker movement anyway. I believe the 31 July warranty expiry date was set for a reason. There is a large gap to the next and final (huge) round of Ws which suggests a period of changed direction/stabilisation or something else.
havre to agree with that ferrisc. not taking issue with those who have suggested it, but the hypothesis just doesnt make sense to me .its logical conclusion is that t/o cant happen whilst warrants exist, which is clearly not correct.they just get factored in in the overall figures.the reason for the rise could just be the tip, but imo its something more.just speculation of course.
I must agree the rise on Thursday was down to a leak . there is a big RNS inbound imo .
With respect Lofas I disagree. Anyone can see the shares in issue and the options outstanding from the RNS’s. Personally I have a total shares number that assumes every option share is exercised so lazily, I assume there are currently circa 1.8Bn shares that need to be taken into account when doing any calculations around future EPS, buyout figures per share etc.
I presume there will be an RNS on Monday detailing how many of the 9M Share options were exercised. Iirc (?) the next options don’t expire until over halfway through the decade. There aren’t that many left now either.
Onwards and upwards, viva la Melody!
What other reason then MrH?
If you were watching on Thursday, the tip was announced at 3pm and immediately the SP rose to 5p, which the tipster said to hold at. 25% maybe but in money terms it was only about 1p.
Anything else would be a pretty big co-incidence.
well i would agree with that, although it could be the reason.just seems too large a response.some of the trades were genuinely large (not as measured by the normal aim yardstick of bigger than normal) .
Id be amazed if any sp spiked by 25% due to a tip by a third party source. AIMO of course. I’m sometimes wrong
ok lofas thanks for that also.have to say I'm struggling a bit with that one,although it does now make sense of some of the more enigmatic posts.i can understand the reasoning and its intriguing,but I'm not too sure about it.many thanks for the explanation though.hope you are right of course! ,
thanks for that albert.thats inexactly my view.i suspect the warrant expiry and the s/p uplift are just coincidences and that the main cause was the recommendation,although it does seem a pretty impressive response to the same.perhaps time will tell.
Part 3,
AP,Italian , the hint I think is with the exercise date and the anticipated move in Aug. The warrant, when exercised, will have an impact on number of shares in circulation. That may be an obstacle for takeover bid as Total number of shares Is unknown. The size of the warrant is less significant than the existence of the warrant where exercise date is close to a formal proposal. IMO
Part 2
I suppose you could exercise and sell immediately and make a very fast buck. But I would guess that with options/warrants there may well some clause which forbids it within a certain period of time. again IMO.
I don't pretend to know all the mysteries of the stock market Italian, because I certainly don't.
But the SP spiked on Thursday simply due to a share tip by an apparently fair tipster. The following day's warrants had no connection. As there were only 9 million of them it made next to no difference re dilution. And if you can buy at 1.2p with the shares currently around 5p then it's a no-brainer. In fact questions might have been asked if they hadn't been exercised i.e. is there a problem we don't know about.
Having said all that I assume they were exercised. No doubt Melody will let us know in due course.
All IMO
im not the sharpest tool in the box i know, but I'm struggling see how the exercise of the warrants whichwere due to expire on the31st would be a trigger for the share rise, which is, i think ,what some have in mind. the warrants have been in the money for a long time and could have been exercised at greater profit than now on several occasions at any time before end of yesterday. if they have been exercised i would expect the s/p to fall (more shares at lower cost etc)not rise.if the thought is manufacture a rise on a recommendation and then forward sell, well i suppose thats possible,but not terribly convincing to my mind. more than happy to be put right if my thinking is wide of the mark,as I'm puzzling over this.