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Errr- and i was referring to your illiteracy- but it would appear your sense of irony is as acute as your investment acumen!
Chatbot2
I was referring to you regarding gobbledegook.
Agree a great point made!
TGTD
"also attending yesterday's Results Meeting have to say sine of the nonsense he's spouting is plain gobbledegook gook alot of effort for little return share price diwn slightly, but relatively low volatility."
A great point well made
Share price moved just 2% in 5 days and shorters are panicking nevermind time to close thise positions I would suggest far more upside than downside here.
Tuan2
Hi Dori. Hope you are well and enjoying being in the board of daddy's bank. If you need any help with your written English or principles of corporate finance let me know.
It won't react as when it happens because that's already baked in, unfortunately sentiment is shot to pieces, and sentiment always over rides results
Marabou
Agree the market will react as and when the savings crystallise in the form on the next trading updates. There are no guarantees on both timing and amount while the share price has remained relatively stable.
Hi chaps decided to inves t and i can see if intrest rates stay as they are or even drop 1% by the rnd of the year , Metro will be back in profit and should see a up in sp price . ill keep ploughing mone y in here and wait a couple of years i can see 100p sp in 2026
Some laugh this chat re takeover code, shareholder protection etc. Laughable again to even try and suggest small shareholders are protected. Oh wait though, all these savings that we know are coming will substantially affect the share price, again lol. If it was going to it would have already, and as we've seen this week, surpassing market "expectations", again laughable because the "market" was proactive investors lol, will not make any difference to metro SP. Friday fun if nothing else from some on this chat, because time and time and time again, WRONG
Chatbot2
You really need to move on and close that short position.
If anyone checks your profile they will see that you recently joined and all posts are negative on Metro Bank.
Same as Cyberpuppy well not quite at least you don't have over 550+ posts since 2021 for over 3 years all negative and only posted on one BB, Metro Bank, lol!
Apologies connectivity issue affecting typos...but you get the gist!
Agree than he's here just trying to decamp Metro Bank privablybanxious over his short position imploding.
I also attending yesterday's Results Meeting have to say sine of the nonsense he's spouting is plain gobbledegook gook alot of effort for little return share price diwn slightly, but relatively low volatility.
Clearly he can't distinguish between a Bank of England intervention versus a shareholder using their majority holding to force through a take out at below 30p...The first scenario occurred and is unlikely to reoccur while the second conflicts with current Conpany Law and minority share holder protection.
Maybe he thinks Gilinksi will phone tge Bank of England to ask them to put pressure on institutional investors to sell out to him sub 30p
As for his capital calculations plain bizarre, capital buffers restored, £80m cost reductions feed through to profits. Underlying loss £1+m versus statutory profit £3m mainly one off refi cost c.£2m as reported.
Deposits up, lending marginally down, other all given last October's turbulence much better than many of us would though would be the case. A £11m loss 67% below prior year is very easy to turn to a profit given the penciled on cost reductions.
What is your points when you only post negative on Mtro share and try to tell people for? As nobody interested in any your lost and if someone followed what people said in here so if they lose their money that is their mistake. There is nothing free lunch and drump and pump post like your only support your owe agenda.
The second more interesting point regards the need for capital. Firstly should note the assumption re profitability i referenced the numbers Frumkin alluded to yesterday- i,e. a loss in 2024, low single digit ROE in 2025 (which with CET1 at less than £1b probably means at best £20m profit) and then meaningful profits from 2026. So its not me saying that even with cost reduction the business does not generate meaningful organic capital. That is the guidance from the bank. The point you then make, is that the bank wont need that capital as long as the cost reduction atleast limits the losses. That is a reasonable assumption. Even if you use my maths, of £30m loss in Q1 followed by a £15m loss in each quarter thereafter, you get to a £75m loss for 2024, which wouldn't take Tier1 below the 10.8% requirement. But that would imply no additional RWA growth, which is not commensurate with the strategy of redeploying assets into RWA dense, higher risk lending. And it also implies that a) the bank can stem the bleeding that was happening in low cost deposits even before October, despite the fact that the business model for bringing them in was all about service and convenience- a model they have now taken a hatchet to; and b) the business can credible "pivot" to high risk lending and not mess it up. Given as i said ratesetter was the big play there last time(and now they are closing it), and that commercial carries a huge exposure to a deteriorating credit environment under IFRS 9- witness the provisions in 2020- you really are taking a risk on a strategy being executed by this management team. Given that in the last 4 years the bank have burnt through 40% of the £600m of core equity they inherited, and have yet to print an underlying profit despite base rates going up from 0.1% to 5.25%; and they have had to revise every single projection they have ever made, including the guidance they gave in November, then that is some punt...
TGTD- two points re your response. Firstly, as noted the recapitalisation was indeed a "vote" with a gun to the head- the chairman's letter essentially said, vote yes or we go into resolution. While there is less of a "gun" this time, essentially there is a 75% controlling interest across Galinski and the cabal that were able to buy in at 30p too (and so have the same incentives as him going forwards). No one outside that group, institutional or otherwise, has any power to stop anything they want to push through. Which is why such things are typically not allowed under the takeover code, and why this is unfortunately not a business you can invest in and expect the retail shareholders interests to be considered- doesn't mean you can't take a punt riding on Galinski's coattails, but you do have to consider if your interests are aligned...
Why this share so cheap compared with other Bank with the same revenue ? Is this big debt or trouble in finance to run the bank at moments? Is this lost customers and closed branches everywhere? Non of that at moment and bank will have first ever real profits over 5 years time so just leave it sometimes to settle down as all of troubles have passed and it is time to recover.
RNS show number improvement and nothing can kill it at moment as everything are on tracks and it will come back its true values .
Longfell
Reported.
Chatbot2
" As you ought to understand, the takeover code typically requires any investor taking over 30% of the voting rights to make an offer to buy out all existing shareholders."
Putting this to a vote is one thing having institutional investors forced to accept at 30p and well below their average share price holdings is another.
Your basically saying I'm holding a gun to their heads you will be forced to sell at the price I dictate that's the part your implying.
A democratic vote is one thing having the proposal forced through is another.
As for another rights issue your implying rhe business won't turn to a underlying profit and also won't generate sufficient capital to grow the lending base.
You need to factor in both the £50m savings target by Q2 and the further £30m identified for this year primarily through job cuts, reduced branch opening hours, and changes to back office process with automation but mainly the first two whichvare quocker to realise the savings.
After the one off redundancy costs your left with £80m effectively flowing straight to the bottom line. Whether the mgt team achieve the full £80m savings this year is one thing but assuming they do that will boost the share price.
Why should Gilinksi take Metro Bank private when he can simply sit back, slash costs, at some pont the share price will rise and he can reduce his ownership percentage, banking profits through teducing his stake holding and reducing his risk exposure..This has been his modus operandi in the past..While Metro Bank remains listed it becomes a more attractive take over target. A private company is less likely to attract buyers as its harder to value hence why Metro Bank will remain listed.
TGTD I am sure Cyberdog he does not need me to speak for him but for the benefit of people who might take you seriously, i will explain the rules around this. As you ought to understand, the takeover code typically requires any investor taking over 30% of the voting rights to make an offer to buy out all existing shareholders. That is the reason why all Metro shareholders, including institutional investors, were asked to vote through a rule 9 waiver in October, thereby foregoing this obligation. So the short answer to your question is that institutional investors have already voted in massive dilution at 30p a share.
The smarter question you could have asked, is, if Galinski wanted full ownership why didn't he do it at that point- when everyone would pretty much have had to accept 30p? My suggested answer is that Galinski clearly wants to hedge his bets as much as possible. If he can effectively control the bank at 52% with his "useful idiot" in the key role, why take on more. But if the bank needs more capital, which it surely does now if it wants to grow and is unable to generate meaningful organic capital until 2026 (according to managements plans), then you are in for another round of equity raising. Given the ownership structure, a rights issue mathematically increases Galinski's control in line with his majority holding. He would not necessarily be forced to take private- i.e. he could just put in his 52% of the new equity, but he isn't going to do that at a price that substantially dilutes his current position, and without his support a rights issue doesn't fly. But my observation would be that the regulator and listing authorites would, I am sure, be more comfortable having the company taken private rather than continue to have the embarrassment of a UK listed bank having a guy put himself, and various members of his family, on the board, particularly given some of the issues Mr Galinski had with the US regulator back in 2005....
I was wrong that the stock would rise after the results. trying to catch the bottom is of course hard. The results were better than I expected, especially the deposit figures, I expected 14.5 billion and stagnation despite the successfull campaign. it turned out deposit is 16.5 Billion as of February. the guidance was lowered so that must be why some are disapointed, but overall these are better results than I expected. oversold?
Cyberpuppy
Yeh that's right explain how institutional investors would react to a 30p buy out offer from Gilinksi and what precedent and regulations apply under Company Law...that's assuming you can read lol!
LegalBeagleUK
Minority shareholder protection go and do some research on UK company law and while your at it change your user name!
Tg2d
''and given the growing M&A activity in the mid sized bank sector.''
forget that - Metro needs to fail or succeed on it's own.
I am not sure that a £233 million valuation of Metro qualifies it as a mid sized bank . It is very small change even for a small bank to be able to purchase.
Even VM is being valued at getting on for £3 Billion
Let’s just all have a biscuit and come back in May!
i predicted that level of outflow 3 months ago. 4 days on the share price has shelved 8.5%. the mkt doesn't buy this 'shrink your way to greatness' bs. metro bank has no usp anymore and they could attract customers away from their existing banks before when they they were at your beck and call - now they are the same they will have no chance. a branch i visited said their safety deposit box customers had left in droves, as weekend s visits not available (about 15% had closed and some their accounts too) which very bad for branch cost coverage their main point of installing them - all this ramping nonsense is just ****-gravy, sorry, but it is !