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Numbers-"It would take several years to enroll and complete a HABP/VABP Phase III trial and the cost is expected to be tens of millions of dollars." (from RNS about meeting minutes))Thats not 200m - we spent around 60m dollars from memory on the 2 phase 3 trials- I posted that some time ago
Also you miss out that if this trial were to succeed it would allow iclaprim to be used for TWO application ,ABSSI AND HABP.
I also believe the loan from hercules to motif bio inc still exists and the first use of any proceeds will be to pay that off- from memory 6m dollars .So i reckon if we could get 20m quid that would equate to a 2p net cash per share.
That is what I am hoping for . I suspect IVY is still around but not engaging with the pointless whingeing ....
Of course we will know soon enough as motif will run out of cash in APRIL. iT IS ONE BIG GAMBLE NOW
Then treat it as a punt imo
Numbers- thanks for a really excellent summary and commmentary. Much appreciated. I will read a few times to get a better understanding- I may put some more in. Best regards.
SL100 - There are 485 million MTFB shares, so the current mcap is around £630K. I cannot remember all the facts and figures from 1 year + ago and our friend SP250 has generated lots of posts to trawl through so it it would take ages to search back through them. There were a few knowledgeable guys including doctors and a guy called something like IvySpivey who knew about medical trials. Taking a drug to stage 3 trials costs $100s of millions. MTFB spent this money to get Iclaprim to stage 3 with FDA. The FDA voiced their concerns about not enough tests done on liver toxicity tests, so more stage 3 trials need to conducted before there was a chance of approval. I'm not in the medical field, but I didn't think liver toxicity was that big a problem. Okay we only have 1 liver, but if the drug doesn't kill a patient (from what I remember nobody died taking it) the liver repairs itself after a recovery period. So further stage 3 trials were necessary - might take 1 year + to conduct and cost $200m but MTFB don't have enough funds.
If a big pharma comes along, drug has passed most of stage 3 - just might need to spend another $200m to ensure drug isn't overly toxic to the livers of patients. How much is a big pharma likely to pay for Iclaprim and all the current stage 1-3 research/test results that may have already cost $500m or more? I don't know, but they probably want to get it as cheap as possible!
485 million shares at 1p each would cost anybody interested in Iclaprim around £5m. So is Iclaprim and maybe $500m worth of research worth £5m, £10m, £15m or £20m? Is there anybody even interested in Iclaprim at any cost? That is the current £630K question!
Thanks Kettle- appreciate your views. I think you’re right most longer term holders appear to have switched off. Anyway let’s hope.
No sensible answer I can afford to lose £550 in the hope of a miracle, my earlier losses make it look a worthwhile punt in case I pull an Ace. If not at least I have been pro active not just licking my wounds if other Lth did the same it might be a different party. Not much of an answer I know!
Hi Kettle- long term holder averaged down significantly.
Some here have suggested 2-4p but rationale not clear as to why. Any thoughts? There seems only a few of us here- leaving aside the permanent poster.
381,944 was mine I stuck to the £500 ish I said but would need a whole lot more really being a Lth. Lol.
OK Kettle, I bought 55,777 shares to add to the original 22,000 LTH. It cost £80 and brought my average buying price down from around 13p to 0.4p.
I might actually make a few quid if a miracle happens and a buyer comes along. If not it is another £80 lost at the AIM casino.
Let’s ramp the sp up what have you got to lose in comparison to gain?