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@papucel
"Please help me to get my head around my original note; how do you see an Amazon intervention if any?"
----At this conjuncture, the cat is out of the bag and we shall soon discover the real players. No reason to speculate about anything.
I simply don't want to nudge anyone in any direction. If you have confidence in MRW, then nothing should change. The expected value of your investment is equally weighted to the upside as well as down until the deadline. So anyone taking a punt now is doing exactly that, taking a punt. That is neither an investment nor a trade.
@meshtrader Please help me to get my head around my original note; how do you see an Amazon intervention if any?
"A hint of a second bidder will take this to the 3 mark in no time." I fully agree with the statement, who do you think it may be?
tx
@bendipal1
Personally, I welcome constructive viewpoints in an effort to detect angles and gaps in my own analysis.
Your post today suggested a biased view by a mere reference to a 3rd party report, which actually doesn't say anything as we don't have access to hard data. That hard data will only be made available once the quarter results are in. At least the data on the side of MRW and each of the other competitors.
The very same article is stating MRW trade is up by a whopping 9% since same time 2019. Indeed, such figures in isolation are meaningless unless benchmarked against the rest of the competition. Still, your statement, however, comes across as bearish without much proof. This is why I was intrigued to look up your past posts. Now that we are on the topic, I would like to hear what your definition of "colossal debt" is? In fact, let me make it easier for you. What is the NAV per share for MRW? That way, I will get a better picture of you reasoning.
Anyone can post anything on these boards, but as all of our comments are public, I believe we have a duty to conduct rigorous research before publishing and stating "facts".
Which is relevant to what point. exactly?
This is from one your previous MRW posts: "MRW's colossal debt mountain of £2.8bn doesn't exactly help sentiment either."
---
Are you for real? lol
MRW's latest trading figures yoy aren't exactly encouraging.
If anyone takes them over they will still have to compete with the discounters, and we all know who have been winning that battle over the past decade and more. Food retailing in the UK is not the same as in the US as Walmart found out after they bought ASDA and have now been trying to get rid for the past few years. And in any case why would the CMA approve a bid from Amazon, about the most anti-competitive company on the planet.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/leisure-retail/morrisons-takeover-kantar-b941904.html
Please let me know your thoughts
IMO the situation is not as simple as it looks as a lot of MRW value is trapped into property value rather than in operation return . The current VC offeror is looking to a 20%+ return pa in the next 3 years for its clients. This can not be acheved from the current MRW operations but only from a asset strip.
So while we, the MRW management and Labour's opportunistic view is looking for a "fair business value" which it may be 40% above the MRW unstressed price, this will not be a business case for the VC so they may not raise it with more than 5-6% as it is nothing left in for them.
Equally it may be a dilemma from amazon from the opposite angle, too much trapped value in properties and too weak operations to justify a 300 SP UNLESS they find a synergy with Wole Foods. This is how Whole Foods look after was taken by Amazon - the question is what did they learned, was the take over ducessful from their perspective as only the answers to these questions may answer if Amazon will make an offer
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2019/06/25/how-amazon-changed-whole-foods/
If amazon experience with Wholefoods was not what they expected than they may not make a contra offer
Any thoughts?