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Must admit after flirting with Menzies for a while now my arse is starting to fall out, something is wrong with this stock
Maze I've no issue with anyone posting what they think aslong as they dont mind a response if someone disagrees. My main point I suppose is just for people to be careful as there are many things out there that could bring the sp down on many shares not just Menzies. However there again are some positives, I'm not trying to anoy anyone by what I say and I probably come across wrong but my intention simply is to make sure people keep their eyes fully open to what can happen in the near term future especially. Its not all fine and dandy as some seem to think or want to put across its very far from it.
I'll end simply by saying this, I'm not an economist, I not a financial gury, I'm just a lowly trader trying to make some money while trying to hopefully help in some way from stopping some people getting burnt. We all know how these boards work, some people fall for the rubbish spouted from both sides as they dont go and properly research the wider picture. Thats all :)
It's a bit hard to understand where you're going with this spoon_key. A lot of the factors you mentioned being applicable to all other companies are you suggesting people should stop posting on chat boards?
There are people who come here just to express their wild wishes but what convb does is extract positive information about Menz and post here, backing up why SP may rise. Convb like most others including myself will find it pointless to go on about the possibility of a 2nd wave or a plane dropping from the sky and therefore predicting that this may drop shortly.
Times are strange and anything can happen but life must go on. Other SP's have risen for similar updates and Menz being one of the last to recover can explain why people think a big spike is imminent on some news. That news has started coming.
You have totaly misunderstood my point, I wasn't attacking you I was just stating that there are variables on both sides for up and down movements. Could this go up short/medium and long term? Yes, could it go down? Yes, theres no argument there, its a stupid point but all it takes it more positive or negative news and that will dictate where share prices go, not you, I or anyone posting on these boards.
As for your points heres just a few that could and are happening!
Virus rates start going up in Europe not just USA, I wont mention some other countries in a worse state!
Death rates start going up (Takes a few weeks for catch up)
Job loses and jobs still to be lost (Snowball effect from people losing jobs)
Companies results and forecasts being released
Fed mentions no more printing for a while
USA trade war escalation with either China or EU
Biden leading polls!
Biden winning!!
Theres others but I cannot think of them off the top of my head but my point is just because airbridges are opening doesn't mean that that rose doesn't have many thorns!
There is nothing that anyone could post on this site that would influence a share price either way.
If you think you can destroy each of my positive points please post away.
I have y own views on COVID, which is not something I wish to debate here. In a very quick summary the US reporting is unusually very bi-partisan, which is due to a highly polarizing US President and it being an election year. Due to the US age Demographics and Geography it is moving at different speeds in different areas. I am not concerned about the DOW dropping or rising, MNZS turn around planes. And in the coming months there will be 100% plus more birds taking off and landing in MNZS major hubs.
MNZS is my main holding, naturally I am very supportive of it and very excited about its short, medium and long term prospects. Personally I see this well above 400p into 2022 chasing the highs of 600p plus in 2018 with the restructuring and cost savings and growth that will happen. One of the best equity buys available.
convb I dont disagree that we could see those prices or maybe higher but I'm not blind to the fact that we could also see lower prices due to how much is going on that could have a negative impact on the sp, I prefer posters that show both sides of the coin not just ramps or deramps to suit an agenda. I read you full post and dont disagree with any of it but for each point I could post a negative one that could destroy that positive point. We are in dangerous times trading wise so who knows what could happen?
The airbridge news is good news but if the Dow tanks next week due to the virus taking off again in the USA do you honestly think Menzies among just about every other share wont be affected in some way?
I will tell you why 175-200p is realistic short term;
1. Last week we saw a high of 169p
2. This morning saw the biggest sale of holiday bookings ever recorded on Friday news of 50 Countries to fly to from 6th July
3. From Euro Control ''Our latest estimate is that, by early August, traffic will be nearly 50% of 2019 levels ?? Lots of detail in the @eurocontrol Network Manager Recovery Plan'' (https://t.co/5gwh29l36y @Transport_EU @ECACceac @A4Europe @IATA @CANSOEurope @ACI_EUROPE @EBAAorg @eraaorg https://t.co/9QAm2i5W5z)
4. Despite the significantly reduced revenue, strong cost management, together with quick and effective mitigating actions, resulted in an overall performance for April and into May that was better than expected at the time of the March Trading Update. This is incredible news and with flights returning to 50% levels 2019 from July in the EU, MNZS will be generating cashflow with ha much leaner and profitable company structure
5. With the downsizing of Swissport, whose Chinese State owned company HNA Group havign its own liquidity problems there is an incredible opportunity for Menzies to take over Swissport contracts as the recent trading summary suggests ''The Board recognises that there will be significant opportunities for aviation services groups who are able to emerge from this crisis with their capability and service offering preserved. We are pleased that our liquidity headroom is capable of providing a secure platform as we start to build back our operations. Overall, the Board is confident in the long-term growth potential of the aviation services market and believes that, as a global leader, John Menzies plc will emerge strongly from this challenging period.''
6. Philipp Joeinig, Executive Chairman bought £4m of shares at £3.90 in September 2019...this was at a time when MNZS turnaround plan was bearing fruit and the share price was on the rise through end of Nov 2019 to January 2020 peaking at 480p before Covid factor was applied. Mr Joeinig clearly saw a very bright future in Sept 2019 to buy at £3.90, it is a very big insider purchase
7. 200p represent less than 50% of pre-covid value
For the above reasons we will get to the levels I have outlined, and we will refer back to this post when we do for the classic told you so.
Some dont like hearing a bit of realism that could help to stop others from potentially losing money! They think we live in fantasy land where everything is all fine and dandy and everything is going back to normal! Oh and I bought in last week so call me what you want I'm not fussed!
So you keep saying, but based on what? Menzies is a global organisation and the market is going to continue pricing in the threat of infections increasing ‘globally.’ I agree the company is potentially undervalued long term, but can’t see a re-rate until the second wave threat disappears and the long term economic effects of job losses have become clear as has their subsequent effect on air travel. Finance is a concern (2021 is only 6 months away) and therefore the renegotiation of bank covenants and the potential for some dilution is likely being factored in as well. Not deramping, just trying to shed some realism on what sort of time horizon peeps should be planning for here...all IMO
''Summer holidays to countries including France, Spain and Greece have been given the go-ahead under a Government traffic-light system that will scrap quarantine for dozens of destinations.
But British holidaymakers have been warned that a sudden outbreak of coronavirus during their trip will mean the immediate reintroduction of quarantine, forcing them to self-isolate for 14 days on their return.
The Government plans to publish a list of up to 50 countries in the middle of next week where there will be “air bridges” exempting arrivals to the UK from quarantine. The Foreign Office will change its advice to allow travel, with the fly-away date for holidays likely to be Monday, July 6.''
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/26/summer-holidays-france-spain-cleared-take-off/
175p-200p before 6th July