The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Interesting summary SJL - and all makes good reading. No problem with management options - they will be based on a very low entry price - but that's not TF's fault. However - as we have noted recently - mmx business cannot be based on the assumption someone will come along and make an offer - certainly not an any price level which would be acceptable to II's (large current seller aside) or the majority of PI's.
For that reason we need to show growth and we need to have a robust financial performance - the rebalancing of our revenue has been good - but on the face of it we offer little to the market in the way of revenue increase. So alongside the big picture marco issues you cover - we need revenue growth, increasing cash flow, decreasing costs, higher EDITDA, PBT and of course a clear policy on investor distributions. We have the potential to be highly cash generative - in excess of 1p per share earnings should be achievable in 12/18 months. And that's the point at which we exit. SB
just for clarity , i will recap my current thoughts and logic for buying at this price so we don’t get caught up with why others may be selling :
change of management most welcome
TF a total straight shooter
He will have a mission to rebuild share price and exit at a much higher number and i’m sure his options package that will likely be voted on at the imminent Board meeting and likely announced with the finals will reflect that .
i will support that and the guy deserves to make a few million to get the job completed .
any final remnants of questionable accounting will i suspect be dealt with in the finals but i have to say i was surprised and pleased that the trading update showed just a 3% drop in revenues and that cash at c $9M showed healthy cash flow even after the buy backs .
any balance sheet adjustments are if no consequence to the ultimate outcome here .
as mentioned underlying price increases need 6 months notice so won’t be seen til H2
the 10 year anniversary of the xxx launch isn’t until H2 also so don’t expect to see any AB windfall until then
historic ICM vendor issues in the past now
the repricing and release of the prior premium stock needs 69 days notice , hence the April launch date so will be interesting to see if that gives a bump
franks TLD auction late april also so we will then see the values and if #win or #fail
Donuts need some time to digest their big buy with Afilias
Today’s SP imputes a market cap of circa $60 M and i strongly believe the thing to be worth $95M as is with upside from there with good solid improvements and then a little premium on top for a choice exit .
depending on the forex rate as any buyer likely dealing in USD, i can see a solid 7p plus steady state and perhaps a 9-10p with a following wind .
personally i would like that a year from now as here , cap gains drops in half after a 12 month hold period
SB ,
i honestly have no clue who has sold .
will be interesting to see if there is a 4pm friday TR-1 posted :-)
i guess is a good sign that others are also buying at the price , as i said i would have taken them all .
perhaps all will be revealed soon if is one of the notifiable parties , not sure what the regs are in terms of posting the TR-1s on AIM . i know the buyer / seller has 2 days to notify the company but not sure what obligations the company has ( if any ) to post
...ironic indeed. Although at the same time - someone, somewhere has now sold c. 70m shares in the last week - still no sign who and if they have stopped selling. SJL picked up c.39m - who bought the other 30m? SB
so a gang of twitter pump and dumpers buy a few quids worth and this rallies to 8p+ in a matter of hours .... SJL buys some hefty chunks and we're stagnant lol ...
is another one that has been submitted too should be up soon
Still nothing from the seller. Now thinking Canaccord given the scale - which might explain delay in notification. SB
TR1 Rns Out.