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Thanks Josey
I agree - 4mths in offer period is a long time. I did contact the Takeover Panel a few months ago to try and understand the process in respect of offer periods as it is hard to sift through the legal text of thir code. My understanding from that interaction was that there is no set limit on how long it can stay in. It is pretty clear as well that the Takeover panel are not passive in this process and I they would allow a company to stay in an offer period this long if it was BAU and no other parties were involved.
The best i can find when looking online is the following:
As defined in the Takeover Code, the offer period will commence when the first announcement is made of an offer or possible offer for a company, or when certain other announcements are made, such as an announcement that a purchaser is being sought for an interest in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of the company or that the board of the company is seeking potential bidders.
An offer period will end when an announcement is made that an offer has become or has been declared unconditional, that a scheme of arrangement has become effective, that all announced offers have been withdrawn or have lapsed or following certain other announcements having been made.
As for the point about their comment on performance in line with expectation. I think this is a bit harsh - Its not any different to what I see most companies share in their final results - it would be different if the RNS was a proper trading update.
My view remains the same here - I still expect to see a change of ownership. I still expect that this will involve a third party and I expect the price to be at a significant premium to the current SP. Your term ' relatively low ball acquisition' is subjective - and I would not disagree with the term. But 'low ball' for me is anything between 15p and 40p. I still expect a third party to be involved becasue I do not readily see how an MBO would help the company thrive.
Well for one, you don't stay in offer period for over 4 months....certainly without a process update.
Secondly, an 'in line with expectations' comment with no real strong guidance on outlook for '24 is poor considering the current situation. It's almost apathetic management and certainly no recognition of the brutal shareholder value attrition. Let's face it, WeWork took longer to unravel than this SP has.
For me personally the signals point to delisting if they feel capable of getting the votes. As investors it's simply a gamble between that and the business going back to usual, with slow re-rate on 'profitable/cash generative' activity or a relatively low ball acquisition either through MBO or third party. If one of the latter two happen ... this here is a great SP to be in at .... if the former ... well you can't take it with you!!
Even acknowledging the need for change to make profit would be a start
What should the management be doing then josey?
It's more trailing averages really but if they want to go the MBO route I think the highest paid for shares in the last year becomes important in the offer.
That said, if it was me I'd chase down holders for an undertaking to delist. You keep your holding and lose the hassle of being listed. Cannacord may have exited because of that very reason and scuppered plans for a decent chunk of support. The other issue might be keeping the revolving credit line under private structure. Delisting would take this to 3/4p I imagine.
Who knows what's going on but one thing for sure is that management are not bothered about the state of the SP. Always concerning really.
@josey you mention year highs, how do you perceive this equates to whatever the steps steps in MMAG sp/bid/mbo?
I can get some of my shares into next year ISA allowance and watch the the SP ticks up.
Year high is still 33p. Drops to 25p-ish come end of April .... so I'd get used to the silence and suppressed SP for another month or so!
I'd take the price from a year ago, better still the mid April price. I'm invested and my sentiment is positive however, the longer the lack of information and depressed SP continues my optimism ebb's away. Been here from December last year. Seen the highs and current lows.
This board is just for people looking to make money off the market movement of this stock, whether that’s selling or buying is irrelevant.
Correct me if I’m wrong. You think the price will go up because their performance in 2024 will be stronger than 2023, and a buyer is likely to purchase at a significant premium to the current SP?
It is blatently obvious that you are not invested.
And your challenge was anything but constructive - the RNS said that it was a positive start to the year. Whether they use the word pleased or 'in line' is irrelevent - you are simply spliiting hairs by argueing one over the other.
How would you know if I’m invested or not? And what does that have to do with anything I’ve said?
You listed 3 reasons you were positive and I constructively challenged one of the assumptions.
As I mentioned in a previous post. It doesn’t matter to me whether the company goes up or down even 50% anymore, the SP has dropped so much that going back up to the price from a year ago is just not going to happen
Why be so concerned Mike Pickle - you clearly are not invested
Just doing the classic deramper thing and tring to cheery pick words or make mountains out of molehills
I’ve just quickly re-read some of their statements and Im actually more concerned now than I was regarding Q1.
This year, their comment was “trading was in line with management’s expectations”
Whereas last year their comment was “ We are pleased with our performance” in regards to H1. And that was a massive loss making period.
Their change to “in line with expectations” suggests to me that we can expect even bigger losses in Q1 vs last year.
Relating to “(3) They traded well in Q1, and started well in Q1. This is encouraging” did they share any net profit figures for this?
I may be mistaken, but I believe they’ve talked about strong Q1 trading every single year. I would suspect that’s because their Q1 lines up with the XMAS peak rather than any sign of a YoY improvement in profitability
I find it really interesting that you say “ In some shape or form - there is a good business here that will live on as a going concern and thrive if it had owners with deeper pockets IMO.”
If they maintain the profitability we’ve seen over the last 3 years, their owners will have to subsidise the business by as much as it’s worth each year.
The business won’t be able to live on without either growing debt, making profit or taking charitable donations from its owners
Josey - I dont have rose tinted glasses on.
I am well aware that the company continues to be in a tough spot.
My argument though is that even factoring in all the challenges - IMHO a share price of 7p is just ridiculous and doe not reflect even th ethreshold level at which this business could get bought for.
And there are signs of light...
(1) They do not have a debt issue - they are simply using debt to bridge the gap between 'money out' and 'money in' on their rental proposition. I anticipate that we'll see a lower rental base in the next update - so net debt should improve.
(2) They will not require the same amount of bank funding as they start to manage down the rental base - reducing their exposure and interest payments. We are getting close to an interest rate reduction - so that will help MM
(3) They traded well in Q1, and started well in Q1. This is encouraging
In some shape or form - there is a good business here that will live on as a going concern and thrive if it had owners with deeper pockets IMO.
As for Robswire - he has not had ONE good thing to say about MM. We can argue abour how influential this foum is and what impact it can or cant have an effect on the share price - but regardless, he is clearly here to suppress any positive nnarative or optimism. He may be short, he may be heloing facilitate a party get cheap shares. Who knows - but he is not invested in MM, only seems to post on this board and nbody is here for no reason
I suppose you can’t blame the leadership for being stagnant. Once you’ve already lost 90%+ of your value, a few extra % doesn’t even register. The company is comparably worthless now, so no point wasting all your energy on trying to gain back a few %
The option to regain even 50% of their IPO value is likely gone for good
It’s clear that confidence in MMAG is at an all time low, and that’s being reflected in the SP.
They still have momentum they can use to steer towards a profitable commercial model. But the longer they continue in this downward trend, the less options they have open to them. Less money available from lenders, less money that can be raised from selling shares, fewer partners that consider them a long term proposition and a more saturated market. Their competition aren’t standing still. Companies like Back Market are seriously investing in taking more and more market share, and they can afford to spend billions on it. MMAG haven’t shown any significant change the the commercial model in at least 3 years…
I do wonder what the leadership’s plan is to become profitable. Maybe they are just stuck treading water because of stagnant leadership that only knows one way to make money, and don’t know how to react to increasing competition.
Well we could be down here or worse for some time. Very much doubt Robswire is short or long, so it's better he trolls the company than people on social media or the like.
Where he is right is in offering a contrary view. Things are far from right in the company and your lens is somewhat rose tinted Hedge.
Like many investments, I am playing with money I know I can flat out lose here. It will sting but a large proportion added just lately is from profit elsewhere.
I don't think the business will fail. I do however think management are working on keeping their holdings intact and a way to get it off AIM at the lowest cost/benefit to them and whoever they might be working with. So it could well be in their interest to have this SP so low for some time.
The business really has been throttled by ATMs and rental and there's no hiding the fact it's taken a hugely inflated IPO down to peanuts in the space of a few years.
Let's just hope for better and not be too shocked by the worst. It's a simple business that could be corrected very quickly but how much we shareholders benefit from that ... I'm not sure.
Boring! Same old rubbish from the de-rampers
Adding nothing to this forum
According to Robswire this company was going to be taken down by the banks 3 months ago…yawn
3 years ago the market cap was £200m with no debt and shares at 193p
Today market cap is ??? Debt ??? Share price???
Answers on a postcard to hh@titanic.gone
TW is a prize pill-lock - he embodies the saying ' a little knowledge is a dangerous thing'
Borrowing may well be close to 2x market cap; but as we all know from the RNS the vast majority of the borrowing is similar to bridge the gap to receiving contract revenue and assets from their rental prop.
If the share price went to 4p - you could make the comment that borrowing was up to 3x mCap.
However it does not chaneg anything - it does not affect the compnaies ability to stay complaint with the bank covenants which are no linked to mCap. The mCAP is just a function of the current share price which in no way reflect the genuine market value of the company. If you think it does - why not go and try and buy the company for 7p and see how many holders will sell you their shares.
I beleive that if MM wanted to do a proper finance lease proposition - it would come with a much heavier regulatory burden with is a big undertaking for a business. It is generally unpopular with customers, adding time to th etransaction and requires then to take out a formal loan.
Northern , my friend.... You are either deluded, have a vendetta, have an underhand agenda or just misplaced your trust in the wrong people.
I'm not sure what you expect to happen next - I'm looking forward to their next trading update and waiting to hear what the is happening with the offer period - it is almost 4 months i think now.
Umm quite possible borrowing now over 2 x market cap
They should gave raised when sp was 35p Last year
Now in similar position to Rev Bars
Well looks like if that's the law with rental but you can rent a house and buy it by agreement and leave a car and buy it and a TV from radio rentals
They should have leased the gear instead of rent it
Oh well looks like i lost in thx rental deal and now off to offload my last few before they fall anymore
Gl to all those left on board hope you all get a life belt
Was hoping to sneak a few at sub 7p as a spread bet - sadly Spreadex are only allowing closing transactions and wont't let me buy. Often a sign that the share price is primed for a big more.