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Update on thoughts from my post below on 1 Feb:
1. The news vacuum until next results is definitely not helping, particularly given the amount of uncertainty in the macro at the moment. Barclay’s £3 target is perhaps a bit lazy given where it topped out recently and they don’t give a time frame for that to be reached (at least not publicly) but would not be surprised to see that attained again later this year.
2. The retracement, which was clinging desperately to the base of the long uptrend for a few days, has now broken through and has therefore moved from a retracement to a reversal. Unfortunately that has confirmed a downtrend that makes the completion of the rest of the pattern more likely IMO. But wait, there’s hope…
3. The 200 daily moving average is still rising from below and that could potentially offer strong support at around the 225 mark, perhaps sometime next week? That would also mark the closing of the gap created by those lovely HY results on 8th November. However (why is there always a ‘however’ just when the good news appears?), if the 200 doesn’t hold then the final stage is in play. Similar to the retracement holding the uptrend the last few days, I would not be surprised to see the SP going sideways along the 200DMA for a few days as well, however (told you), if it doesn’t bounce from there and instead breaks under:
4. The denouement could be that it completes the pattern down to 203, closing the gap created by the TU on 15th August as it does so and then tries to figure out what to do next. Given that’s close to 200 I would not be surprised if it respects that psychological level, hovers around for a while perhaps around the end of this month, and then starts a new uptrend looking towards the FY results in May. If PE was interested that may be the point where they come in play???
Or not, you pays yer money and all that…
Let's hope so 1ontheup although she did by 50k shares at £2.47 so has some work to do.
Mmmm, anyone guess where these will bottom out, I suppose the answer is - until they become an attractive bargain, personally IMO, I thought around 2.40 would be roughly the bottom after its rise… maybe/hopefully it’s close to it now? Holding long term so I’m not too concerned. Not pleasant to see though.
Regarding private equity, this is what I posted 2 Feb 2024 13:16:
One thing that attracted me to M&S was news a couple of years ago about interest from the private equity company Apollo Global Management. When M&S appointed Cheryl Potter to the board last year this made my ears prick up. On her appointment, Archie Norman described her as "a superstar of the private equity world". I was already invested in M&S but I couldn't help thinking that maybe appointing a PE insider could help them get the best deal in the future.
I think it is just the UK Economic Macro atm David - interest rate reductions look like they are on hold, which dents sentiment and shares that have risen the most in recent months are retracing - in retrospect I should have waited to add sub 240p but I didn't think it would get there - will now look to add more if it falls further - in terms of bids/ takeovers - you can see that playing out in the UK right now - only yesterday Barrat took out Redrow - some ftse and mid 250 stocks are now back to their Covid lows so takeovers, bids etc will become more prevalent with UK stocks going forward imo.
gl dyor etc
Carrington: just can’t work out what is causing so much downward pressure on the share price given what we are hoping to see in May when the full year’s accounts are published. What snippets of information that have been published, including Barclays reiteration of £3 per share, are all good yet the share price continues its inexorable decline
Much further and I believe MKS could become a bid target from a private equity fund looking to maximise the potential from the food side of the business.
Added today at 242.3p - was waiting for sub 240p but I am happy with this price - analysts were questioning a few weeks ago if MKS could hold onto its market share in food and that this had subsequently led to the stock dropping around 15pct from its highs - looking at the NIQ data yesterday momentum in food is still strong, very strong - that is good enough for me to add here with a target of 300p plus.
gla dyor etc.
New £3 target from Barclays, thanks
So I've decided to dip my toe in again at 243 now that some of the macro negativity is behind us and the markets start looking forward again. Hopefully this will be the start of a new run upwards. My only doubts now are the views of the analysts covering retail. Some companies have gone down quite a bit lately so hopefully this might bring some oversold views. One thing that attracted me to M&S was news a couple of years ago about interest from the private equity company Apollo Global Management. When M&S appointed Cheryl Potter to the board last year this made my ears prick up. On her appointment, Archie Norman described her as "a superstar of the private equity world". I was already invested in M&S but I couldn't help thinking that maybe appointing a PE insider could help them get the best deal in the future. I'm probably totally wrong here but has anyone else thought about this?
Would need to fall below position 110 for automatic exit, currently an SP of around £1.65 for that to happen. Next key date for rebalancing is closing value on Tues 27 Feb.
Thank you
In rough figures we're currently about 80th on the list with Mcap £4.8bn, Ocado 9 places lower at £4.3bn and lowest value is EDV at £3.5bn. For automatic demotion at that Mcap our SP would be £1.77 but anything under £4bn or £2.03 would put us at risk - 20%+ drop from here, personally I dont see that happening.
Dose anyone know at what price point would we drop out of footie 100.?
GLA
I don't wish to be a monger of doom but in the absence of any other important news the next trading announcement is scheduled to be the FY 31st March results on 22 May, unless they issue a Y/E update around 31 March but they don't normally do that. Lots of time to drift in a vacuum...
And I don't wish to be a harbinger of doom either but it had a good 5/6 waves up in a 15 month uptrend before topping out, so due a retracement under normal market dynamics and also given the cautionary statements in the recent update, and that's actually often healthy for the long term.
But that's a horrid looking head and shoulders pattern just formed, very often consistent with a break of trend, and if it runs true to form then I have it completing at around 203, which will also close the gaps created on 15 Aug and 8 Nov last year. Yeah, I know, don't @ me about charts - they're just observations for consideration, I'm not going to insist they are right or argue them repeatedly as only time will tell. Best wishes with whatever investment decisions you make.
Currently down 17% from our recent high and only up 17% over six months in which we've massively increased sales, profit and re-entered the 100. I'm thinking over done and time to bounce, we'll maybe next week. On the plus side days are getting longer 🐣
Next support is around 235.5p area. Unfortunately we are heading down despite current rising sales volumes at stores compare to last year. Lets hope next trading announcement will bring reward for long term holders.
Price now is back to where it was in November 2023. The Christmas trading figures seem to be totally discounted now and seem to count for very little.
Share price has steadily fallen since results day. I accept other retailers share prices are also under pressure but this correction is pretty severe given the likelihood of excellent full years figures in May. A couple of institutional investors came on board at end of October & November no doubt with higher expectations of share price performance than is being evidenced
Testing the support area again today. Will see what tomorrow will bring to the SP.
Hennes & Mauritz fell on weaker than expected profits and its chief executive departed Plus SAYE staff share scheme matured and probably some profit taking ahead of tomorrow. The staff have earned that-well done to them😁
I certainly don't agree that MKS is overbought.
Its just the macro and general low sentiment that's holding back the SP.
In my view all the market is undervalued in London at the moment.
Therefore, the solid best buys have to be companies such as MKS and WTB that are doing well despite the macro.
When the market does improve these will be the first to gain and they probably will go overbought quite quickly as share prices rise.
Carrington, all good points to which I agree with. I just feel the SP is in a state of flux at the moment. I think there will be some weakness short term and it will be driven by the macro rhetoric around inflation and interest rates. I will be 100% jumping back in when I feel the herd mentality comes roaring back. I put 50% of the M&S sales in Microsoft which I think will smash it again this year. The Copilot for 365, which was launched only in November, is going to be a massive game changer and MCST is ahead of the game. It will be interesting to see how that impacts the results tomorrow. The other 50% is just there floating in the water waiting for a bite from a lower M&S SP ;-)
1ontheup - never wrong to take a profit so well done - personally I am selling nothing and will be looking to add on weakness, - momentum now firmly with MKS - they have captured market share in womanswear which is significant - they have also decimated the Waitrose offering - momentum is all and they have it big time now - inflation is falling in the UK and mortgage interest rates are also falling rapidly, add to this the fall in petrol prices, gas prices and food prices and some stellar wage rises that have now gone through - disposable income in the MKS demographic will be higher and augers well for MKS going forward - if it drops below 240p I will be adding with a 350p target
gla dyor etc
Whilst I've done well with M&S shares I decided to bail out selling 80% Jan 11th & the balance the 16th. I still believe in M&S but I think last year was full of positive sentiment (results, return to FTSE 100, inflation dropping, talk of rate cuts, Xmas where M&S normally outperforms etc) which I don't think will all flow through into this one, at least not until the FY results come out. International, although small, made a loss in the Xmas trading update, citing India as problematic. They have been investing heavily there recently and it's worth noting that the MD resigned after less than 2 years in the role. I hope I'm wrong but I think there will be more negative sentiment in the markets after the Fed & BoE meetings this week with inflation still sticky whilst pushing back any talk of rate cuts. Therefore I'm a watcher at the moment but keen to jump back in at the right time (which I'll probably get wrong ;-)
No she will probably get a bonus for thinking it up
GLA