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NPV is actually USD 1.6bn on my number. No this is not a joke, you read it correctly. I hear assume spot NDPR prices.
Very simple - have a look at the FEED numbers of Pensana’s press release in March. These numbers are for an integrated mine + separation, just like us -
Bear in mind that Mkango project is for 2ktpa rather than Pensana’s 4.5ktpa.
Then, two more things to adjust for 1) Pensana has I think only 85% of their project while we have 100%. 2) Pensana’s NPV numbers assume USD150k/t NDPR. Spot is higher at USD200k.
£50m mcap doesn't seem much for a big Rare Earths project that's about to become sellable post-DFS/BFS.
The NPV is the thing though - I haven't validated anything like the kind of £1.25b NPV number that some are touting on here so perhaps those are the guys pushing this to forward-sell their mid-teens placing.
Again, if you think that NPV number is anywhere near the mark then show me the math/source for that ...
I'm adding and have added further this morning. Just feels damn cheap. The story has improved yet the price has drifted lower, yet still in the one year trading range.
The mining agreement is more important in my view as this paves the way to the rest. BFS numbers will be known and are being used for next stage funding. Its a buy and hold.
Not for traders!
That's going to depend on the reality of the NPV of a DFS - the money guys will already know those numbers and your lowball increase - on the same numbers - from PFS>DFS is a 2x.
If the size of the resource/mine plan/sale price of the commods has ballooned since then, well, the multiplier is maybe much higher than that.
I don't know where the current mcap = 4% of projected NPV is coming from but if that's true then this is a 10x from low 20s and I doubt they'll be raising lower than here - in that scenario, 24p is already mates rates with a 10x to come from here ...
Now imagine IF that rns ever lands that we hope …..there will be am “ awful lot of sells “ banking their profit and the price retreats again.
Even if you believe in charts or not the sentiment and charts indicate lower from here. Lower highs + lower lows. All it will take is one of those 100k sells and today’s buys would be in vain so although I’m praying for 30s 40s n more it’s highly unlikely we are going anywhere fast.
Also what price do peeps think the raise will be at ? 24p last raise and it’s currently at 23p. My guess would be 20p mates rates only to institutions.
Well that's an awful lot of buying at 22s - I suspect mid-teens is off the table then.
People are completely missing the fact that given the current Ukraine war:
1) Europe is doubling down on its aspirations of energy independence, and security of supply. This is seen by the strong renewed push for the Fit 55 program. This has also been highlighted at EU level in regards to critical minerals, in recent official meetings.
2) Poland which has placed itself at the centre of the solution to welcome refugees and as a strong supporter of western democracy and in standing up to the East, is making this project ever more as reality. Whatever divide there was between Poland and the EU is now clearly history.
3) Finally, this project was recently included in an EU document on critical raw material projects in the continent.
Also note the UN vote yesterday - Malawi voted with the West, while Angola (where Pensana has its project) abstained. This is something that will further endorsement of MKA’s project, imo - in a jurisdiction that is even friendly to western values than that of Pensana.
In other words, the chances of this project becoming a reality has markedly SHOT UP since the start of this awful Ukraine war - and yet no one is paying attention and just focusing on petty moves on share price.
This is a NO BRAINER BUY. Trading at bombed out 4%NPV and HALF the valuation of Pensana. Yet it is the Pensana for EU. This gap will close.
They’ve given you a timeline, thickofit. You should have some news within 2 months now that should get you back up to your purchase price. The pace in these shares can be trying sometimes but look at what MKG are sat on and about to monetise. And look at the geopolitical situation around that. The drop is irritating but there is now a green energy revolution afoot, triggered but a distressed exit from fossil fuels. It’s long overdue and we are about to be producing the ‘stuff’ that will fuel it. Sit tight. 2 months.
Evening.
We've all been spiked :)
This is, currently, in its sixth red month on the trot so it would seem reasonable to suggest that it should show some signs of support sooner rather than later with the weekly MACD possibly starting to swing around nicely but if it's not to be then perhaps they have mid-teens in mind - time will tell as per.
I would add that another ex-China RRE producer, MP materials, has a current Mcap of $9.56 Billion on revenues of $275 Million. MKA is not at the priction stage yet, and will need finance to get there, but MKA's current Mcap is just under £50million ($65 million). For those who wait until production, the Mcap here would seem to have the potential to increase well beyond the amount of any required dilution to finance Songwe. In the meantime, there is always the potential for takeover and, given Singwe's strategic importance and likely asset value, that could again imo be expected to be at a value potentially signifivantly in excess of the current Mcap.
you a lucky enough to have bought a brilliant share don't sell ever
Buying on a 500% spike is a terrible strategy, agreed. In fact, it almost guarantees big losses. The big rise here was gradually though and took more than a year. There's been a hiatus in news, hence the slide since Nov. However, tge bottom line is MKA is sitting on deposits of global strategic importance and is quite far down tge line toward exploiting them. MKA has a large amount of something the world needs and is one of very few significant holders of the resources in question out with Chinese control. There is imo huge value in that. I remain very confident that MKA will end up at a significantly higher SP and am waiting for that.
Munch - I sold 13% of my holding at about 24p as I recall on the way up . Held the rest . Things never go up in a straight line - buying after a 5-600% rise on an AIM micro stock is a massive value risk - and a terrible strategy . Stop moaning .
Just added another 43000 at 22.8p so my holding now around 650000 shares. Massively under water but have every confidence going forward despite current frustrations with absence of RNS re the financing of the project. Still holding the view that the concentrator plant will probably be acquired by a large mining conglomerate and Mkango focus on the refining plant in Poland and their holding in the recovery of used magnets.
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This share really confuses me, it's my second real venture into shares and my only holding, on paper and looking at the company it should be doing far better, every time a positive RNS is issued the price seems to drop. I unfortunately bought in at its height of 38p and to be honest I just want out now and might be tempted to take a small loss but until they (hopefully) one day reach 35p+ again I'll have to hold my nose and hope the substance is their and the price will return to at least what I paid. My first venture was in Koov shares which collapsed and I lost the money (just under £1k so not loads) but I now have £10k in this which I can't afford to lose and invested because I was confident. I am still confident but an 8% dip for no real reason can't do anything but shake that.
Recent derating offering great buying oppty.
Trading on CHEAP 4% NPVe at spot NDPR p (mine + separation): nearly HALF the valuation of peer Pensana PRE.
Relative discount unwarranted - for the only co to build an integrated Rare Earths pjct in EU - and with EU backing.
BUY
Cristalball, Amazon investors are also unhappy , do you want to tell them the sp has risen 15,000% lmaoooo.
Good luck to those that got in at 5-6p. You could be in profit by £2k or 10k. Regardless of that it’s sad to refer to the old sp and not what the company and its price is doing now.
39p down to 22p is nut looking good. I’m not unhappy because I know my money is safe, but don’t discount out seeing teens the way this is going. Then your 500% goes down to 300% or will you then tell me you banked your profit at 39p and de-risked the rest of the 5k shares. Lol.
Good to have a bit of humour on here :)))). but reality is far different. Good luck anyways chaps. Let’s hope these raise and get back to a decent level.
Munch - we have increased the SP 500%. I don’t understand how you can be unhappy with MKA .
Lewis - I trade and also happy to hold long term. What I’m saying is what most are thinking …. We are in a race against the market. If you look at the VIX index it’s gone from below 10 ( very stable ) towards 30-40 range ( volatile) hence the 2-3 % swings happening in the US.
The markets will correct very hard, I just hope we don’t get caught up in them. Also in comparison as I posted about sovereign …can’t help but get slightly jealous that they managed a 100% sp increase inside a month.
Seriously after all them tweets months n months ago there’s like a damp squib and more importantly the sp has completely died down where those 10% gains look a distant dream.
Ps. Time to look without rose tints. Yes the long term looks great as a company going forward ….let’s hope the returns justify our investment as shareholders.
Management here has been solid and remains so. The BFS and mining agreement are in the bag, this news today adds to that. It solid progression.
Munch, you sound like a trader and this is an investment play. Possibly the wrong stock for you.
If a placing is coming it will be at fair value, they always have been here. It will be used to progress the next phases across the opportunities.
I also think there is a forced seller in the mix, and they have been dripping stock into the market. Possibly geopolitical or simply has to liquidate.
Looking forward to the next update and will buy more around this level
I am all for exploration and expansion if you have multiple parties interested in your asset(s) as a matter of national security
Most LTH are around 5p average . I have no idea what you mean by “these low prices”. 25p was a pipe dream 6 years ago. Management haven’t really put a foot wrong so why start to mistrust them now ? Securing additional projects and more REE only adds to the value in an acquisition scenario.