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Why's the share price so low? Thought I'd was supposed to be 15p after LP news!
On what basis do you think a raise is coming?
We know the cash balance is strong and the drill costs of Heron are fairly small. Do you envisage MB has lied about costs or are you simply trying to spook people? I know which one I think...
Why any talk about dilution. Once first Heron well is producing it should bring in at least $1m per month in revenue.
"If you do a raise and keep 100% then 26p NAV remains intact.."
No, no, no. No it doesn't. The 26p is based on current shares in issue, any raise puts more shares in issue and so dilutes the NAV - DOWN. Valuation will reduce accordingly to the % of shares raised
A JV is a dilution but depending on what they can bring to the table I'd expect them to nudge everything along and enhance the rate of return. I'd much prefer a dilution by bringing in expertise than a placing and trying to do everything ourselves. Look what GGP did when they brought in a partner.
Agree on farm out back dated cost will be paid and often account also for future capes percentage.
That would mean they have enough cash. Do not need equity raise But the 26p NPV will be lot lower ( depends on % guve away but typically between 25% and 50%)
If you do a raise and keep 100%. 26p stays in tact but in short term sp goes down and will take longer to reach target ( if all else goes well ...)
In short: ewuity raise best for LTH if they have confidence management can deliver. Farmout best for traders and low conviction LTH. So i woukd like the Farmout:)
Yep just seen that.... nice buys indeed! be nice to see blue later.
On the point of FARM OUT...they will need to pay MATD all back dated costs if an approach was made.
OR
We might even get a Buyout approach from a bigger player other than Petrochina.
Anything is possible. SOCO must be regretting selling their Block 19 and 21 for $100m around 20 years ago to Petrochina if they knew there are 2 Billion barrels there when Oil price was low.
At today's Oil price SOCO would have achieved close to $400m - $500m price tag.
SP drops quickly and then big buys come in at 4.10 ?
Master... a JV is aslo dilution. We will have to give away x% of the asset. Normally financially less favourable than equity raise but you do get a partner ( hopefully with expertise) on board
And for the record. My view: MM do not steal your money. You let them take it. Always own responsibility.
We know MM try to make money just like us but they can even do it with very little risk. If you know this try to trade with them.... imho
If JV is agreed upon. Pm has enough money for 8 /9 wells . Maybe more as it will be lot cheaper if JV partner is the drilling contractor.
Can't seee any raise coming until PM start on renewable
I do not disagree with the cash mentioned and the calculations made but everybody that is not new to AIM investing also knows companies always raise new cash earlier than you would think ( before sp drops further and dilution is even bigger) or they come with a new story why they need it. Get ii on board. New venture. Faster drilling whatever.
So again for me MB could put some of those risks to bed by giving a good update or this keeps being a real scenario that one should keep in mind and will hold sp back.
Again for LTH no issue. But not what traders like to see or hear. Dyor
By the way its the Mm's who steal your money... a 66% drop for 1 minute yesterday.. activating stop losses for their own greed and making nervous holders wet the bed.
Ai. The same guy who said LP wont be granted.
..in that case im going for 20p next week! ;-0
We are being overun by rampers. Rampers are everywhere, more come every day. But I will hold the line. I will fight these rampers. They steal money and have no heart. RAMPERS, you will not win.
Tomorrow i will post the july ramper rankings and be prepared rampers!!!
Pm has enough money to put 5 wells on production.
Heron 1 equipment paid for. Say another £500k to put it online.
4 more wells at 2mill each and you will still have change left over
Spot on Mr p.... and all that wrapped up in a current Mcap cira £45m.. the upside is clear to see and if Oil price ticks up its more in the pot.
Of course there is always risk etc but the upside far outweighs the downside in my view..... especially from this current price point.
CJ
Have you not read past RNSs ?
Cash position is clear if you make the effort to check. We had $11.7m cash less $1.7m drill cost for V1 less say another $1m on other payments leaving $9m cash balance.
Heron wells are low cost around $1.2m - $1.5m each. We can bring 4 wells online. DQE multi-well drill programme will be Self-funded from Heron Oil revenues.
Block XX wells are low cost wells. That is why NPV10 value for 50MMBO @ $60/barrel is $312m
At $77 Brent less 5% discount NPV10 values rise close to $400 Million.
And for the record, I am not trying to change anyone, everything I say is opinion ONLY, it's just irritating the amount of barking from some quarters, the "everything is perfect" brigade. Get real
MB will want to keep good news flow and let the market know we are now going full steam ahead on Heron…. News soon my guess
Yes and that is probably the reason why the SP is barely moving despite the positive news on LP. Because Mr. Market knows that what was once 10p per share will become only 5p if we either A. Dilute via Placing or B. Dilute via farm-out
So in just three days we've had the company valued at a range of between 1.8p to 6.5p which is something like a 350% difference. I know that the crazy drop on the open yesterday was all about MM manipulation designed to hit stops, however this kind of nefarious activity was taken to a new level yesterday.
Although we may be heading towards relatively calmer waters ( that's not hard ! ) I still think that there will be a fair bit of price volatility to come in the lead up to, and just after RNS releases. So I have allocated a certain % of my holding to top slicing wherever I can. I think that it's just too stressful to leave it all in there and ride that likely volatility come what may. And the way things have gone in the past with MATD I wont count my chickens until oil is actually flowing and the company is bringing in some revenue at long last. From now on Mike Buck needs to just 100% focus on the task at hand , and not get distracted by anything else for the time being.
Cj1986 agree MB should now give an update on strategy and cash position.
If hé doesnt and time passes more and more people will focus on dilution again.
So now time to step up ot maybe hé doesnt know either. Will find out soon enough.
For the LTH hete which have no doubts what so ever that should be good news as well as they can buy more cheap shares.
Dont try to change other people just profit from their behaviour if you have a different view. Dyor