London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Gazelle further evaluation.
Would love to see a side track and follow up. Still remember JOG doing +500% on successful side track.
All a bit clearer now
Not just me then lol
MB you B@5tard! Got the old heart rate going then...
MATD refer to the Erdenetsagaan area as Leads...... but now Gazelle has proven the play type, this can now be fast tracked and prioritised. See the pic link below.
USGS reckons there is gas and oil recoverable from the Tamtsag basin and point to the southerly extremes with Erdenetsagaan. Now with Gazelle proving not only the Strat Pinch Out with 3M of very good quality net oil pay.......but very valuable NGL's in the Wet Gas section (how thick we currently do not know and we also do not know the composition of the wet gas and what NGL's it contains and their densities) I am sure we are not going to hear lots about the Southerly area of the Tamtsag basin which is Erdenetsagaan.
Yes Alexios, they are also saying its currently not commercial and giving it a CoS.......which means any value they assign to it is risk weighted down to a lower value.
Flow the oil, declare commercial.....and the risk weighting is removed and the allocated price per share goes up significantly.
This is the basics of how you value an oil company if you wish to use risked values.............. Block V Raptors have risked values and they dont even have proven oil yet...........
overvalued pump and dump,management have a 100% fail rate .imho
(Sharecast News) - Mongolia-focussed oil explorer Petro Matad announced the results of drilling and logging operations at the Gazelle-1 well in the north of Block XX, eastern Mongolia on Thursday, reporting that the well had been drilled with the DQE rig 40105 to a total depth of 2550 metres, with wireline logging completed.
The AIM-traded firm said the Lower Tsagaantsav reservoir objective was encountered at 2280 metres - 20 metres deeper than the pre-drill prognosis.
It explained that the interval penetrated was shale-dominated, with no hydrocarbon pay identified on the logs.
In the Upper Tsagaantsav reservoir objective, good wet gas shows were recorded throughout a predominantly shale prone section.
Three metres of net oil pay in good quality sandstone was defined on the logs.
Casing was now being run on Gazelle-1, with the well to be suspended pending further evaluation.
The company said its pre-drill interpretation of the area highlighted the possibility for a "pinch-out" of the Lower and Upper Tsagaantsav sands, which could set up "potentially material" stratigraphic traps in the southern extension of the Tamsag Basin.
It said the Gazelle-1 information would help better define those traps and their potential size within Block XX.
Looking at its other operations, Petro Matad also told investors that in light of the additional and ongoing expenditure on well testing at Heron-1, it was postponing its plans to return to drill in Block V during 2019.
The Velociraptor prospect in the Taats Basin, along with a newly-developed set of prospects in the neighbouring Tugrug Basin which, like the Taats, had "good evidence" of a working petroleum system, were considered to be attractive candidates for drilling, and would be the subject of further operational updates.
"The results in the Lower Tsagaantsav formation at Gazelle-1 were unexpected in light of the data from other wells in the area," said chief executive officer Mike Buck.
"However, the absence of sands in the Lower Tsagaantsav and the presence of a thin, but good quality pay zone in the Upper Tsagaantsav reservoir support the case for potentially significantly sized stratigraphic traps at the southern end of the Tamsag Basin within Block XX.
"This will be a focus of the post-well evaluation which will commence shortly, once the testing operations on Heron-1 are complete."
I see a worker holding up 10 fingers and 3 toes lol
What they should have done imo
Make the men wear dirty oil stained clothing (short sleeved)
With the number 400 tattoed on the workers arm
Cant get anymore obvious than that
That's the one.
You can hear the photographer now "Mike said to make it look as it you're about to hold the chain whilst referencing the fact we are about to find a s**t ton of black gold."
Although the photos on twitter may seem inconsequential in the grand scheme of things, the fact that MATD aren't known for its great social media updates, means those photos speak volumes. It's only a small detail but I simply can't see them wanting to splash photos of the team and rig being tested over social media if it was going to come up with poor results, especially when results are expected "shortly". If it was bad news they'd of just given us a generic Mongolian sunset snap.. *clutching at straws perhaps
Lol is it the picture where the worker grabs the chain?
Also if Heron was due bad news imminently, would MATD put on their Twitter page the same day as the Gazelle announcement 3 photos of the team working on the testing. It's the first time in this drill season that I've seen them do this with a close up of the team working. The only other time was to thank the team for their work at Heron prior to testing.
Also if anyone has a good conspiracy, one of the guys on the testing rig is holding up 4 fingers... 400 BOPD it is then!
Success is not final, failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts. GLA
I fully agree its not the end for Gazelle.
We will hear more of it definitely
Lockyer, I'm with you Mate. Gazelle, it's not over...
Yes I had a look and even Edison are not giving 18p for Heron
Don't know why, I've just got a feeling. The Gazelle update quoted that Gazelle "... will be a focus of the post-well evaluation which will commence shortly, once the testing operations on Heron-1 are complete."
Won't be worried if there is no news as I'm sure it'll be within the next 5 days but let's get the start of the week off to a cracker..
Oh my prediction by the way is 275 to 350 BOPD
Very interesting thoughts there Proselenes.
Obviously as a shareholder myself, I like to believe there are other portential discoveries like Erdenetsagaan, and with each phrase we are closer to unlocking the grand reward
I like the company to prioritize working on Heron (other activities can happen simultaneously but the priority should always be bringing Heron online) so once we become self-funded it means we can go forward more confidently. It would mean we have gone from an explorer to an producer. It would also means changing sentiment for the benefit of the company and restoring faith for some of the share holders
I hope Mike Buck is reading this. Although it has been great under his leadership by far, but it kinda feels incomplete if we dont get any positive results to show at the end of this year's campaign.
We will find out soon enough.
Tolson Uul for the oomph
The why I see it is simple if Heron is 25million barrels x that by $55 a barrel that’s about 1.1 billion pounds on revenue for a company who aren’t producing nothing at the moment if it’s commercial oil then on these figures what do you think the value would be when it would cost $5 dollars a barrel to get out ??
I was excited with the Gazelle news in terms of the potential upside in the Southern Tamtsag basin which Mike Buck alluded to.
If you look in the picture below........Heron is the part in Block XX identified as Tolson Uul.
There are 2 large, very large prospects at the Southern End of the Tamtsag Basin, these are identified in the pic as Erdenetsagaan and East Erdenetsagaan.
If these are now proven plays and derisked with Gazelle results - which Mike alludes to with the word "material" - you can see from their size, compared to Heron size in Block XX that these are not just material, they are potentially larger that the Raptors.
For me I believe we will see the Raptors become a low priority and the 2020 priority apart from, all being well, production from Heron-1, farming out Heron and developing Heron with the farm out and bank debt........ drilling most likely Erdenetsagaan......
Depending on how Heron-1 flows, how much oil they get out as quick as possible, the terms of the farm out of Heron etc.... maybe just 2 explo wells in 2020....... Erdenetsagaan and the cheapest shallowest Raptor prospect.
Do an NPV10 calculation.
I mean..........your argument started by saying that MATD, with a producing well if Heron-1 flows, would have Prospective Resources of 25 MMBO.............. how can you have it all as PROSPECTIVE if you are already producing ???????????
Take a look at the NPV10 values in the presentations.
I think you have been looking at too many explorers who are not producing, who have found oil in the middle of nowhere with zero production.
We are talking a valuation here for MATD who will be PRODUCING oil (all being well) from a proven oil field. So why would you be talking oil in the ground values for the middle of the sea in the middle of nowhere with a bad PSC and loads of tax to be paid.................
NPV10 - the figures are out there.
The market is currently valuing Heron as nothing, as non-commercial.......... that will all change, massively, if the well flows and all being well by year end Heron will be on test production generating cash flow.
Can you show the calculations for 18p to MATD for 25mmbbls Prospective Resources please Proselenes.
I must be missing something and not seing the obvious what you see
Please help me and others from the mystery
Even market doesn't see it and grossly undervalues the play
Firstly, we are talking onshore. Secondly we are talking the Mongolian PSC terms.......one of the best PSC terms in the world. This is super cheap to develop and highly valuable oil. This is not offshore middle of nowhere not going to be developed in the next 10 years oil
NPV10 value for a 25 MMBO size would be circa 18p a share. NPV10 value for a 40MMBO size would be circa 32p a share.