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I would suggest ,that many of us long term investors are clouded by past disasters .For sure this EL process ,has been a long and exasperating grind ,but we know that we are not far from the finish line.I try to.think like a one year investor rather than a six year one...atb
What difference does a few weeks make? We can't start production till next year anyway.....the only relevant question(s) are: will the EL be granted? How will production be funded? MB no doubt could have set expectations better but this is out of his control.....the only reason to sell is if you believe the EL is already priced in or you don't believe the EL will be granted ...the rest requires patience....barring a Devon Loch situation, the EL should be confirmed pretty soon
Think it's time MB gave us an update and perhaps this time with a bit more transparency as to exactly what these amendments entailed and the realistic timescale for providing them to the Mongolian government.
The TA on the higher timeframes still unchanged and bullish, as part of the wider uptrend.
The Daily timeframe release the more recent price action, with the price clearly positioned up fortably within the 7.10p-8.10p trading channel, those prices reflecting the minor support & resistance levels.
As we've seen, small trades can move the price quite significantly but generally low volumes seen over the recent trading days.
The market seems to be waiting atm but sellers from what we presume will likely be from lower entries, are being offset by higher level buyers and setting up a more stable platform on any subsequent price rise.
The fundamentals are as previously discussed with the obvious point of progressing towards the EL issuance rns, probably (but not guaranteed) within the next few weeks.
Some speculation(and not without justification) of the Heron field financing being announced at the same time. We know Farm in discussions have taken place and although 'unitisation' with Petro China isn't on the cards, a JV with Petro Matad taking the reigns is a very viable option.
Production and associated revenues are likely to forthcoming in 2022, with any earlier timeframe being a bonus.
Working capital requirements are already covered until Q3 2022, so it's the Exploitation License that will really start to unlock the inherent value in MATD.
The market will be forward looking to revenue generation and the massive potential of the BlockXX extension area, of the proven & producing Tosun Uul Basin, with an estimated 2 Billlion barrels oil in place in the adjacent Blocks XXI & XIX.
The investment criteria as the company position to transition as producers, will likely attract formerly excluded Institutional investment into the stock and replace the more transient retail component, imo.
That should further unlock the higher value price estimates going forward.
My own position has been that of accumulating stock, assuming that the Exploitation License issuance will be a given, the subsequent Re-rate and fundamental shift in the company's standing towards and corresponding price appreciation going forward.
As always do your own independent research in conjunction with the TA & Fundamental factors discussed above.
Not far off. It is just a matter of TIME. 2023 would be GREAT timing, just when Mongolian have their own refinery ready. After all they own their country and know what best is for them. Patience is required. Have a lovely weekend guys.
During petrovis's shareholding, there has been dilution .....MB also insinuated this in the last interview....issuing more shares isn't the problem ...what strike price? How quickly can the capital be used to monetise the assets? I hope we JV with PC....or obtain a loan(s) ....the EL is a given imo....but we need clarity re funding ...that's the big catalyst imo ..... Get the EL....obtain finance.....start production next year....refinery opens 2023....remember this development won't require massive amounts of capital to start....makes you think why didn't they do this when they had £30million but hindsight is a wonderful thing.. I'm really hoping the EL grant is dependent upon finance and petrovis have stepped up.....some type of convertible loan ....we probably only need £20 million....not massive money....if the price of oil gets a shake on, it'd help too
Imo, the EL looks nailed on...it's the funding which is the issue.....I'm crossing my fingers that the licence was issued with assurances re funding.....I'm also hoping we avoid a discounted fund raise...I'd prefer debt .....preferably from petrovis
Ibiza ref your previous message on clutching at straws ref EL RNS date being Mon 7th June, you could actually read it another way - RNS - Mon April 12th - was start of 2nd full week in April - RNS - Mon May 10th was also the start of the 2nd full week in May - now the date of the start of the 2nd full week in June is Mon 14th June !!! - Roll on next Monday lol - for another clutching of straws - here's hoping !!!
..... Third, Mongolia will be an oil-producing country.
Our country has its own oil, but it exports $ 1 billion a year. Our country imports 98% of its fuel. If we become an oil-producing country, not only will $1 billion remain in Mongolia, but the dollar will fall and gasoline prices will fall. An oil refinery will be commissioned and the price of gasoline will be reduced by 20-30 percent. We have completed the infrastructure work. Now we will start building the refinery. By the end of 2023, our oil refinery will be operational. Mongolians will pump Mongolian gas in their cars with Mongolian tugrugs.
Well if anything document amendments hang with the local or National authorities for final sign off then all MB can do is wait...but I'm sure they all want this as much as we do so happy to wait a tad longer.