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Petro Matad (MATD) announced an operational update. They’re progressing the Block XX exploitation licence application and a new CPR increases the total mean un-risked in-place oil resource potential of the Heron structure by 20% to 194 million barrels. Reservoir stimulation studies indicate significant improvements in the recovery factor are possible and the Heron development base case has increased to 33 million barrels recoverable. Challenge is whether they will actually be able to get any further work done this year with the current Coronavirus situation.
a) licence by end June (or mid July)
b) shares soar to 5p+
c) financing @ 4.5p (possibly $10 million)
d) oil flowing from Heron-1 to distributor
e) Heron-2 drill+ success by Christmas
f) year-end SP 8p+
g) ambitious drilling program planned for 2021
My purely hypothetical dream-scheme
Wait to see how close to reality
The drilling season in Mongolia is quite short, due to the severe Winters they have.
I would not expect Petro Matad to be pumping oil out of Heron-1 until 3rd qtr at the soonest.
Then possibly commerce drill Heron-2 also in the 3rd qtr (and if successful cap if off before
Winter freeze-up in November) Of course testing can occur later - and hopefully get results by Christmas. This is as I see it the most optimistic outlook.
All hinges on first obtaining the Exploitation Licence
(after which financing will be secured sufficient for 2020 operations)
in my humble opinion - be sure to do your own research
With the boarder's closed (for now) would it not be in the interest of the Mongolian government to grant PM the exploitation licence ASAP, oil supplies must be running down hence PC wanting to build decontamination centre's at some ports. Maybe it is just a publicity stunt due to certain elections coming up?. Not really sure on that one. If they see PM as a home grown company then I would have thought a fast track to deliver oil would be a huge plus for both parties. Anyway, Manro I hope you will pop into this BB for a chat now and again, I do enjoy your thoughts on PM, I'm here for good fortunes over the next couple of years when this company has turned itself around, I too also thought we would drill this spring but as they say Rome was not built in a day, just going to be a little more patient. I've only been into PM for a couple of years now but still believe that things will come good here. Stay safe everyone and GLTA
Many thanks for your kind comment, mate. I know you are one of the most devoted LTH here with very balanced and truthful POV. And I am wishing you as well as to many other fellow LTH the best of success in your strategies. I am still amongst you and believe that Matad can and will be transformed into one of the most successful company in the world. But for to achieve that Mike and his team have to do much more in terms of discovery. That is the way in my opinion towards outstanding result and great achievement and I hope Mike understands this and will follow exactly this path.
People don’t trust this company because although we have discovered oil we don’t have a license to drill.That is the whole problem as I see it,not financing.Did anyone else presume we would be drilling this spring?
petertee: Your posts are very much appreciated (not only by me I hope!).
One thing I've posted several times in the past was "this is a holding operation" which very much concurs with your reference to "the holding pattern".
PM investors (even LTHs) come and go and if those investors are like me we would (finally) like to see an upward trend regarding PM's operations and its SP. As a PM believer, I hate to point out the fact that the market - although PM has finally struck (commercial) oil - doesn't really believe in its future the way some of us do. That appears to be (at least one of those things) what makes the sellers dump their holdings at these levels. What a shame!
I'm in this to the end - whatever it takes! ATB
I totally get what your saying, selling some stock and getting into others, where there are great opportunities.
But I made the decision to stick with it!
And added more in here, only time will tell if I made the right decision.
Hope you keep some invested here, always good to here your comments. GL buddy
Manro: ' one of the biggest oil reservoirs in the world which have to be discovered yet. '
So not discovered yet? So might not be there?
If it's there and Petro Matad still have the exploitation rights and funds to find it they should do very well but there's a few 'ifs' in that sentence and the only certainty is that it won't be happening this year.
Thanks Manro.I was certainly under the impression that we would be starting drilling in the spring ( is that correct?).One would think that the Mongolian govt would want us to start so that they can get some taxes from us.Why are they delaying.We need to start drilling now before it’s too late and we have to wait another year.
CS: my problem was a very good knowledge of some highly regarded professionals who have made great oil discoveries in Soviet era. I am even in friendship with one of them who told me that there is an oil in Mongolian Gobi. And probably one of the biggest oil reservoirs in the world which have to be discovered yet. But it can be done by true oilman who can travel a lot there and catch it by his every feelings, brain cells and intuition. This is why when Mike appeared on the horizon I thought that perhaps this is a man who are going to be such a discoverer ... And it could happen but didn't unfortunately. Possibly in future.
Ojay: my losses in terms of money not too big but in terms of wasted time very significant and that is which very hard to recognise sometimes and get out ontime.
The IOC will work at the ports to start oil transportation
The IOC will work at the ports to start oil transportation
In order to prevent Covid-19 infection, the Dornod aimag's Special Commission decided to suspend oil transportation operations on January 30. Tomorrow, a working group headed by the Chairman of the State Special Commission U.Enkhtuvshin will work at Bayankhoshuu and Bichigt ports to start oil transportation operations. Petro China Daqing Tamsag has applied to the UOC to build decontamination points at these ports and start shipping operations.
We are still in a holding pattern. This will continue until the License is granted. Hopefully this will be before Summer (and the government distracted by elections)
Though we have enough cash to start oil flowing in Heron-1 we will still need cash to finance Heron-2, and the experienced help and equipment from China (once border security is relaxed)
Still lots to play for in 2020 such as -
1) partners for Zone V
2) permits for Heron-2 3 and 4
3) finalize plans to connect our oil to distribution system
4) formalize plan for 2021 and beyond
5) other considerations
6) getting MB back from Singapore to Mongolia (probably number one)
Manro: I hope the significant reduction of your share holdings was at least a little profitable or only at a small loss. Personally, I couldn't even break even if I sold at the current sp levels. Clearly, the downside would mean losing all - that's what we all would like to avoid.
I for one am willing to remain patient because I believe PM will ultimately turn out good - even better than good. But it's one of those "believer things" which I've been sticking to for many years. Could turn out to be wrong - who knows? ATB
Manro I've previously thought you to be unreasonably optimistic about Petro Matad you now appear to be unreasonably pessimistic?
Go back and look at Mr Bucks presentation and if you can be bothered the posts of that time. The potential positives and negatives were spelt out very clearly by posters. Mr Buck outlined the full range of possibilities but did tend to the positive which is part of his job. He did however specifically mention that nothing was guaranteed and it all might come to nothing in 2020.
He's a good CEO and in time I'm sure it will be OK. How long and how OK however is unclear. Unfortunately for Petro Matad there are currently a lot of other undervalued oil stocks out there primed to bounce on oil discovery or oil price recovery.
It might still be that the exploitation license comes in time to drill Heron this year and it flows well.
Totally agree. I was never disappointed as much as I am now in Matad and specially in Mike. From one side meeting or listening his interview you can conclude that this is the man who in his exact post and whom you can trust entirely. But from an other when you are looking what exactly he is achieved compare with all his talks you can see more failure than achievement. This is why PM today in such a miserable state. And what is look very strange to me how powerless is he about the licence. Especially taking in account his endless talks about the great supportiveness of Mongolian government. So much talks about it and now is March with no license and even no explanation what is going on and why he is talking now about undefined months. As if he is operating in Africa and not in severe whether conditions with very limited drilling time. And leaving us without any clue whether or not he will drill Heron this year or not. Very very disappointed and disrespectful attitude towards LTH and this is why I decided significantly reduce my holdings here and just keep an eye what is going to happen next.
They were!! Now closing boarders again due to fears of a second wave
No one was promised anything Simon. The Mr Buck's media presentations have always struck me as being very balanced and quite clearly raised the prospect of 2020 being a year where nothing happened. You chose not to see this possibility despite it being stated in plain English.
Within the last month or so you've posted about this stock being about to soar and talked about £1 and even £10 parties.
With expectations like that I fear you were always in for a let down.
My expectations are that 2020 will indeed be a wasted year. The funds will run down and they'll fundraise late 2020 with massive shareholder dilution at 2p a share or less? I look forward to considering being on-board for the 2021 drilling campaign. Heron 1 flow test and other wells and hopefully block V?
Hopefully whatever party wins the upcoming election will be as supportive to Petro Matad as the current one is (?!)
With regard to the license I’m very disappointed.I bought into this share because of potential 27billion barrels of oil.at the moment we can’t even get a license for 25 million barrels.What can be the problem to get a piece of paper signed.Please no more excuses that some officials are happy about the license.We want action!We were promised the licence by the end of March but now deferred.Anybody feel the same?
Sensible chat here always welcome
Good news that China is softening some of the restrictions that were placed due to Coved-19.
Possibly supplies (and personnel) for oil drilling will be able to get through to Mongolia after all - when required. Still the approval for Exploration is the primary objective in 2020 for Petro Matad. If we can also get Heron-1 oil hook-up for distribution - that would be a bonus. And if time permits drill Heron-2 as well?
It's ALL to go for in third quarter 2020
First oil by year end?
Funding/ partner by end of summer?
A further crash in oil prices is on the way no doubt as global storage space nears capacity, shouldn't effect us too much not being a producer yet, getting approvals and permits and funding are what will drive the share price up between now and year end so possible multi bagger from here.
It's going to take a couple of years to see oil at $60/$70+ again. imo.
When the Saudis/ Russians have eaten well into their cash reserves (first to blink) will we see them get together to renegotiate output per day. This madness won't last as their economies will collapse, Saudi need $90 pboo to fund it's self to boot.
Just chewing the fat.....
hu, 26th Mar 2020 09:24
(Alliance News) - Mongolian oil explorer Petro Matad Ltd said Monday it is progressing with the exploitation licence application for Block XX, as the Mongolian government advises that there is high level support for the licence grant.
Petro Matad has already submitted detailed appraisal and reserves reports, which are currently being reviewed by the Ministry of Mining & Heavy Industry. Once they are approved, the company will then be required to submit a plan of development and environmental impact assessment, which Petro Matad said is "well advanced".
As part of preparing the reserves report, Petro Matad commissioned Leap Energy to prepare a competent persons report for the northern part of Block XX, where the Heron and Gazelle discoveries are located.
The CPR concluded that the Heron discovery has mean, unrisked in-place oil resource potential of 194 million barrels, 20% higher than Petro Matad's initial internal assessment.
Within its portfolio, Petro Matad said it plans to relinquish Block IV, due to the short time left on the production and sharing contract without any high-graded drillable targets.
Meanwhile, the company has proposed to the Mongolian government for a moratorium on the PSC for Block V to give more time for the securing of funding and partners for the next phase of exploration.
This is for the drilling of prospects in the block where active petroleum systems have been discovered.
Looking towards the Covid-19 outbreak, Petro Matad noted that the Mongolian government has banned public gatherings until the end of April, and its land border with China has been closed to everything but cargo.
Should measures such as these be prolonged, the company said they will impact the Mongolian
Mongolian oil sector, which relies a lot on Chinese equipment and workers in production and development operations.
"Our staff and contractors are working exceptionally hard in the highly unusual circumstances that the ongoing coronavirus pandemic has generated and the company is very appreciative of their commitment and diligence. We are monitoring the situation closely and are pleased to advise that there has been no significant impact on Petro Matad's operations, whilst we focus our efforts towards securing approvals and permits for the company's near-term work programme," said CEO Mike Buck.
Shares in Petro Matad remained flat at 2.1 pence on Thursday in London.
By Dayo Laniyan; firstname.lastname@example.org
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