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Goehring & Rozencwajg commentary on the near-term future for the oil market ( the document is about the gas market but it also discusses the oil market): ------ "We are now beginning to understand what a world looks like as it runs out of spare oil pumping capacity. Even with the huge releases of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil prices have hardly pulled back. Global inventories, now at record lows, continue to draw counter-seasonally and are reaching dangerously low levels. Even with all the dislocations caused by the Ukrainian conflict and COVID problems in China, global oil demand in Q4 will approach global pumping capability according to our modelling. Strong demand, declining production, record low inventories, and now no spare pumping capacity—all these factors will push oil prices higher in the second half of 2022. Even in the face of all these factors, investor interest in energy markets remains incredibly subdued. The advances we have seen to date have basically been short covering and active managers buying on the margin. Once investors and institutions realize the energy market has fundamentally changed and the decade of cheap, abundant energy is over, the amount of capital that rushes into this sector could be huge. The global energy crisis has just started, and it will take many years to fix. For those that make investments today, the rewards could be immense. " -----
lambo: I asked investor relations on the topic of bringing in a rig from somewhere else, they responded as per the below:
"International mobilisation costs tend to make contractors without equipment already in country uncompetitive on price unless a commitment can be made to a very large programme but Petro Matad will continue its discussions with DQE and other drilling contractors and will update the market on progress when necessary. "
I do believe we will hit 12p when we drill and have heron 1 on output as this will clear and ready the oath for us to continue with H2, H3, also if we get velociraptor closer to drilling, could be great year, things are looking good shirt, medium and long term.
More chance of me sprouting wings and flying to MB penthouse suite than these clowns drilling this year. They hve had 2 years to arrange the rig contracts and yet still nothing, they could have bought rigs from anywhere in the world well in advance but chose to rely on Petro China, it’s direct competitor, staggering really when you consider they have had 2 years to source a rig for a simple shallow on land drill, and they blame Covid, joke of a company imo
Gold_Mine: Thx for that - excellent post. As a (at least according to Hamm) a pathetic poster I would like to add that PM has - over the years (10+) - lost a lot of its credit in the market; some will say justifiably. OK. But PM's business case remains to be extraordinary. Once this company starts to produce oil its SP will go ballistic. Not many investors believe in that - which is fine. But if it does happen - which I am convinced of - there will no looking back. Do what you think is right. ATB
Nice to see the SP holding up in a terrible market bloodbath today. Hopefully the weaker holders have been shook out.
I try to remember that in Petro Matad's 14 year history it has never been in such a good position, - Oil resource discovered and Exploitation license granted - Fund raise already carried out ($10million) with sufficient cash in the bank to bring on the Heron field - The award of the contract to build the new crude oil pipeline between block 19 and the new Mongolian refinery locks in the importance of the Heron field to the Mongolian government and PetroChina both due to close proximity to block 19 - High and rising oil price environment likely to be sustained due multi-year underinvestment in new oil fields and exclusion of Russia from energy markets - OPEC projected to run out of spare production capacity this year according to some analysts - Multiple signals have been given out by the Mongolian central government that they want and need an oil industry and will be supportive to companies looking to develop new fields
Whilst sentiment is currently low in MATD due to the placing last year and general market negativity/chinese covid restrictions, MATD has never been closer to oil production - surface equipment has been ordered and there is almost 6 full months left in the drilling season in Mongolia.
The current share price looks like a bargain entry point for those willing to take a low-risk bet which offers potential returns of multiples of the current share price,
Derampers can post whatever you like as long as it’s factual.But be careful about Posting untruths as they could be construed as trying to manipulate the share price,which of course is a criminal offence.
Anyone missing thir leader Fair Analyst? Dont fret! You can find him on POLY if needed. Hes very active there and has posted 5 times already this morning. In fact he has posted 1825 posts since joining LSE less than 6 months ago on 20th December 2021. Thats some going! I post quite often and have been on LSE since 2009 but I've still only managed to clock up 774 posts in 13 years.
I guess his boss has told him to focus on POLY as no point trying to ramp MATD at the moment...?
One thing I do agree with him though is his post today at 0752 in which he states "im not interested in conspiracy theories.... thats just BB fodder and gossip"
My holding here is £45k at 5.5p. I think this will come good! but aware of the problems, which have also been honestly addressed by the MATD management. Thankfully...
Signing out as this is a playground with populist tendencies. Full of "Non valeurs" who don't post any information for the board to discuss and evaluate, but only voice opinions and make ad hominem attacks on anyonr that isnt ramping the bejeebers out of the share.
Good luck to all genuine long term realistic and honest holders.
Ojay, you are the most pathetic person/ poster ever! Period. Everyone regardless of being shareholders or how many shares he/she has is entitled to express his/ her own views. You may go back to your motto. In MATD I trust! Keep trusting you stupid .... No offense Ojay. Guys peace.
Been observing the news coming out of a cabinet meeting that Mongolia considers the Petro China PSC illegal and potentially corrupt having not also paid adequate tax.
I admire the governments stand on anti corruption and especially the Prime Ministers push for change, which is a difficult topic to address in Mongolia, but shows the investment landscape is changing for the better.
I think as this change is integrated into the business sector within Mongolia this is good for Matad and it’s investors.
The difference is - as you know - is that until then nobody will be taking notice of your posts; but sure: feel free to post whatever you please - it's your time going to waste - that appears to be what you're good at.
We have been promised that we will start producing by end of June.That for me is written in stone.Derampers stop trying to put the wind up fellow investors. If we are not drilling by 30th June you can post what you like.
I guess my question is based upon the data revealed today, if the government wants increased production, are making clear to Petro China they must meet production criteria, why are Petro Matad not progressing from an explorer to a production company far quicker.
It does appear the government are keen to source oil from within the country. It is also very clear the major ministries are supportive of an increase quota.
Why then are Matad seemingly struggling with what are clear government objectives.
At the regular Cabinet meeting, the Minister of Industry and Trade, Mr. G. Yondon was introduced .
At the meeting, the Minister was instructed to present the production sharing agreement and oil reserves and production to the National Security Council .
In the future, the government will set up a working group chaired by the Deputy Prime Minister to intensify oil exploration and production. The working group will review the production sharing agreement concluded with PetroChina Daqing Tamsag LLC and resolve the issue of renewing the agreement in accordance with the relevant legislation. The Prime Minister's decrees and official instructions will also be sent to the governors of the aimags where oil reserves can be identified .
Mongolia has been exporting oil since 2012, and the PetroChina Daqing Tamsag field is expected to produce 1.5 million tons of oil a year . However, at its peak, it reached 1.1 million tons per year . Therefore , it is necessary to increase the supply of raw materials for the refinery to be commissioned in 2025 . In particular, PetroChina Daqing Tamsag will follow through on its deposit development plan, increase production, and build up reserves by intensifying exploration in other potential areas.
In the past, a total of 2 trillion 35 billion MNT has been transferred to the state budget under oil production sharing agreements, and about 200 billion MNT is paid to the state budget annually