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I've just sent this off to RF.
Good afternoon Mr Findlay.
I am a shareholder of Marston's with a modest holding, but I have a couple of questions to ask relating to a couple of points that have caught my attention of late.
My first point relates to the tie in with Brains. I can see some benefit of linking in with them, but the detail of the rationale behind your reasoning may be, along with what the coatings are, and what we are likely to get out of it for ourselves.
Another point I've come across, was that When can Shareholders expect to see the Management Agreement promised for the 5th February?
Intial agreement stated we were to manage 156 pubs within Brain's estate, yet I understand that the analyst's presentation states 107 plus 30 under par Pubs, where are the remaining 19 pubs?
Also, with the Platinum approach that was made, I understand that there were at least 3 different offers were made. I get that 2 of them were low value offers, which I can understand as being dismissed out of hand, however, it seems strange that no mention of these approaches were made to shareholders via an RNS. My own view of the 3rd offer of £1.05 being rejected, to me is entirely justified. As when "Normality"resumes in life after lockdown, the value of the business will very easily reach beyond this figure.
Speaking for myself, I am invested here because of the service I have received in a couple of the Marston's pubs I have been in. I have mentioned one of the pubs myself and family have visited in Stourbridge while visiting friends that live in the area to you a while back.
I appreciate that you have a lot on your plate at the moment, but I would appreciate your thoughts on these questions when you have a moment please.
Thank you.
Fairdealer/Trent
I must confess to feeling much the same as FD, I have become disillusioned with this "mushroom" attitude that the BoD seem to be using currently.
Certainly more interaction from the board would be warmly welcomed.
I'm not gonna be able to do it until Monday at the earliest now but I will get on to it.
Hi Trent, yes, keep it brief.
When can Shareholders expect to Management Agreement promised for the 5th February?
Intial agreement stated we were to manage 156 pubs within Brain's estate, yet today the analyst's presentation states 107 plus 30 under par Pubs, where are the remaining 19 pubs?
precis it to suit Trent if you wish.
Fairdealer. Tell me what you want putting in. And if anyone else can think of anything stick it on here. But if you could keep it brief, it would be helpful.
Thanks Trent, would be grateful if you would write. I seem to make too many bullets!!!
Cheers
Fairdealer.
Some valid points. Some of your points do need answers. One way to find out would be to email RF and ask for direct answers.
Shall I take the lead?
Call me a pessimist, I prefer realist. I do not agree with expectations voiced, for the following.
There will be a stampede once pubs etc open up. Let's assume it will be May, the sector have lost 2 of the most valuable income periods with Christmas/New Year and Easter. This leaves the hoped for lucrative summer which given good weather could be a bonanza, don't forget some huge sporting events, Olympics, Euro Cup etc etc. Some of these events, Olympics are likely to be stay at home for most and will aid off-sales but not Pub sales. Looking at the accounting year, ends 30 September, a hell of a lot of lost income has got to made in 5 months. There won't be any profit for the current year.
Looking at the role of the CEO, the clear intention to not engage with Platinum by the hasty completion of the arrangement with Brains demonstrates a closed mind. Remembering Platinum were not enamered by the Brain's event, they had until the end of February to make a final offer...we will never know how much more would have been on the table above 105p.
It is symptomatic of the mind-set, that whilst negotiations were taking place with Brains in early December, 2 offers were put forward by Platinum which PI's were not informed until end January. Now ( today) we are told about an Analsyts presentation today focused on the future with the Welsh estate., and shareholders are still waiting the Management Agreement promised on the Brain's Completion day ( 5th February).
Shareholders are in the dark on the substance of this agreement.
The original understanding stated there are 156 pubs in the Brains estate which Marstons would manage.
The Presentation to Analysts states 107 pubs plus 30 below par where a peppercorn rent will be due for 18 months.
Rent on the Brain Estate is due in Advance.
Where are the missing 19 pubs?
Are Marston's enhancing the 30 below par pubs in return for Nil rent?
The problem, as I see it, until the Management Agreement is published, what exactly is Marstons letting it self in for? The plain fact is Ordinary Shareholders do not know.
It may seem pessimistic, but questions need answers, any LTH should be concerned at the disdainful way in which information is obscure or being witheld.
AIMO
DYOR
I agree with Trent on this, I think some here are taking an overly pessimistic view; it's highly likely waivers will be signed and Mars has more than enough liquidity to see them through until reopening anyway. Furlough scheme also allows for a financially flexible reopening at a perfect time (June-Sep) when consumer spending will surely be at an all time high (indeed, the young will be spending like millionaires, combined with all the staycationing).
In terms of analytics, the SP is showing positive signs that is gradually re-rating back to pre-covid levels.
Still holding here with a target of 1.30-1.50 medium term.
Good morning London 69.
Yes, Indeed. I get your point on waiting to see what transpires sp wise on it's own merit. I rather think that you perhaps look at things a little more clinically than I do with this one. I'll be joining you in raising a glass of two when the pubs open and we are proved to be right.
Have a good day mate.
Good morning Trent,
I agree it's more than probable that we will get to 105p and only at that point will I say well done to RF for making the right call for shareholders.
Thanks
@London69.
Looking at current sp, I would say that expecting to see £1.05 on the open market in the short to med term is a reasonable assumption to make. The probability of reaching beyond that med to long term as lockdown restrictions ease and pubs re-open is also a reasonable assumption to make.
Based on that logic I believe it to be a fair assessment of why I'd said that RF was correct in rejecting. Platinum's approach.
Hi Fairdealer,
We seem to be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves with some suggesting RF rejecting an offer of 105p was the right decision, however its too early to say that and tell me that when the share price increases above that level.
I do think the waivers are somewhat of a formality and given that they are big banks, I expect then to sign, however there maybe an increase in the interest rate.
I would expect secondary secured lenders to get anywhere around 8%.
Good evening all.
barchid, I totally agree. You only need to read the text of the last waiver and it seemed to me they (BNP) are a much tougher bunch of Bankers. Hope RF is not relying on the Covid sympathy card!!
Fairdealer & YoYoMa
I have to say I am a little nervous re BNP in the background, these waivers seem to be taken ASAP, perhaps rightly, but time alone will tell if they have driven more resonable lenders into the arms of BNP.
YoYoMa, will not repeat my views on the Brain's venture. It should be a concern when the initial understanding was agreed on 23rd December, we were informed Full details of the Management Agreement would be issued at the same time the Agreement was Completed. As most may remember Completion was hastily done on 5th February. the RNS was released after close of markets on a Friday. We are still waiting for details of the Brain's Management Agreement.
This is poor form to say the least.
RBG did very well and the RNS was what we needed to give us a boost and lift moral. They have done well to last and at one point did think they'd implode but they managed to stay afloat.
The locations of the prems will no doubt be filled with the youth spending like millionaires weekend.
Some good and very practical points, but also read RBG's RNS today and if they're feeling positive about the future then I'm pretty sure Mars can too!
Good point FD, the waivers are being used too often and I sense with the restructuring in a lot fin companies there may be more resistance this time round. The SP is looking good and may take a slight knock once the outcome is known but we're in a much better potions than most. I am very keen to see the overall plans for the SA Brains deal, my local MARS has had some good work on it over the past few months so they're spending on some pubs, not sure to what extent.
Hope all is well with here and your all in good shape.
Joe suggest you read the previous waiver applications, this is the 3rd in 12 months. On the last occasion HSBC agreed a waiver on the basis loan payments were reveiwed in April 2021 when business activity may have returned to some form of normality. The conditions of that waiver includes the transfer of the Bonds to BNP Parabas when interest rates will be amended on agreement at the end of this year. If agreement on rates are not agreed there is a formal mechanism to remedy any impasse that may exist. The agreement with BNP Parabas will not allow further waivers. Not at this point but after transfer to BNP which is later this year.
Would've gone above that this morning if it wasn't for the RNS I reckon.
(albeit still a positive RNS, agree that MARS will emerge very strongly, expecting a rise anywhere between 1.30-1.50 come summer)
It looks to me that RF was right to bin off their approach. £1.05 (and beyond) is easily achievable in the short to medium term now with possible easing of lockdown and I understand that beer & fag duty not being increased.