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Fairdealer, I agree and I disagree. Lol. Risk assessment is also by definition a speculative activity if you are putting your money on it. But yeah mindless ramping or deramping is not a good look.
I agree this is a ruinous path that we appear to be taking. But there are signs of light in the tunnel. Redcar are taking part in a mass test of their whole population from November. It's an experiment to see if they can find everyone who is symptomatic and asymptomatic and support them to isolate as necessary. If it works they can roll it out and we can move away from the nationwide sledgehammer to find nuts approach that we are currently engaged with. And we can start going to the pub sometimes along with other joys!
Tricky....... speculation is for Traders and there are many on these boards who ramp, de-ramp and so on.
Long term Holders, and there are many of us, are in for income and forward capital growth. The income return here was better than most investments, was being the operative word. We are now looking a forward looking plan which will return this company to the dividend list which in turn adds value to the SP. Long term holders tend to assess risk and not speculate as Traders, who are here today and gone tomorrow.
The virus does not make me personally anxious . I cannot see how an Economy can stand constant returns to lock-down and sustain the irreparable damage being created. A vaccine is still very uncertain, remember Sars was around 10 years ago and still no vaccine. The difference now with CV19 as opposed to March when it began to ravage economies, we now have treatments, not a vaccine, which are effective. The question is why continue down this ruinous course?
Of course uncertainties are the Tools of a speculator ( Trader)!!!
Thx Giantsquid. Lovely succinct summary of the projected market cap after the Carlsberg JV is signed off. Very resonant of Nils Pratley's tip in the Guardian although you have unpacked your assumptions more transparently.
Hey Fairdealer, newsflash- all investing is speculative activity! The point is whether the speculation is rational. The market hasn't priced in the JV. The uncertainty of the virus is making us all more anxious than usual. It's waiting till it's signed off. When the announcement was first made the immediate sp response has shown us exactly what the market will do. The only risk is will it go ahead. We've been told by Carlsberg that it will go ahead. No brainer.
A valuation of £780m relies on Carlsberg retaining loan debt ( cannot see it as Carlsberg UK are purely a Brewing Company), unless the Parent is going to take over the debt?)
On the basis £230m will add to Mars NAV, until the full year accounts are published in December and we know the value of the retained Estate , it is pure speculation how high or low that value will be . If an 85% discount is correct, why has the Market not recognised?
Apart from how the JV will work through, the Whole Hospitailty sector is in turmoil because unlike previous major Economic disruptions, this one is different and uncharted waters. Company's who survive are financially strong and prepared for diversification in the Changing World we are living through.
Exactly Tricky, Reincarmated just posts nothing relevant just a deramping idiot zZz
We know that next week will see anything from 50- 100% uplift on this share price. So a bit of mystery yes. But not like the convoluted, desperate deramping going on here with Supercharger's delusional nonsense. Mate. It's not going to 30p. Buy in now. This is a superb price. I might buy some more after my walk so knowing my luck the price will be up a bit by then, lol. The time is right now.
No point trying to manipulate a lower sp. Investors see you coming. And it must be humiliating for you? Quite hard to watch.
Just buy back in and be done with it. I promise not to laugh about it ;)
Current market cap = £292,400,000
Marston's 40% stake in the new company will be worth £312m (40% of the £780m valuation)
Add to that initial proceeds from the sale of Marston's beer company = an additional £230m
Therefore, upon completion of the JV net asset value will be £312m + £230m = £542m
Which is around 85% greater than the current market cap
Factor in investor sentiment and potential upside from the current share price, upon completion of the JV is around 80% to 100% (or more) around £0.80 to £0.90 per share, or more.
The bottom line is, a hugely value enhancing, company transformative deal is due to be completed imminently - and the JV is definitely not priced in.
who does have concrete evidence on any stock? that is called ''insider trading'' The bottom line is the pub industry will not return to normal even this time next year. To this effect all stocks will be compromised and we will not see a ''false rally'' like we saw in March after the crash where so many stocks doubled. This was on the hope Covid would be gone quickly, when in essence it will be around even this time next year with a Vaccine that will be mediocre at best.
You seem to have concrete evidence that the SP is already factored in> Can you also share this fir enlightenment? I saw several posted recently where you state that this will not raise on the notification and you're still harping on about going to low 20's...... How come experienced traders and still buzzing on this JV and will see a huge uplift on buys once announced for certainty yet you think it will be depreciated.
but don't think it will surge, news factored into SP already