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FD
I must admit that with the new brewery financial arrangements I am pretty much discounting revenues from there until we see their accounts. I am viewing Marstons at present as a pubco with rooms. I hope to be pleasantly surprised with brewing numbers but am certainly not betting on it. As a lth I do feel that Mars has been less than transparent with events since the pandemic & that, rightly or wrongly, puts me into cautious mode. I highlighted the City Pub no's as they are relevant to Mars performance & I was pleasantly surprised with them.
But as you say, CMBC are surely trading on thin margins.
@FD. Yes, you're right. Supermarket chains are notorious for this.
I'm not sure how the trading update will present itself, but it'll be good to see what the numbers are, however they are presented.
Hope you are well mate.
barchid, Trent, remember super markets will be supplied by CMBC of which we have a 40% share and supermarkets notoriously negotiate wafer thin margins for suppliers.
Sales may well be up which is good for cash flow.
Wonder if we will get direct reports from CMBC?
@ Barchid.
I would expect to see a very similar comment on this in our next RNS, although I would say our numbers may well read slightly better, as income from off sales from the supermarkets would add to the figures. Marston's pubs will be operating to the same percentages as theirs, so those that can't get in to their local, may well get off to Morrison's et al and buy their beers from their. Some are likely to pick some of our brands up too, particularly if they are on offer. I saw Carlsberg advertised in an Asda advert the other day, so there is likely to be some take up there.
Atb.
I see City Pub Group is now trading at 90% of their 2019 level, which has to be a result in anyones book.
One item they raise though, which goes against various posts here is that trading is not being influenced by the Euros football as the crowd limits cut in to stop them really making hay.
Nevertheless, it shows what can happen, let us hope MARS is similarly benefitting.
@ Shaperite.
Apologies for my late response.
I'm not 100% against the Brain's deal. I can see a good deal of merit to it. Mainly for exposure of our brand in virgin teritory. I see nothing wrong with that.
What I do take issue with, is the seemingly haste in how this came about. I am not convinced by a long way that RF got the best deal that he could for the business, or for us shareholders.
This coupled with the Brain's boss sailing off into the sunset shortly afterwards, and (being unkind) RF seemingly doing the same shortly after that raises some questions to my mind.
A better deal would have been available in my view had he simply waited a while to do a full and more detailed forensic examination of the state of the Brain's finances and the general health of the company, and an offer being made which would have offered fair value to us.
SHAPERITE
I have searched the agreement and it sant in regards repairing leases and no mention of the 40 sub standard pubs. It would appear the original consideration ( 23rd Dec) was not amended when the deal was completed.
If you have followed events there are certain events to keep in mind.
Ralph has made some strange agreements.
Sells a bunch of Pubs to Admiral at a knock down price.
The deal with Brains was hastily completed, curiously just as Platinum were showing interest.
Once the Brain's deal was completed, immediately Brain's Chairman resigned and not many after Ralph announced his departure.
You are right Shareholders are entitled to know what is going on. When the deal with Brains was announced on 23rd December we were told full details of the management agreement would be published before the deal completed.
Fairdealer20, Thank you for your input but it still does not answer the basic questions that I posed i.e. the deal would probably contain clauses that eventually necessitated not including the 40 odd sub standard houses after an inspection. Brains were in financial difficulties without doubt but to say that RF could have made a better deal is pure speculation without knowing all the facts afterall it would be a board decision not his alone!Regarding repairing leases, we dont know but the members of the board will, and they have no specific mandate to share that information with minor shareholders like us but it was a buisiness decision to improve our income and hopefully our share price. People on the outside always think that the people who are in charge are not competent and could have always done better. The next trading year will give us an insight one way or another. Keep the faith
SHAPERITE
Marstons and Brains signed contracts on 23rd December. Marstons were to lease/manage 156 pubs. When the deal completed in early Feb the numbers of Pubs had decreased to 116, 40 were considered below par.
This signifies a deal was done when the Brains Estate had not been surveyed. In other words RF bought a pig in a poke.
I challenge anyone to discover details of the agreement. Does the agreement come with a repairing lease?
What is known Brains were payed 6 months up front. It is known Brains were having financial problems to the point they may have collapsed. So Trent is right, had RF been a little more careful, a better deal could have been made.
2 tips today, Yahoo Finance says Marstons is a buy, as does Shore Capital, reported in City Wire this pm
Trent, Please correct me if I am wrong but I take it that on principle you do not object to the deal with Brains as you stated that RF could have scooped them up at a heavy discount if the free funds were there to do so. My question is how do you know the details of the deal that has been done? Only a sketchy leaseback detail has been announced, The deal must have had the approval of the board and been costed accordingly! As a shareholder myself I see the whole deal as a positive one,
a chance to grow the brand and make a presence in South Wales that previously was poor. It will not be a quick fix but you
only make money by laying some cash or guarentees out. Come on Marsdens ,England & Wales (Football I mean).
That seems like a well balanced assessment, Fairdealer.
Work seems to need to be done on our estate to improve our offering, based on your observations it would seem. To my mind, I think RF should have concentrated on that rather than chasing Brains to pull them out of whatever situation they were in. I've said this before, that's what they should have done and left Brains to their fate, and then possibly looked to have scooped them up at a heavy discount if the free funds were there to do so.
Just my opinion, of course.
Fairdealer
Many thanks for that, food for thought (or not if only half english!).
Barchid, Trent,
In the lost post I did compare the service and meal provision of Marstons and Premier Inn ( Beefeater)
Remember I was looking at it from a Customer's point of view.
Too within a penny or 2, breakfast costs were similar. Both meals were well cooked and presented. The Beefeater breakfast was more generous than Marstons which was meagre and not substantial. Both were Full English ( Marstons could be called 1/2 English)
Value was best at Beefeater.
Value and cost controls is good for Marstons Shareholders, but unless meal content is addressed, some customers may prefer other providers.
Staffing in both venues is clearly an issue, which makes one wonder how the hospitality sector is going to serve the expected demand this summer.. Considering my visits were over the weekend when occupancy was higher staff numbers were in the case of Marstons, where staff were predomanently younger, were run off their feet. At Beefeater staff were rather more mature and better organised.
How all venues are going to cope once the peak of holiday season arrives must be a concern to all Hospitality venues. It does seem many of the cheaper employees ( Eastern European) have disappeared which is leaving a large void for managers. This is where Management Organisational skills will come to the fore.
From what I have seen Marstons need to be more active in identifying weaknesses within individual venues, something which should have been addressed during lockdown. It may have been, but is not apparent now re-opening has occured.
Fairdealer
Very interesting, certainly I have not been impressed with the Marstons room offer but that could be because I was looking in the wrong places though does indicate their standard is too variable.
On the bookings front though they do seem late June early July to be very busy which augurs well.
@ Fairdealer.
I've not had the opportunity to stay at a Marston's Inn as yet, so I can't really do a like for like comparison.
I have no reason to doubt your word, if you say that your experience was not as good as could be, then I'll take that as so.
I've only stayed at 2 Premier Inns, the one in Stourbridge (which at roughly 4 years old now is still fair to consider as a new (ish) build). The other one I went to in Newcastle did create the impression of being somewhat older, but the standard between the two were pretty much on a LFL basis.
Some of the Marston's Inns from pictures on their website do also look good too, but a picture does not always tell the full story, and doubtlessly, we will have some that need to be freshened up , which as I've said preciously, that the money spent on the Brains deal could easily have been better employed in achieving that goal.
ATB mate.
barchid, Trent,
Returned last night from another trip and used both Marstons (Friday) and Premier Inn(Saturday)
On a scale of 1-10 would give Premier 8 and Marstons 6.
Briefly occupancy at both who are on Tourist Routes, was 50% Marstons and 90% Premier. I based this assessment on car park use.
Did complete a comparable report last night but disappeared before posting. Do'nt have time to repeat now.
Hi Barchid.
That does sound promising. It's good for us that the demand is there. Very encouraging.
£120 a night does sound about right. When were supposed to have gone to the Premier Inn the other week, they wanted just over £250, but that was for 4 of us for 2 nights including unlimited breakfasts for us all for the Sunday & Monday. We had to have 2 rooms though as our oldest lad is 17.
We 're booked it for July when they're off school but they want another £70 on top with it being peak time. Not really unexpected but still.
Hope you're doing ok mate.
Trent
Some good news, after reading the weekend press tips on Spoons & Premier Inns I thought I would check the availability of rooms in Marstons pubs with rooms, on their websites. I picked 10 at random which were reasonably close to, or in, a tourist type of area & always for dates pre the school holidays & it is fair to say that the rooms available appear to be about as rare as rocking horse manure. I pub I had booked to stay in a few years ago had 1 room only available at £120 pn. Having been allocated this same room those years ago it is fair to say it was not at all nice, so if it fetches that price for the next few months it has to be a good sign indeed. I was alerted to the firmness in room prices by a contact who often uses air bnb & he told me their prices had doubled or tripled in some places he often uses so our heavily booked estate backs up his air bnb story. Hopefully MARS can find enough experienced staff to work in these places & we might receive a pleasant surprise.
Especially pleasant after our esteemed board kicked Platinum's offer into touch without a by your leave.
@ Agurney.
RE: Knowing your customer. Yes, there are a few companies that could well be learning that lesson the hard way over the coming weeks/months. Koppaberg, for one (among others) who are taking quite the backlash for swerving GB News.
Quite a lot of comments on social media saying that customers will be boycotting them because of it.
Always a bad move peace ing off half your customer base.
I was surprised to receive marketing emails yesterday for some Scottish Marstons pubs titled "Want the best place to watch England?" .. and amused by today's reverse ferret from the same venues "We’ve given our email sender the red card."
It pays to know your customer.
I know we are 'burying the hatchet' guys....but I can't resist
/***
* Hope your chickens come home to roost, assuming they are not shot first!!!
***/
A fowl joke with a poultry outcome
All the best
The Original Rooster
I love King Crimson...thanks guys...I can remember quite a bit about things back then :)
Anyway
ha ha...fair enough
I have enjoyed the exchange...but as you prob realise no one ever wins these things :)
And I am very good at this type of thing...put it down to a misspent youth...and was a bit bored at the time I started this current exchange
However
As this is a recent alias the following information does not appear in my history
Consider it a courtesy to you both that I would like to state the following:
1. My interweb trading history extends back over 25 years...I am still in it...having won and lost...currently winning
2. I have been in and out of MARS many times over the last few years...along with a number of my colleagues...I do not speak for them of course...but Internet Trading is into new territory now...and I am keeping up
3. I am using a new alias...we have met before...chuckle
4. I do in fact...value you and your colleagues contributions
5. The people that should irritate you...are the shorters ( in the correct meaning of the word )...de-ramping a stock to make money out of loss seems to lack ethics to me
6. Day trading ( and I am not really a day trader ) has the positive effect of smoothing out the prices in the trenches...and graceful exist strategies work in the favour of long-term holders
7. If in fact you do find my comments irritating...thats fine...just filter me...otherwise lets see if we can help each other ?
Thats it
Kind Regards as always
The Original Jimster
Fairdealer
I fear the poster whose name rhymes with Tesla (a clone perhaps ?) is a fine example of the old proverb "empty vessels make the most noise".
WRT his shrink I fear King Crimson beat the shrink to it with their 21st Century Schizoid Man, which sums him up a treat.
I did promise him to keep it comedic but he does it for me.
As always Jimster, No Substance, even the elusive assumptions are a mystery. Bet your shrink has fun trying to unravel your algorythms.
Confucius say Arrogance makes Stupidity.
Hope your chickens come home to roost, assuming they are not shot first!!!