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Bloomberg announce Breakthrough with anti virus injections14 Jul '20
Moderna in final trials to start producing a vaccine. Final test now on 30,000 high risks and if successful their drug will be produced. Appears to be on the back of successful prelim trials. Sooner or later we will have a breakthrough and some pedigree!
@willywonka On the face of it what you say makes sense, however with debt the size of Marstons it might not be the intention of the board to have a rights, but they could well be forced to have one by their bankers. It is as simple as that.
All my money invested here is in the hope of burgeoning off trade sales with home delivery to get maximum return on their JV. It must be a good way forward with mobile adverts on the side of vans all over the country.
@perkylad If they were the owners of Costa still I would be inclined to agree but didn't they sell them 2 years ago to Coke ? So premier Inns, Brewers fare, Beefeaters are not too bad to compare the rump Marstons pubs with rooms/motel style lodges now the brewery is no longer in their control. Where they do not compare to Marstons is their net debt figure though, hence they can buy bargains rather than have to sell them. That was how I read the point that was being made. Posters on here that think there is no need for a rights issue clearly have not bothered to look at the accounts too closely, imho.
I agree on some points you make about the JV. However you need to ask yourself where marston's would be if this never happened. No JV is perfect, especially ones under such extreme circumstance. Marston's had very little scope to negotiate given their situation prior of falling sales and climbing debt and serious risk of significant dilution to SH or default on credit.
I'm sure you cannot disagree that the JV was absolutely the right thing to do. Sure they didnt get the best deal but what do you expect given the situation.
As for a rights issue, there is no basis for this happening anytime soon and cant even be dignified as a rumour. Most investors are cognisant in understanding that companies have rights issues at some point in time, stating the obvious doesnt get you brownie points. They are awarded when you can be a little less vague and give us a time basis for such a rights issue. This year? This decade?
I can offer an arguement against a rights issue this year. Why would the directors not buy up the rights issue instead of buying on the open market unless they are mentally impaired? If a rights issue was not done in the last month when SP was materially higher, why would they do one now? Talk of a rights issue this year makes absolutely no sense.
@fairdealer As usual you have hit the nail on the head, when I posted yesterday suggesting a rights issue was likely I did not go into detail with the numbers as I (clearly wrongly) assumed that fellow posters on the site were cogniscant of the MARS financial situation. The responses to my post were somewhat surprising as there seem to be a significant number of investors here that invest on the basis "this has fallen a long way, bound to go back up soon" and take great umbrage at anyone who does not invest on that basis. We live and learn eh ?
Posters should consider these facts. Debt as at 30th September 2019.....c £1.3billion JV receipt ( Q3).............................,,,,£237m Debt repayment due 2023.................£350m JV agreement provides MARS with a proportionate lower share of profits which will be lower than current. There needs to be a 22% increase in joint consolidated profits for Marstons to mark time with current (2019) profits.
Until the BOD announce level of foot fall since re-opening there can be no knowing how Sales are recovering. Anything else is pure speculation. Others in the sector are prepared for a significant decline in customer traffic. Whitbread who have raised £1billion in a Rights have openly stated sales will remain low for some considerable time. Whitbread's Rights have allowed them to pick up Travelodge who are severely distressed. The company will require funds to bring back Capital and Enhancement projects cancelled last Summer. Others in the sector are/have raised funds to support Balance Sheets.
It would be wise for the company to raise funds through a Rights issue before the Annual Accounts are issued in November.
Personally I don't see there being a rights issue at all... MARS leadership acted quickly in March and limited Cash Burn to £10 million per month. 3.5 months later and adjusting for a slow restart in July there is approx 40 million lost due to the shutdown.
Now, in Q3 there will be a 237 million windfall which will eventually be used to pay down debts due in 2023 but in the interim one would assume they will hold the cash incase of any further imminent cash burn such as one caused by a second lockdown (which is unlikely IMHO).
Yes capacity is down but the govt have just given all pubs and restaurants a further 15% saving for food etc so although the consumer will still pay full price (apart from during the Aug 50% off scheme) companies like MARS will generate more from food sales. This will last even in the less profitable months as the scheme ends in January 2021.
I see this share being a strong performer in the long term from the current levels and have a moderate holding of a fair few thousand shares. All hospitality stocks tracked down after the speech and they will probably all slowly rise over the next 12-24 months with there being a huge lift once either a vaccine is found or once divis are reinstated.
Not to mention MARS get another 40 million by Sept 2021 should a basket of 5 shares (Britvic, M&B, MARS, AG Barr and C&C) achieve levels they were at on March 5th (in the middle of the CV downturn)... At least that's what I got from the RNS.
All in my opinion and as always do your own research but currently I'm sat in the red not phased happy to ride the long term buying the dips but I don't see this going much further down now we've seen a 40% drop since the 75p high. Good luck all
Oh please try harder for goodness sake do you honestly think that the combined might of JPM/Caz and Numis would come up with a refinancing JV deal with Carlesburg UK and increase lending facilities .....only to have to go to market for a rights issue......Purile deramping to the extreme....the announcements contain big picture cash flow implications which show there is (currently) adequate head room.....its misleading posts like this that suck
As cash flow returns any positive statement will send this share price upwards fast!13 Jul '20
Marstons conducted quickly a distribution share agreement with Carlsberg to help sell the beers during the lockdown to improve its sale position when cash flow was non existent from its pubs/hotels during lock down. Now the pubs are re-opening cash flow will return, with projections that many will stay and holiday in the Uk later this year. Once we get a positive statement from the Board on this I see this share will rise very quickly indeed. I do not see the need for a rights issue with the finances in place should in fact the lockdown have got any worse, but it could come if they decided to expand further and make the most of other pubs/breweries businesses that are struggling and ripe for a takeover by them.
I agree, a very high chance of a rights issue. With the brewery now majority owned by an overseas company what is left but a pile of debt and a string of pubs, some scruffy, some mediocre and some OK, but certainly not undervalued in the accounts. What other choice is there ?
"Pubs packed this weekend" impossible because they cannot operate to previous capacity. At best 70% full. On top of that the current climate and looming recession will mean mean huge impact on profits. The deal with Carlsbeg simply means this new company will survive, it could soon mean a rights issue.
Deos, I have some at 62p, 54p and 47p, so yes hoping for a decent recovery to the 60s pretty soon. If we get get news on the Covid treatment trial or indeed some vaccine news then this will shoot up. Imho
In my portfolio I have a decent holding of a UK Covid play stock that will release their results at the end of July at some point. I am edging on the confident side that this will be big news and therefore I am heavily investing in Marstons as it has dropped so much. Also looking at first group, but might leave that till Monday’s played out. Again this is me being speculative and a bit of a gamble , but dyor and make your own mind up, but if this plays out like I expect, some bags to be made.
Any chance we could restrict this board to thoughts on MARS rather than scattergun predictions on everything from totally irrelevant stocks to inane predictions as to where the SP may or may not be in 2023, as if anyone knows where it will be end of 2020 ?