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Fireworks today... Back to 70p we go!!
Yes good and agree with you for once to have Peel Hunt on side is beneficial. I also can see if their rating in June and since then Online sales will have flourished and Pubs have reopened (although I am in favour of online sales at the moment I expect them to give an improved rating since June with the JV and all.
Perhaps is should not be returning to 120p that J.P.Morgan said previously. -Work that one out! nice little trickle up today you should be very please with that being shareholder. (but me thinks not!).
Peel Hunt appointed Joint Brokers for Marstons ely August.
Work it out???
Perhaps that would encourage all the day traders to actually buy some Marstons where the whole world and his dog know that the future lies with online home sales, particularly during a pandemic.
One only has look about you on this web site under the heading MARS BROKER RATINGS let me spell this out for those who cannot understand what is being said :-
09-Jun-20 Peel Hunt LLP Buy - 95.00 Reiteration
A very astute suggestion. TBH I'd not noticed the size of trades today (4.52 mill by 14.30) but someone is certainly being v active. Looking at funds who could be sellers, perhaps taking a view on a further closure of English pubs later this week as per media stories; Slater has 2%, a lot of them in his income fund, possible he bit the bullet? Otherwise it's NFU, very long term holders usually, or Staberdeen & M&G in UK other than nominee a/cs.
Whatever the reason, your post is wildly more informative for investors than remarks about petrol in asda, etc etc.
Thanks for drawing our attention to this high turnover.
I rest my case of Marstons. If you want variety of Marstons you can get it anywhere -you don't even have to leave your front door. Yes this unfair trader still rants on about the number of pubs.
Perhaps he does not go online? However if he wants to shop in Asda fine. No doubt he also fill sit car up with cheap fuel too. Never mind. I see many shares rising today as the fund Managers move in for the cheap stocks such as Marstons. Perhaps they can also see that as other Brewers fail they take more of the Market share and the JV will increase that further. The CAMRA brigade can take their push bikes back to Halfords as they can order all of their craft beers from home and more besides.
Been watching the buys/sells very closely this week as the CMA will make their announcement well before its made public. With over 1,000,000 shares being sold today in very close trades makes me think that RF has the answer already and selling now before he loses more. I know he bought at 150p but recoupling 900k from current shares would be a "better than nothing" value. Though his shares need to be declared they only need to be declared within 24hrs of purchase. This makes me nervous as these are the highest sells in 27 days not including the voting shares that occurred last few weeks. I know this is my LT but this makes me wonder who would sell at 42p without a public announcement? Thoughts
Trent careful you will accused of being a Non-shareholder. Hard to understand how a poster is allowed to get away with publishing inaccurate nonsense. Pity he does not concentrate on facts .
Amazon supply 100's if not 1000's of different beers from dozens of breweries. Anyone with their head screwed on would either collect or order from their local Supermarket for home delivery with the weekly shop, where prices are very competitive. For instance Hobgoblin Gold is regularly £1.25 and occassionaly cheaper. at ASDA
Classic collections by the box with a wide variety to try or the diabetic low carb (new beer) or the amber beers and if you pay by your credit card you get points off your bank. If a repeat order sometimes Amazon will give you a 5% discount too. Many of their beers for Marstons beers can be delivered for tomorrow.
This is one advantage they have over their competitors. Enjoy.
Why re-apply when they extended it or did you not check the actual website a few weeks back when they announced it???
Valid till Oct 2021 for those who want to actually claim a discount off them. Personally paying full price actually helps them out more in my eyes
Don't forget that discount cards expire at the end of this month, so need reordering. I've done mine just now. It's always good to have for when some sort of normality (whatever that might be) returns.
I am in profit with this share - many on here commenting do not even hold shares -even though they make out they do. If they did lets just say they would be a little bit more supportive. Now we know this from what I have taken the time to supply by links to the official web site. :-
Marstons have shown that their home sales are increasing. The trend is for drinkers to drink from home. They now serve large numbers of sale in supermarkets (I remember a time when you just could not get their beers). Now you can order even from the factory online, or Amazon or even ebay. They have a joint venture which in the face of it looks very interesting.(especially post Brexit). They have finds in place to not be bothered at all by a full lock down as they said so earlier in the year. We all await their sales figures and results of a JV proposal. In my mind a lot to look forward to. Many on here feel I should sell well I see my self buying more. So will the fund managers as they see this as one of the best opportunities to make some money for growth funds - not on a day by day basis but over a year or two. It is a shame we have so many short sighted day traders on here never mind we all look at things differently. Perhaps if the day traders were more concerned then they could leave this web page rather than trying to influence others who are more likely to listen where I have shown to myself over the years I am not often wrong. Everyone can make their own mind up I stick by my rating. I will feel very happy in a short time I am sure.
YoYo, in fairness do8erman did post IF...
It will go in the direction these AT's want to take it in the absence of volume. 40p seems to be the support but they may take it lower to close out the 2% shorts prior to the P1 CMA report. I think predicting prices at the moment is a complete waste of energy as we don't know what the end game is with this pandemic. We may have to live with it but confidence will return in the hospitality industry and the sp will follow.
Do8erman - Where do you get you rpreditction for the 30p? As an analyst myself and have worked in many roles analysing data sets you are not putting up or giving evidence of your argument. Show either my scale or trend that this will reach 30p or lower as some fool suggested 20p (some BS about Dow Jones adjusting). Don't be an armchair dealer if you cannot provide either L2 scales, projected transits or trajectory predictions. This board as lost momentum for support and has not become more of a b1tching board against one another.
I am with my brother and a holder and though only bought in Mar @29p, I do not for one instance think this will flop with the board we have and the vision long term. Yes we have debt but that's not debt that cannot be levelled out and the payment due imminently we can survive. Marstons like others in this sector are finding it hard but read their boards its not half as septic as this one.
Intersting points you make, especially how the 40p level seems to show resistance, something I've noticed myself & interested in.
WRT being misquoted by charger, I fear this is a peril of the board for all of us, he assures us he is still in profit but his post on Sep 9, when he was showing us all the size of his cojones, clearly states that his larger holding cost 41.994p and a smaller holding at just below that.
Happily no other poster bothered to join in this peculiar game but it might explain how these specific price predictions are arrived at.
Astute Investors are aware of the significant headwind the whole hospitailty sector is facing, not just Marstons but each and every Beer House, Motel chain, just read their recent reports. Some are more resilient than others due to low debt levels, foresight to raise funds earlier this year. MAB, Whitbread and Fullers are well placed to pick up distressed pub/motel outlets.
Just over a year ago it was clear MARS debt pile was becoming a concern, hence a virtual fire sale of PUBS to Admiral at a significant discount to Book value. If as seems likely the price Admiral payed was regarded as fair-value, what impact does that have on the Valuation of the retained properties? It is well known Commercial Properties are being re-valued downwards. Against this background it is reasonable to believe our estate is not worth what is currently stated within the accounts. By his very actions RF clearly accepts, otherwise he could be culpable of poor management.
Faced with an unmanageable debt level , clearly the arrival/approach from Carlsberg last November was a God-send, it offered some relief to an over-borrowed position. The JV agreement was thrashed out before the impact of COVID, which has changed the whole hospitality landscape.
It is an illusion to believe the actions of one and probably other, competitors, will add greatly to the benefit of others. It may have a minimal effect which will be spread across other providers not just MARS.
Speculation that the JV and other events stated, will enable MARS to increase staffing levels is pi in the sky. The very purpose of this and any JV agreement is to reduce costs, basically Human resources, which ultimately produces bigger margins.
The JV should be analysed in conjunction with the historic validated numbers and projected returns into the future.
In essence in return for £273m, in total, Marstons and Carlsberg will combine their various Breweries and Distribution facilties in a New Company CMBC ( Carlsberg Marstons Brewing Company). Marstons will retain it s Pubs and Motels.
Marstons will have a 40% share in CMBC, generated profits will be distributed pro rata. Have done the calculations previously and to retain the status quo, profits made by CMBC will need to grow by 22% in the 1st 5 years of the Agreement, for Marstons to just standstill on known values. Marstons Brewery profit growth has never exceeded 3%pa
Marstons intention is to pay down debt with the receipt from Carlsberg. The company then intends to focus on providing operational excellence within the pub and accommodation business ( retained assets). The company intended to spend £90m in the current year on capital items ( enhancements, new build ). The funding of a programme forwards is yet to be fleshed out, it is difficult to see it coming from profits........shareholders could be waiting some time for a return to the dividend list.
Currently the SP is under-pinned by the last published NAV , likely to be downgraded.
There is logic in what you say.
Can you however explain why you think it will hit the lows of March even though the situation is not as dire? Do you not believe that these concerns are priced in already? If it drops further, I think this may only be slight and very short lived before it reverses. There is far more hope now with COVID seemingly milder and vaccine in the picture and there is the JV element.
The biggest issue here is people in government who think that leadership means sounding sweet. Payback time will come soon and the masses as usual will have to pay for the meal they had.
S.C... In the face of 79 Greene King pub closures, 800 job losses, Scotland pub closures and the rest of the UK due to go into some sort of lockdown come next Monday - you are still saying that the SP is going to be 73-100p. Not me, don't misquote me please I haven't said its coming back to 70p, all I said is IF it goes to 28p-32p area then it has potential to recover - to what is unknown, but i'd expect to 45-48p should pubs and restaurants re-open after a lockdown period in the run up to Xmas - but at present its still very risky indeed, especially if covid goes on longer than expected, and pubs and venues stay closed indefinitely from next week. It all depends on your end game/how long you want to sit on these and your risk tolerance I suppose. If I was invested here and in profit, then I'd sell at 40p and get out Thursday, solely because I'm more risk adverse than some and profit is profit and I wouldn't want to risk losing any gains made, especially if I can then use those profits to buy back in lower and increase my holding if I were to still believe in the stocks recovery long term. Out of interest as you are still stating this is going to 73p-100p regardless of all the negative facts stacking up.. when exactly are you forecasting this SP for? next week, next month, next February, 5 years time?.. if you are going to put yourself out there and share your thoughts on where you think the SP is heading (quite specifically - 73p), please tell us all when. You have previously quoted these SP forecasts many times over the past few weeks/months, yet the SP is still struggling to go beyond 40p, and the rest of the week/next week is likely to see this slide further if logic and current sentiment be applied. I may be wrong and overly pessimistic, we'll see I guess. But, I am very interested to see what period of time you are talking about to see an increase of 83% in the SP from Wednesday, to your lower estimate of 73p and an increase of 150% to your 100p higher estimate, surely you have to agree that this sounds overly confident for any share in this sector inc. MARS for the foreseeable future.
Do8erman - I am still in profit here and will not be selling as I will have to watch my gains for the year. Whats the point anyay if as you have said it is to come back up to 70p? I am not in any rush. In fact if it does go down to 30p I will be buying some more. The only time I have to think about selling any shares is usually in the new year where if I do have any running a loss I can sell them to make the most of any other gains from annual sales. Fortunately this is not one of my largest holdings and I do not have to sell or raise money for income. The way my luck goes if the price was to fall as much as you have said I would not be fast enough to get back in when the price turns if I was to sell any. I will hold and top up as and when required. By the way I read yesterday the European commission were looking into ways and discussing if the time is right for finding a quicker way of fast tracking the Astra-Zeneca Oxbridge vaccine - so we may not be long before a life boat comes along for Europe. Also think about the fund managers they will see any further fall as a good longer term opportunity to buy some more for growth. However good luck with your own choices.
regardless of the cma decision, this will hit 30p before it hits 70p its just common sense, get out whilst you can and buy back in lower in 2-3 weeks time, nothing that is currently happening in this sector is helping MARS or others and there is only one way this SP will be heading short term. this wont help tomorrow will it...
Greene King to cut up to 800 jobs and shut 79 pubs and restaurants
neither will the announcement that ALL pubs and restaurants will be under tighter lockdown restrictions in scotland as of friday, with the central belt - i.e west coast to the east coast inc. glasgow and edinburgh will have to close entirely for however long nicola says - no end date in sight, and those outside the central belt will be allowed to serve alcohol outdoors only - in the rain and cold in mid october, thanks!. and then only for very limited hours, people will just not bother at all and stay at home.
couple this with N.I set to follow similar measures as scotland have imposed this weekend.
and the rest of the UK to have a new plan and restrictions in place in 5 days time, with a partial or complete lockdown of much of northern and central england inc. major towns and cities, manchester, newcastle, liverpool, leicester, nottingham, leeds etc.... how many MARS venues exactly will be closed indefinitely then?
greene king annouce 79 pubs to close with 800 jobs lost, will MARS follow suit with pub closures and job cuts - it's highly likely.
this is and remains a very high risk stock at present, come back next week if it drops significantly on the above news and further lockdown restrictions, then perhaps worth a punt on recovery from 28-32p range. DYOR
Agree Griffith. I can see a very shrewd move here by Ralph Findley to expand with exploring opportunities such as the JV which will help Marstons post Brexit. I can see what he is doing and it will work if passed. I also see the share price rising and expect it to be as I have said on many occasions on this board approx 73p (just above your forecast). However I also see this share going over £1 a share once a vaccine is out and available. It is good to see a fresh face on here and whereas other Companies are reducing staff if the JV is passed for Marstons actually see more staff being employed in Marstons establishments due to a greater wider variety of Beers/Lagers from the JV from the two founding Companies being Carlsberg and Marstons. If it works why should not other Brewers also join the JV Later & who knows perhaps this could be a way forward to save the industry?
I thought there would be some more hype leading into the CMA decision on the 20th, with this not being mentioned at all am I missing something here? I am hoping the CMA allows it to proceed and prices jumps according 60-70p range?
Thanks for the Scot Gov link but if you look under the heading in it, "central belt area", it is exactly as I said was, & still is, on BBC site.
However, as I said before, with only 22 (from MARS website) premises we have dodged the bullet on this one.
Nevertheless a post is worth nothing if it is inaccurate & incidentally the Central belt in Scotland has both a west & an East side.
Am very happy to converse on MARS but why must you always drift off the subject ?
Stick to Marstons & please try to be accurate. We use this board so we can all swap views, which need accurate facts.