We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Initial reaction, comparison with 2019, pre covid and pre-Brains, does not indicate the contribution from the Leased Welsh estate. Unless the Brain's estate contribution was zero, the figures are not so good.
Fixing of energy costs (gas) is good, although Electricity is volatile and subject to rises outside of projections. It is not clear if the energy costs apply to all Properties, Managed and Leased?
Most businesses enjoyed a VAT payment holiday during Covid when Tax levied was reduced to 8% ( now back at 20%). It is interesting to see the Deffered tax of £50m more or less taken from the agreed consideration from Carlsberg, which was part of the Brewery deal. Had expected that receipt to be used to pay down debt. Even though slow long debt is being reduced, marginally. Will be interesting to see how debt will be reduced to under £1billion by the end of FY end 2024.
Drink sales have bucked the trend ( MAB reported an opposing experience on both Food and drink sales)
Further reflection on these figures is ongoing.
As always DYOR.
I meant an uprate in the share price
Very happy with that. Should see a big update going forward. :)
Hi all.
Superb response to the narrowing losses of JDW. Considering that Marston's has been better run than JDW (e.g. no need for placings like JDW did in 2020) and has had more advantageous locations (not as high a % of city centre ones, which have been less profitable - I understand city centres the type of pubs JDW has been offloading), it is probable that the end of year results will read better than JDW's.
That probably explains today's rise, and I suspect that this will carry on until the results as traders / investors would probably expect (relatively) good news on 11 October.
Speculative buy.Debt very high over 1 billion but be honest I’ve not checked any terms of this yet.They seem to have made a good move fixing electric 2023 though mainly gas till 2025.It will all be down to how consumer confidence plays out and inflation interest rate rises don’t concern a huge amount of people as it finally gives them extra income to spend me included.I don’t see a rush to buy yet but am going to take closer look then add small position knowing this is a long turnaround also there maybe good news for pubs in budget.
At last some interest is shown in marstons,this is the second asset management company showing some interest this year,at least we have not been forgot ,
I thought there was no cap for business for electric and gas
£6.40 a pint ? its only £3 for san miguel in my local pub. That's in Manchester.
FD
Thanks for this, yes the Spoons announcement is very significant imo.
As you know I am in London & most pubs here are pretty dead, seemingly trade is dire.
I guess an ordinary pint at £6.40 can't help, even with the rise in interest rates we have just seen I believe those loans fixed by Findlay & co are still higher, though some have been paid down now I believe. Nevertheless a further facility up to £160m is welcome news but a bad half year could see that being eaten up.
On the bright side, at 35.5p the shares are little more than option money so for the brave yes, but much less potential loss than pre covid !
4th qtr report out today. In essence sales are marginally up on food sales, drink sales are flat,curiously the hot weather had the reverse effect to that normally expected with a good summer. Costs remain very challenging, energy costs are projected to double even with the welcomed announcement of the cap. MAB have £150m cash and further facility up to £160m. Costs are being controlled/reduced on a property by property basis.
The emphasis is hospitality are facing some exceptional headwinds over the next few months.
Weatherspoons are disposing of 32 city pubs., their SP is at a 10year low.
Marstons should announce quarterly report in the next 10 days.
Investors coming in now do have an opportunity, which is not risk free. A predator will look at the assets and liabilities.
The company does have a huge debt burden that will be factored into any offer. The way the Brain's deal was undertaken, in a hurry, leaves particular unknowns ( how and if the management agreement can be terminated) which could present some tricky financial settlements. We just do not know the finer details of the Brain Lease agreement which is for 20 years. Another unknown, which would need to be disclosed to a buyer, is how many freehold properties has the company sold and indeed how many do we retain, remember the agreement with Carlsberg requires the retention of at least 50% of Pubs as at the date of the Brewery JV.
A predator would almost certainly be an Asset Stripper, who will need to consider the factors stated and more in their due diligence.
Finally current economic uncertainty is/will create even more downside to property values.
The current SP will have it's attractions to gamblers. Good luck
AIMO
Prime for a take over bid at 0.3785 pence per share, based on the rejected take over of two years ago of £1.05. Before everyone jumps on my back,I totally understand different times , different days, but the opportunities of time reward all, providing you have the cash !!!!! Crazy times
Probably not clear......
I am at about 150% of what I have long term considered my core holding in MARS.
Now that I am retired, I have to be more conservative, so I have a pretty hard rule of no more than 2% in any single stock. Works pretty well although because of their run up SHEL and BP are well outside that at the moment - reluctant to correct that though as the Divi is so good.
sam you are a very brave man having over half you PF in one company. The challenges facing all hospitality groups cannot be dismissed. They are formidable especially those with highly geared borrowings.
MAB are due to release their quarterly figures on thursday, usually MARS follows within a week.
Hope your gamble pays off Sam
Not sure I have a clue what Govt are up to..... mind you not sure they do either.
Markets all a bit nervous but I think the "woe, woe, thrice woe" from the media is a bit overdone.
Similarly, this drop back feels overdone too, so I have added another 10K to average down a bit more. Over exposed now at 50%+ over long term holding, but I do feel this an opportunity. Holding price bobbing around about 5% below break even now. :(
Had an overnight stay in Bala, Wales recently and speaking to the locals it seems Marstons are closing down their establishment on the high street.
Probably a good move as they also have a Brains establishment on the same high street which is also a hotel offering very good food.
A takeover bid could arise any time soon , nett assets way above share price .Someone will be looking at this with interest in brewery and estate . Some pubs on very valuable land sites.
It takes 2 to 3 weeks to brew and condition a beer like pedigree. How can their demand signal to pump management be so bad that pubs have no beer for weeks.
I am not a true ale person myself SHAPERITE but I know what you mean about the Park Gate Inn. I have used it a few times yet have had to have bottled beers so go there rarely now.
The little Ale House has a good choice of ales in Bromsgrove. Terry will look after you but he doesn't have any Bathams as the waiting list to get it is about 20 years and even then you have to wait for someone to leave or fold.
Since then we have had a hot summer so perhaps that's partly the reason for some pubs running dry? last statement from Marstons included "Encouragingly, total retail sales in the Group’s managed and franchise pubs returned to FY2019
levels in the period. Drinks sales have continued to outperform food sales, once again reinforcing
the steadfast trading resilience of Marston’s predominantly community pub estate. " Could be a good time to buy as reported.
38000 shares
Park Gate, Kidderminster Road, For three succesive weeks Pedigree taps are dry !!! A n alien concoction called Wainwrights
is available, How can Marstons premium ale be unavailable in a Marstons house for at least three weeks ? The garbage that
is proffered by the company totally explains the collapse in the share price, as the effort put in by the B.O.D. is boardering upon incompetance - Bathams for me in future !!!!!
All meant in good taste! Suggest Elizabet ( a mature long lasting beer that was silently powerful) and King Charles ( a new found organic beer that has risen to fame) which hopefully will be with us for some time.
Given yesterday's tragic news of the passing of HMTQ. A sad day for all of us. I hope we are all muddling through as best we can.
For once, in a long time, I feel a bit better now with MARS. Having gone horribly over exposed at the end last month in a fit of pique, I have taken the some of the short term gains on my 36p and 37p buys and reverted to my long term core holding plus about 40%. More importantly my carrying price is now back in the black today...hurrah.
I only see upside from here in the medium term - bumps along the way I am sure. As always DYOR.