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@Majorboy. Very likely there is no magic bullet vaccine. Perhaps we get something like a flu-jab each year where it's more a hit-and-hope approach. Thankfully, as more and more data comes in Covid19 looks less and less deadly, with many of the most vunerable already having sadly succumbed in March/April. Even W.H.O is now voicing opposition to further lockdown. I think one way or another people will resume ordinary lives next year.
Buys outweighing sells - A proper tug of war going on, not surprising given 15 days till the real news hits. Upper end is optimistic unless he’s onto something. One thing is for certain, it’s stupid cheap at this level.
Redundances may be a dirty word, afraid it does indicate Management is protecting the Company and ultimately Shareholders interests. There will be worse to come when the Breweries Combine, admin, management, production and disitribution staff to be slimmed down. It is a survival of the fittest .
The estate was last valued externally in yr 2018. Last year(2019) Management applied certain triggers and revised the Valuation. The net being an increase of just over £24m ( assume this relates to New Build and aquisitions). It is to be expected yr just ended will show a further revision of Estate valuation, downwards, to take account of the Sale to Admiral.
Deferrment of tax is an interesting issue, even though mentioned there is no accounting provision stated. Alchohol Duty and VAT are significant numbers. It is assumed the retention of Tax has inflated overall trading returns. Have tried to nail down some comparable figures from last year's accounts but so far have eluded me.
The increase in off-sales is good and more than off-sets the decrease through Pubs where margins are considerably greater, Supermarkets may move quantity and aid cash-flow but margins are paper thin. It should also be remembered their (Supermarkets) trading terms can keep suppliers waiting some weeks before payment.
Trent I totally agree with you re lay offs, redundancies whatever, terrible to be on the receiving end of that, sadly though if the licensed premises are not allowed to open for a further period the company has no choice. With all the ramping which has been going on recently on this board I do trust that not many people took too much notice of the constant bullish SP predictions (73p was one which kept on being predicted), as it is never nice to hear of peoples losses, though in the market you inevitably win some & lose some which is why sober analysis is way better than wild predictions.
but all that does is ensures the new unit will be around, as opposed to the fact without it Marstons would be doomed. SP's rise on sales and profits, not on existence alone. Even with a Vaccine, expect poor summer results and the SP will have to reflect a poor Christmas trading period in 2021. As for this Christmas, dare I say anymore?
Just read a good majority of your posts on the varying boards you spread your negativeness and like this board, you are Mr doom and gloom. You mentioned the Dow Jones in a post a while back saying this will be 20p and some BS about the US markets sneeze we all suffer, with circuit breakers in place and stop trading tiers on each level this will prevent markets suffering like you think they will.
I read this many years back when I first started to purchase stocks and learn that everyone as an opinion but unless you base on fact its as much use as the newspaper we read whilst holding chips.
Yes, you raise some valid points that I hadn't thought of. Time will tell where all of this jumps. I just hope that they redeploy as many staff as they can, and keep redundancies to the absolute minimum. I don't really take any pleasure out of anyone being made redundant.
The announced redundancies seem to be making headline news from this latest report, completely overshadowing the Carlsberg JV. Personally, it seems like a great opportunity for those that missed out on capitalising before the previous JV announcement to make some real gains over the next 6 months. Just 41p right now.
I largely agree with your post, but what bothers me is what is NOT said, e.g. off sales up 23%, but what was the profit margin on that I wonder? Without pubs to service every brewer was surely offering attractive prices to supermarkets, let alone Amazon ? Turnover is great but profits are what we need. I see no guidance on margins. Debt down, great, but last time I looked at this debt the company were using derivative instruments which seemed to be expensive to pay off early so the company were unable to take much advantage of the low interest rates prevailing then & now. Hopefully there will be a guidance as to property values in the final accounts as that is surely critical to the value of our company. I guess we must expect to wait until their is some clarity as to what prices licensed premises are fetching before we see a full revaluation once the dust has finally settled? On the upside I think MARS have managed very well in lockdown with their cash flow & their like for like, both much better than I was fearing. I see no mention of the "bonus" that the PR lady mentioned in her final post we could expect in this update.
I suspect that my local Marstons will be one of the casualties. They have never done food so daytime trade has always been limited and profitable times appeared to be Friday and Saturday nights when it would be rammed which obviously no longer happens. I don't use the place these days as I don't like the beer but I had some of my first underage pints in there. It was not the police you had to watch for but school teachers. It caused difficulties bumping into your geography teacher in the toilets. Especially as in those days they still had corporal punishment in schools, you would spend the weekend wondering if you would get a call to report to the headmasters office on Monday morning. Happy days.
Greatcrested.......correct. The statement is nothing more than most expected and so far the Market is not impressed. Maybe wrong but on further digestion of this RNS, do'nt be surprised if the SP goes lower. The statement leaves many questions which will only become clearer once Yr end accounts are released in December. An item which should be of significance even though debt reduction has increased basiscally due to the sale of Pubs to Admiral, we are yet to know how the sale will reflect in the Estate value. One suspects on we know ( the Pubs were sold at a con siderable discount to Book value)