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I don't see any info about the nature of the holding - except that it's not shares, so it might not be the same level of exposure in the company.
Obviously on behalf of someone else but interesting none the less. Market hasn’t reacted yet.
Respect!
lejjb
Understood, thanks for the conversation, always good to hear a sensible & different perspective than ones own.
Just one more point: pubs are certainly not the healthiest sector right now (as most consumer retail businesses in the UK) but Marston's is in an odd position as its SP is treated as if we were still in the middle of the pandemic, pre-vaccine and pre- Carlsberg deal. And it was explicit that it had some of its energy deals fixed before everything went tits up until 2025. So while margins and demand will be affected by the current events, it is still in a healthy position vs other large pub chains (except maybe Young's that's surprisingly doing well) and its marcap is priced in as if it were still at substantial risk of going under due to Covid.
So it's not a screaming buy, the situation is more mixed but not fully bad. Thus I rely on TA even more here to give me some more basic guidance.
I rarely believe anyone who claims to be a pure chartist and still makes money, but charts are a useful tool amongst others to gauge sentiment.
I just don't overly rely on them and I try to be as exacting as possible with charts, i.e. I want very clear signals or I tend to exit my positions.
lejjb
Yes I get the downside protection bit which is probably much more effective than a simple stop loss.
I am just a bit cynical about reading too much into charts, they can be a great pointer or guide at times, providing one is aware that many people are coming to the same conclusion looking at a similar chart.
Sadly pubs & other hospitality shares have so many unexpecteds thrown at them currently, (labour shortage, power costs being just 2), that past performance as on charts has less relevance is what I'm really thinking.
I roughly ended up at break even (I use leveraged trading.) But my primary concern wasn't to make money on intraday or 1-3 day movements, it was to protect my capital. If that means I might get back in for a deal that's not as good, so be it, at least I aim to keep my losses in check first and foremost.
And TA (good one, so not most of what's posted on Twitter is utter rubbish) does have a some self-defeating aspect like you rightly pointed out: pros and algos tend to go for the strongest signal . So it's a balancing exercise. But one aspect that mirrors what you mention is that many people avoid mentioning their targets for that very reason - or many who do give vastly inflated ones. Or they have several intermediate targets, taking profits along the way.
Really ?
Has it made you any money, changing your mind on movements of less than the bid ask spread on the stock seems rather odd to me, & I suspect many others.
If TA was all you cracked it up to be you might find everyone was doing it, then it becomes self defeating.
Learn about serious TA, bother looking at the charts that I actually posted, read again what I’ve written and then see whether you’ll say the same thing.
When a pattern has been broken, you have to reassess your position. Better doing it asap before it gets too late to preserve one’s capital.
And note that I didn’t give a downwards target when I said « “mildly bearish”, because that bearishness was indeed only mild and the outcome not clear at all.
The large intraday swings of the SP are the reason for my subsequent re-reassessment.
lejjb
Please don't think I am cynical, but 8 days ago, stock was 39.64 & "going to low 80's", yesterday stock 37.12 "mildly bearish", today stock is 38.14 "looking good again".
Are you for real or just having a laugh ?
Serious question...
Pattern roughly back in play and broken through the oblique resistance again - the past 2-3 trading days were brutal.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NLlC6FEX/
We're also now above the volume shelf, the next one is in the high 40's, and the momentum indicators are all pointing up. Looking good again.
Pattern now broken, mildly bearish now.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CEKbHWYZ/
Low 80s within the next 2-3 months in my view based on the volume profile - the above chart starts from the day when the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine was announced.
Weekly chart suggests this is going to fly.....next serious resistance at 45
Dare I say anything on the trend at the moment? Has some momentum at present guys……
I get excited when the price goes up 3-4 points,then realise that 5-6 points in the other direction takes us back to covid levels when all pubs/clubs etc were closed,my problem is it needs to go up another 50 points for me to break even,,,happy halloween !!
I think out of the 9 Market brokers they consulted on their broker accounts 5 say strong buy, 4 Hold and only 1 sell and the red pointer is indicative of strong buy they advise the Mkt to hold? Errh tells me something this....it must be the time to buy some more!! GLA.
Doesn't look too great for the average 'middle class' consumer if Hunt cuts energy support to all but the most vulnerable people and businesses to months down from years.Along with new highs with fixed rate mortgages.
However, there must be some value inflection point somewhere that fund managers/private equity get interested.How low can she go?
I expect to quadruple my profits on this one- no one should be looking at this on a five minute by five minute basis. Perhaps consider taking out ones Oil share profits now as these will not last for ever!! Common sense dictates to me this Company has survived the worse and is coming out the other side. Many other cheap shares out there too, especially so to foreign investors where GBP is so low they can buy even cheaper. Likely take over target here too! DYOR!!
Wolf
Spot on, FD has a habit of calling this one right.
Over the past year the shares have fallen faster than the proverbial wh@res drawers, down 60% near enough.
Logically one would think that they are due a bounce but if it does it'll likely be a dead cat one.
Sadly, I can't FD.. nothing on the horizon to say otherwise for me. Wish there was.
Long term investors have had a bad deal? Since 2015 the SP has declined by over 75%. Even at the TO value, 105p, initial holders will have lost money on their initial capital outlay. OK they had the benefit of a generous dividend, but no more.
It comes back to some poor management decisions, Charles Wells deal, Brain's deal, panicked sale of pubs to Admiral, increased debt to fund these missions. The JV deal with Carlsberg was imo, forced upon the company who needed to reduce debt. It will not surprise me if Carlsberg take over the 40% share in CMBC, within the next year, because Marstons will require further funds .
As for EV charging, are we to believe Marstons will subsidise? Power costs are escalating, recharging sites are currently costing motorists the equivalent of Diesel transmission vehicles, around 17p/mile. Electricity may, may save the Planet but the effects on personal finance will increase exponentially, providing it can be generated.
We are coming into a World where the fittest will survive, not a pretty picture.
AIMO. Feel free to disagree.
When down 7-8% great time to buy. Just wish the Chancellor pulls his fingers out and here is a suggestion for growth. VAT cut and incentives for energy saving pub chains, and communities pubs (especially those laying on rechargeable facilities/ or electric delivery lorries, and / or where locals can turn down their home heating whilst out for a few beers!