Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Added another 5k Friday so in total got 35k invested , I personally think that even without a takeover we could hit 60 to 70p within 6 months so very happy to add when funds become available , perhaps things are changing in this sector as in my village the 3 pubs we have left are all sellouts for the rugby GLA
would be fantastic if Platinum did an aggressive takeover.
As a holder I support Platinum taking over, and happy to vote for them for anything north of 70's.
Reasons why an aggressive take over is both needed and can succeed.
The BoD should have taken the offer of 100 from Platinum last time.
A bear hug could work this time easily, publicly offer 60 to 70 a share and force the BoD to the table to close with an offer of 80.
Any investment company will be in this for the longer game (5 years +), as such they can spin the business round and asset strip to make a ton of money on the rising tide in the future.
Study the past records. Platinum had made 2 offers which RF and co conveniently kept from Shareholders. It was only the 3rd offer that saw the light of day and even then shareholders were not allowed to consider the offers.
Any predator will need to consider the baggage Marstons have accumulated...lease agreements with Brains ( the agreements are binding for 20 years), the JV with Carlsberg which has onerous conditions limiting sale of properties, and will need to consider the debt pile to be discharged. A predator will be looking for a hansome quick profit a likely value 20% below NAV would be tops. In the current commercial property market, interest will be very limited.
Now would be the perfect time for a bear hug takeover by Platinum Equity.
They could easy acquire the company now for less than 60 a shares (they offered 100 last time).
The BoD could be forced to take the offer will the share price is down here.
re-read the notice from Carlsberg-Marstons, they are only now putting up the prices in line with industry, they had held off for as long as possible, so they will be roughly the same costs as other breweries.
also the demographic that visits marstons pubs are asset rich and have maintained their pub visits.
With the spring summer share price rise comes the added 11-12% rise in the cost of cmbc food and drink ,could put a lot of potential off going out,profits might not be as good as hoped for,
Paying back loans is actually bad for the finance sector, they make money from rolling debt.
Considering Marstons owns 40% of Carlsberg Marston partnership, and owns £2b worth of property, getting cheap refinance will be easy against their assets, with banks in China and US able to loan cash to undercut BNP easily.
Also we are now seeing the Carlsberg Marston partnership develop cost reductions.
So expect profit margins across the pub estate and brewery to increase over time.
Come on Karl. If I owed you £1000, you would not be bothered?
Pershap BNP Paribas would be interested in your dismissal of the debt, paricularly as Loan Agreements have been breached, not once but at least twice.
Debt is debt however it is wrapped up and cannot be dismissed so casually especially when Loans, long and short are not being maintained.
Do those who wish a buy out, expect that Predator too ignore the total debt? I think not as Loan Note holders have rigid conditions in place. Indeed wait to see what revised conditions are agreed after 31st March. Banks hold the whip hand.
Trying to massage numbers to influence and support an imaginary NAV is sheer nonsense.
@Fairtrader, the debt is a non issue, do you understand debt commitments?
from: find-and-update.company-information.service .gov .uk/ company/00031461/filing-history
Page 143 of borrowings: £1b of the debt does not mature for another 5 years!
Actual debt that Marston's have commitments to over the next 2 years is only circa £320m
I have a full copy of the accounts. SUGGEST YOU READ PAGES 134, ITEM11 AND pAGE 142. BORROWINGS.
The numbers are easy to understand and talk of the NAV being multiplies of the current SP is at best wishful thinking on the part of the scribe, at worst pure deceit.
Devising rhetoric to support a Trading position may suit some but will not convince experienced Investors who have been here for a number of years and know full well the historic financials.
Read "MARSTON’S PLC RESULTS FOR THE 52 WEEKS ENDED 1 OCTOBER 2022".
go to : marstonspubs .co. uk /docs /financials/2022/prelim-year-end-2022.pdf
• Final 10 weeks of FY2022 like-for-like sales were +3% vs. 2019 and +4% vs. 2021
• Increase in pub operating profit: £115.4 million (FY2021: £5.7 million)
• Improved share of CMBC’s profits: £3.3m (FY2021: loss of £(14.5) million)
Positive cash generation, debt reduction and NAV increase:
• £26 million net cash inflow from operating activities; underlying net cash inflow (excluding one-offs) of
£48 million
• Continued progress with debt reduction strategy: net debt (excluding IFRS 16) reduced by £16 million
to £1,216 million (2021: £1,232 million) despite the one-off £22 million net outflows.
• Property value £2.1 billion, representing an increase of £93.4 million vs. 2021
• Net asset value (NAV) per share increased by c.60% from £0.64 to £1.02 since October 2021
• £9.9 million generated from non-core disposals; disposals 40% ahead of net book value.
Marstons are worth multiples of the current MCAP!
To be correct stated assets is £2.1b and liablities(borrowings etc) amount to £1.65b. Net asset is £450m.
Debt has risen in the last 3 years even though disposals have taken place and a consideration of more or less £270m, was received from Carlsberg as part of the JV agreement.
A potential predator, having done due diligence, will become aware Marstons or it's successor is required to retain at least 50% of it's Pubs/Hostelries as agreed in the JV with Carlsberg. Unless a predator can persaude Carlsberg to relinquish/revise, this JV condition, it is difficult to see a significant offer along the lines being touted.
the major of business are debt laden at the moment, with covid making it worst for a lot of businesses.
however, given that the valuation of marstons based on assets minus debts is around £2b, there is a lot of potential up side here.
Considering the business is recovering and paying off the debt they are in a strong position.
I hope another takeover bid comes for around £1.5b this time and gets accepted.
It's definitely not a dog considering that its business has mostly recovered from Covid and even achieved operational improvements vs its state in 2019.
However, throwing around dividend suggestions for the near term, especially numbers from 2006, borders on the insane (or desperation to get the SP to rise). Right now Marston's is (rightly) focusing on paying off its debt.
I totally agree, this is a dog with that huge debt...
Back to low 30s anyway now.
Rainbow Chasers Unite!!
The dividend was last payed for yr ending September 2019 before COVID. The dividend was suspended because of the Company's diminishing free cash. Company debt in 2019 was £1.4B at which time disposals were taking place to, in the words of Ralph Findlay, reduce debt by £200m by 2023. We are in 2023 and even allowing for Covid, debt is now £1.65b. The JV with Carlsberg was supposed to have released cash to help reduce debt. Where has it gone?
The restitution of the dividend requires agreement of Bondholders as a condition applied to agree Waivers. Dividend return will not happen any time soon, Bondholders have agreed for a 2nd time, waivers until 31st March when it can be reasonably certain a further revision of Loan Agreements will occur. That may involve interest rates. BNP Paribas now have control of the Major Loans and are harder nosed than HSBC.
Talk of a 10 bagger is pure Cuckoo, the SP's high of just over 170p occured in 2016.A long way to go to get back to that high point.
Traders(rampers) can say what they will to achieve a capital gain before the end of March, experienced investors need to examine the real facts and then act.
Improved guidance from Marstons:
16-week period to 21 January 2023 were +12.9% vs. FY2022.
Total retail sales up 14.0% on last year and up 7.3% vs FY2020.
40% of the Carlberg Marstons partnership worth circa £500m
The property estate is worth circa £2b.
Great dividend share ready for reinstatement.
The dividend was only stopped due to covid, so expect it to come back soon.
The dividend in 27 Dec 2006 of 28.23p would almost pay for the share at the moment!
The previous 11 Dividend payments equal 38.7, more than the current price for the share:
Interim 2.7 23/05/19
Final 4.8 14/12/18
Interim 2.7 24/05/18
Final 4.8 15/12/17
Interim 2.7 25/05/17
Final 4.7 15/12/16
Interim 2.6 26/05/16
Final 4.5 17/12/15
Interim 2.5 28/05/15
Final 4.3 18/12/14
Interim 2.4 28/05/14
DYOR GLA
Based on their last report and looking at this coming year things look very good for Marstons:
Like-for-like sales for the 16-week period to 21 January 2023 were +12.9% vs. FY2022.
Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs were up 14.0% on last year and up 7.3% vs FY2020.
The Group's electricity costs hedged until the end of September 2023, with no change to earnings guidance.
The Group's gas price is fixed until the end of March 2025 with no additional incremental spend anticipated.
Andrew Andrea, CEO, commented:
"Whilst we still have certain cost challenges to navigate in 2023, we are well-positioned to continue to progress our strategy and are encouraged by the level of consumer resilience experienced to date.....
Marston's pub estate is well-invested, and our geography and proposition lends itself to benefit from underlying consumer trends. Whilst still early in the New Year, trading momentum continues to build, and our primary focus remains to meet our strategic goals of achieving £1 billion sales"
Your only looking at past figures.
I prefer to work on rolling figures from analysts.
the estate properties are worth £2b
the pub business is making £40m a year net profit
Marstons own 40% of the Carlsberg Marston partnership worth about £500m
Current debt is actually £1,216 million (see Preliminary Results for 52 weeks ended 1 Oct 2022 RNS)
Taking into account debt they still have a valuation of around £2b.
£2b / 660m shares = £3 per share.
Net profit actually expected to be 38 million.
And net debt an eye watering 1,800 million.
Yes they have 2,500 million in assets, but buy the time they have paid the tax bill they will have nothing...
One to watch for sure, but that's about it.
expect a great rise in price on the way to the summer:
£2b property portfolio
Pub Revenue: £799.6 million = Profit: £115.4 m
40% of Carlsberg Marston brewery with a potential £500m/annual = £200m
rough potential valuation: £3b
660m shares = £4.50 (ish) a share
so 1000% upside from here, lol
DYOR GLA
Bebold - good idea I have been doing the same. Have a larger number now than I did have. The trade has been coming back and with less going abroad likely to continue to show increasing sales over previous numbers. What with post pandemic sports in full swing with Football supporters in our pubs, as well as Rugby fans. The World post pandemic is now a different place and the entertainment stocks show a great opportunity after being hit so low. Marston will benefit from increasing home sales too and economy of scale with the Carlsberg partnership and no problems dealing in the EU. The brains pubs have been a bonus and a useful addition to give a wider audience across the UK. I understand sales are also increasing Worldwide with a growing taste for good quality beer. I see Brewdog also moving into the China market with an announcement today.
Shame the same £200 voucher hunters just keep their boring negativity going every time they enter their words despite no one listening to them as their always has the same drone lacking in substance or fact! GLA.
Next update will be downbeat, pubs from Dec 31st are empty for 2 months. Time to buy then if you have faith for the future here..