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Traditional hops varieties, Fuggles and Goldings , have been in decline for at least 40 years, mainly because of their management. These varieties are particularly prone to disease, especially mildew which does have a devastating effect on production. Hence many of the traditional Hop Yards where massively expensive pole and wire-work were once seen throughout Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Kent, have been replaced with dwarf hops which as the term conveys are easier to manage, the wire work is only 2 metres high whereas the Older Yards had structures often 5-6 metres high.
These newer varieties have been bred at East Malling in Kent, a one time Government Research Station.
There is a wide range of new varieties most with differing characteristics for aroma, flavour , disease resistance etc. These varieties have genetic material derived from Fuggles and Goldings, which in turn were discovered from wild stocks in the 1700's. There are still a few yards growing fuggles and Goldings, which tend to find there way to local Brewers.
If as suggested hops will become difficult to source in a couple of years( something I doubt), New Zealand has a thriving hop growing industry around Nelson, which could and does supply dried hops to Europe. We are not dependant on the EU for hops.
Dried hops can be stored for sometime providing they are kept at low humidity and free of pests. The problem for growers is storage. Hops are very bulky.
Paul Corbett, managing director of the Charles Faram hop farm in Worcestershire and the biggest supplier of British hops to UK breweries, said that unless the breweries step up their orders this year – or the Government buys surplus stock – “there will be a huge drop in production”.
“In two years’ time we could be looking at a big shortage of the British hops that go into traditional British beer. This could change the flavour of some of our best-loved ales and even cause some to disappear altogether.”
Tom Stainer, head of the Campaign for Real Ale, said: “If British brewers are forced to increasingly rely on imported hops, not only does it take cash out of our local and national economies, but it risks losing classic British hop varieties for ever and ultimately could see beer lovers having to pay more for their pints.”
Trust Boris!!, staycation for Brits next year, won't be able to brew enough beer to meet the demand, especially as all EU brews will be heavily taxed. What a bonanza for UK Brewers! These could be the words of Tesla man a few weeks ago. It seems his car's memory has gone into critical malfunction mode, like the owner.
share is being pumped before the dump, market crash will happen on no deal.
is this "Tinder" app available for my Nokia 3210? I am looking forward to seeing the Berkshires, Middle White's, British Lop (very filthy type) & the very accommodating Gloucester Spots. I guess it will save me going to my local cattle market this new app. I think I'm happy to stay in some crappy pub drinking a nice ale and chatting to a local face to face whilst maintaining eye contact, something that these snowflakes struggle with. I guess the 30p spiral wont be this side of xmas.
Enjoy your banging fiesta.......
umm.. stay at home while high and getting banged to 2 guys and 2 girls.
or sit in some crappy pub paying over the odds for naff beer.
Do you mean phone Tinder and get the Service delivered to your home address, like Deleveroo, get some wacky backy and forget about Covid and disappear into a magical orgasmic World. Your'e right Breweries will be redundant!!
It must be Christmas, a time of Fairy Tales.
broadly look at the change of society:
Tinder = dont need to go out to meet someone
Streaming TV = dont need the pub for sports
Games Consoles = another reason to stay in an game
Why spend £10 on 2 pints when you can have 4 days of smoke?
Absolute p1sh! if you know anything about cannabis you will know that those who partake in cannabis do not drink alcohol due to the side affects it has on them. Perhaps do some basic simple research before coming up with utter nonsense like the other waste of oxygen he is SuperDud (unless you in the both carehome)? Amsterdam is a prime example of how they both work together rather than compete. Why would it cause an issue? Be verbose rather than leave drip fed bile on the board.
I suspect like the other posts you are here to deramp etc etc
I did read your previous posts and they made comparable reading but this is utter tosh as is that MARS is dead. I suspect you are not a holder?
another issue in the pipeline for this business.
currently very little going for this share apart from alcoholic brits and a brand name
"For those who missed my comments last Monday. I see this as a great future buying potential when back down at 30p, although the money earn't from the Brewing business sales will or has already been eroded or accounted for now I am sure."
bingo, down we go merry on our way
For those who missed my comments last Monday. I see this as a great future buying potential when back down at 30p, although the money earn't from the Brewing business sales will or has already been eroded or accounted for now I am sure. I regret in this market one has to change their view by the day on all shares and it pays to be active. It also pays to see the obvious at the time. Regret not everyone sees things the same way as me. My Mondays post was as ever very honest and reliable which I hope some found beneficial for a balanced opinion. Those same people will now be in a better position to come back in later I am sure for Monday it was said :-
Do you really need to ask what the earnings report will be? Marstons only now own 40% of the main income provider of the moment the year with the off sales and Carlsberg will not have been able to make up with their own sales with the 60% lost.
On the pub side they have even needed to ask for extra time to pay off their loan side and leaseholders which answers itself.
I would not be led by three regulars on here that only talk up the share to release their own (if they even hold any shares) but they may have options?
I am no longer a holder here having sold out some time ago. I will come back but not at this price. There is no harm in taking ones profits now and re-investing later when the Brexit picture is clearer. As always make your own decisions which is why this opinion is my own for the benefit of those who want an independent opinion - as ever your own call for a balanced portfolio- do not put all of your Scotch eggs in one basket - wait for a substantial meal to feast on!
Long term this will be okay, short term combined with Covid and Brexit, this is going to be brutal for the next year.
so either wait for the price to bottom out to buy cheap, or be willing to hold for a long time
The notes on Going Concern make stark reading and empahasies the fragility the company has should further Loan Waivers be required. The BOD admit the uncertainty, should trading condition not improve as expected, Lenders may well not allow further Waivers! Stark reading indeed.
Yeah, towards the 40s for till the end of 2021 potentially
The Joint-venture Has most definitely save Marstons here from a worse situation I think may take a while for these to get back to a pound unless of course is a takeover offer
Are Massively down at the moment probably 90 to 95%. We went into a pub near Basingstoke for a meal Sunday and there was maybe 10 tables in use and they normally fill all the pubs that are doing small meals on the side to sell beer are probably doing very well on the food side of things
Most pubs start advertising Christmas around august bank holiday, in the current climate I don’t know if there would be many people booking at that time - the Christmas booking/refunds part is probably not as substantial as I first insinuated.
Dad the reduction in the current year relates to the reciept from Carlsberg (£233m) on 30th October. The figure released today are for year end 30Th September.
Daave the 3-4m is per week. The reduction in Pub Numbers assumes they are under performing and we must now be approaching Core performing Pubs, although this is debatable considering the timeline involved with the COVID restrictions and every possibilty it is going to continue into the Spring.
Daave you will know better than most, how many booking would have been made and deposited before 30th September, yr end? If as you suggest deposits were made pre 30th September, they will be included in these figures. Is the amount likely to be significant?
We can paw over these accounts and pick out positives, negatives and come to different conclusions.
Digging into to full report does reveal some threats, would we expect the company to be anything but positive?
The residual debt position is worse than I expected. Ok Goodwill has been fully discounted and will probably be revalued for the next set of figures. I always have concerns about Goodwill values, almost like thinking of a number and doubling it? That is probably a cynical way to view Goodwill but trust the meaning gets across.
Dept to reduce from £1633 billion to £1.4 billion that’s still more than 1 million per pub !!
I guess they are as expected but it's a very big loss of £397m.
One thing though, the small drop in SP today doesn’t seem to be related to the RNS data - the entire sector seems to be down by similar %
They sold 170 pubs in 2019 to put the money towards paying off debt, debts at 1.3 billion last year and 1.6 billion now, they already had 200 million from the JV which was already meant to have been applied to the debt
Sales to date this year are down by a large percentage - covids fault. Simple game of waiting for recovery, vaccine news is good but the timeframes?
Are pubs going to be open in tier 2 over Xmas? At what cost? Tier 2 costs nearly full overheads for a lot less than ‘usual’ trade.
Does that cashflow include any deposits taken for Christmas Day/week bookings? - will those be going ahead of the current tiers don’t change?
Although it looks positive for the future - has the JV already been priced in at 70p?
Deciphering the whole document is way beyond my capabilities- but the bits that stick out for me aren’t particularly positive I’m afraid.
I think the SP is probably about right - we are going to need the government to remove a lot of restrictions before Christmas to get any substantial trade over Christmas, there’s not much new information in this document, some confirmation on a couple of things that people would be assuming.
Cash burn at 3-4 million (was that a month or a week I can’t remember) - the tier change on the 16th needs to allow more pubs to open straight away.. 780 pubs currently closed!
I’m sure someone will do a breakdown better than I have the ability to soon.
A lot of numbers to consider, 2 items which standout to me...net debt £1.633billion ( will reduce in current year when the JV consideration is credited and debt on the numbers quoted will be around £1.4billion).
NAV per share drastically reduced to 50p ( was 72p last year), admitted impairments have had a dramatic effect especially the full removal of Goodwill. The company expects the NAV to increase in FY21 , by 48p, i.e to more or less 98p. This will be due to the inclusion of Carlsberg funds and some restitution of Goodwill value.
There is a lot to consider, how ever as Daave remarks positive bullet points, ambitious????