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Don't agree. Look at other company's in the sector. How many are at or just above historic lows?
Giant.... you may be a trader looking for a quick buck, the fact remains, scepticism does exist amongst seasoned/experienced investors who would be licking their lips too achieve a 200-300% increase.
A Asset-stripper would see the enormous potential here, if the figures ( assets and liablities) are to be relied upon.
The question remains, if as you assert the SP is at the bottom, are VC's not plunging in?
I would say MMs have little choice but to take this up. It's in oversold territory and any positivity in the upcoming trading update in July could send this to around 50p in no time.
There's no reason to believe the market is skeptical about the nav. You're the one making that connection. A low share price isn't evidence of skeptism around the company's figures. It isn't evidence of anything. Many shares are currently at or near historical lows right now. And it's due mainly to the general climate - emerging from covid, inflation, interest rates, the war in Ukraine etc.
Clearly the Market is sceptical about the NAV. There are many Venture Capitalists who would jump at a potential doubling even trebling of their investment.
The question is why are they not taking this opportunity ?
There is a raft of reasons. Can the estate valuation be relied upon? Remember prior to Covid, the BOD conducted it's own in-house valuation which subsequently had to be downgraded. Last year saw, for the first time, external valuation of 1/3 of the estate. A realistic guide to valuation will be shown when the draft of PUBs with Christie's, are sold.
Any valuation regarding the 40% share of CMBC is academic as there is only one buyer. Carlsberg call the shots!!
Backs up my expectations that next months trading update will be a positive one.
Nav = total assets - total liabilities
Nav per share is 96p
Shares in issue = 660,400,000
Shares in issue X nav per share = £634m NAV
Put another way, total assets is around £634m more than total debt. And yet market cap is just £180m
Nav is around 3.5 times greater than market cap
You don't understand what insider trading is:
"Insider trading is the trading of a public company's stock or other securities (such as bonds or stock options) based on material, nonpublic information about the company. In various countries, some kinds of trading based on insider information is illegal. "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider_trading
Have you heard of that little thing called "debt"?...
BRITISH brewer and pub owner Marston's plans to tie up with Carlsberg UK to create a joint venture worth £780million.
Marston's own 40% of the joint venture which would be around £312m
Property value stated recently as £2.1 billion, representing an increase of £93.4 million
All that versus a market cap of just £179m - whichever way you look at it, 28p a share is massively undervalued. This should be north of £1
https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11686551/marstons-merge-carlsberg-780-million-deal/
Lejjb,,The last time the 3 offers were put in to buy marstons and three times rejected it was kept secret,no one on this site knew or was told about it,could that be classed as "insider trading",??
It can still be taken as a vote of confidence in the company that an insider is buying. There are no laws against insiders buying stock in their own company as long as they notify the market within 2 days of the transaction, usually an RNS.
That would be insider trading, so no.
Quite a few directors buying up shares just recently,have they heard or know somethings imminent ???
Barchild "WRT the mcap & brewery valuation, to most peoples minds is the valuation of the freehold estate fair or not"
Sorry but that's complete nonsense. Mcap is never a reliable valuation of a company. Anyone who knows anything about investment would tell you that. You lost some respect points there my friend. Mcap is perhaps the least reliable indicator of what a company is worth - "in the short term, the market is a voting machine, in the long run it is a weighing machine" - Ben Graham. You don't value a company judging by sentiment/how the market is reacting to the stock. The intelligent investor is quite a complex book to read (I have a copy) but I can assure you nowhere in that book does buffett or graham advise taking mcap as a reliable indicator of what the company is worth - complete the opposite infact. The advise is that the best opportunities are often taking advantage of market valuations that have become detached from reality, oversold, unloved stocks that are way cheaper than what the true value suggests.
NAV is 96, and the last takeover offer was 106, so 27 is a bargain, with a potential for 200% profit.
Plus 40% holding in Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company, with dividends of £19.4 million received in 2022.
glad to be buying and holding, and once payday lands with be buying more.
Not surprised (so have I) the share is cheap when the latest accountants report says what the share price NPV is (I need reminding but was that 96p?) So an offer of £1.06 was not much of a premium on the accountants valuation. Goodwill will have a value on a Company that has been running for over 100 years too!
As less competition is out there now too the value of survivors such as Marston will go up in time, as sales improve and the Management already know this. GLA.
CEO is buying more shares.
Both he and the CFO keep buy which is a great sign that they see value in the share and put their own money in
Shape
I agree with you, the real fear here is interest rates and despite posters saying they won't be high for long rates always tend to stay higher for longer in every cycle, what's worse is they are almost certainly not at their peak yet.
The other issue is the Pub itself, younger people often prefer recrational substances (if you want to get stoned these are way cheaper than alcohol today) or also many are now totally teetotal. So are pubs ex growth ?
They certainly appear to be in large parts of the country, if this spread to MARS country it's hasta la vista.
Against this the SP is so battered down here they are option money, if I were a shorter which I'm not but I often was before retirement from the market, I'd be scared to go short here just on the upside downside risk.
When I was first involved with this stock it was so comfortably ensconced in the FT250 that nobody would dream that one day it would be out but that is where we are today, relying on hope & charity, (I suspect more hope than charity from this board)...
Inflation appears to be settling down lower short term, no one knows if that will continue. However most expect a peak soon if it has not already been found. With lower inflation comes lower rates and this will help growth.
Funny thing is with Alcohol sales when people feel depressed they can relax or some would say drown their sorrows to relieve stress. So for pubs when people feel down the Alcohol sales could increase. Everyone can have their own opinion but even my man from the Pru said if you do not take risk you will not make money. Speculate to accumulate. Sometimes one has to wait for a while for an asset to be worth more. I see a good opportunity here but every investment can have risk, so one could have a spread over a range. Good luck all whatever your choice.
Barchid,
I feel that I am on a solo crusade with my arguments , there are so many contributors expressing their thoughts that this is a potential goldmine at current prices, i,e, Ripe for a takeover, warmer weather encourages more drinking , the assets more than cover the debts etc. The solid facts are that Mars is over endebted in this economic climate and these debts have to be serviced on a regular basis in Hard CASH ! What I am saying I suppose is that it is a case of The Kings New Clothes - Anyway I appreciate your tacit support and basically agree with most you post !
Market manipulation is literally a fundamental part of the stock market.
only a fool would believe that the stock market is not manipulated in some way.
read up on Black Wednesday (or the 1992 sterling crisis), funds set up a way to make lots of money by specifically trashing Pound.
the stock market is run by criminals that went to eton and oxbridge.
marstons are a good bet, as the next stage of mass migration into the UK is turning the new arrivals in to alcohol drinking, gambling, credit card using cash cows.
Chat forums always obsessed about market manipulation!
Writing this the live price is 26.85/27p so the mid price is under 27p.
This really is down to option levels, I'm not sure how much more bad news is needed to bring the price down further but for punters who play options this stock must start to be appealing.
By the same token for genuine shareholders it signals more volatility, the big risk being the banks who fund the company and property valuations on the downside and an opportunistic cut price bid to put shareholders out of their misery on the upside.
Frankly I don't have a view which is more likely but down here more volatility seems a near certainty.
This uncertainty must be dreadful for their employees, I wish them well, they could easily be the biggest losers here, let us hope not, for their sakes.
Marstons are a solid business, could see a takeover offer based on the current MCAP, and any large buys land this will bounce up fast.
great time to buy and hold for gold.
They should have taken 106p. 50 would be ok though. mess up my share save though. hmmm.