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Its looks to me as if we have one or two unfair traders here in favour of Crooked pubs. One who always has a negative view they stay negative. This also depends in whether one actually hold shares in the Company or wishes to come back at a cheaper price. If the Company is that bad go elsewhere -why get pleasure from such negativity why not make suggestions if one is so clever! However for me one needs to read and analyse the actual words said from the Company itself.
The Company said it is hoping to increase its sales to over £2billion in four years. The Company is making money to reduce its debt. The Company also has enough to continue investing in its Premises with new popular garden rooms and outdoor areas being added and updated to further increase sales - which has been a success. It has also found franchise arrangements have been very successful and this will be further rolled out. The premises recently sold were all above the value on the Companies books. One unfair trader mentioned he had seen premises empty well if they were loss making that is why. Sometimes owners as well as Developers will seek planning permission with a change of use or will build properties which actually makes perfect business sense increase property values. I did the same thing with some property I inherited and built five houses. September temperatures have reached record highs and the last releases from the Company have said this helps sales in the Establishments, well lets not forget home sales whether from the establishments or down the supermarket! If the Company has over 1400 Venues why are we worried about 2 or 3 that are closed that would have been open it they were profit making. No doubt for the old Crooked house that was sold if it had been a real profit making pub it would have been retained. When one buys a house do they ask an accountant for a value or a qualified Surveyor who uses local charts and not national charts and is someone who looks at local prices recently sold and seeking by estate agents. Everyone believes what they want to but I believe the statements are statements of fact from the board, and if not the Board will be legally liable for misstatement -so I trust them! To me the Company is well run and coming back fast (four years or more is nothing for a Company with a long Pedigree) & well over 100yrs off good will.
Fair dealer. Just a point of clarification please. Do you happen to know where we are re the valuation cycle? There is the statutory valuation every few years and the yearly? Many years ago I was a District valuer and shall I say politely that my then valuations were perhaps a little different to the values by some well known names in the business. All I would say (so not to upset some former collegues) that the yearly valuations untimatley they are not a cut and paste into the accounts! Not for the first time now I have been retired I have been able to challenge at an AGM of the company with the noirmal result being a shut down of the subject in public followed by an instant invitation for a chat with a senior director beginning "How come you seem to know a lot about this?" My final point I would wish to make is that after a full and frank conversation In more than one case it has resulted in a change in the property valuation in next years accounts thus a change in the value of the Company.
My last point is that Property when it perhaps seen as secondary to the main businesss of any company can be over looked. If mangaged well it does effect many things including taxation. loans and dare I say it image etc of any Company all of which efects us as shareholders. Just looking at the bottom line never tells the full story.
Wagamama owner The Restaurant Group has increased its full-year profit expectations in light of strong sales growth at its outlets, defying a gloomy picture for the UK casual-dining sector.
TRG, which has been under pressure from a group of activist investors over its languishing share price, said its revenues in the six months to July 2 were up 10 per cent year on year at £467.4mn and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation stood at £36.3mn, an increase of 15 per cent on last year.
The group, which also owns the Brunning & Price pub chain and Italian-American diner Frankie & Benny’s, said on Wednesday that the stronger than expected trading performance supported a “moderate increase” to full-year expectations for adjusted earnings.
Source:
https://www.ft.com/content/613f96b1-d8f4-43e8-829e-1dd91d04ec55
Robcodsall - your points are correct except for your suggestion that banks will become impatient. It’s not usually the case: so long as the borrower meets its payments deadlines, a bank is fine with a long-term loan repayment scheme as it means the bank keeps getting a steady income.
Be patient or a Patient in a secure hospital?
some her have nothing on Hans Christian Anderson.
Valuation are undertaken by RICS registered Survey Valuers NOT Accountants.
The belated summer is due to end on Sunday, so get to the Pubs 24/7.
Investors should not forget production cost of beer have risen considerably.
As for the sale of dormant/empty Pubs, any developer will think twice as many pubs require serious reconstruction/modification. Just look at the Crooked House saga!
I have passed 2 Marstons Pubs just off the A5, they have been boarded up for almost 2 years. Not a good investment for any would be developer in the current market.
Back to Griimms Fairy Tales!!!!
You can't say that a billion pounds of debt is reduced by £100 million in real terms thanks to 10% inflation without taking into account the amount added to the debt in interest payments, which at around 6% would be £60 million. It will take Marstons decades at their current rate of progress, to reduce their debt significantly and maybe the banks won't want to have to wait that long.
Quarterly trading statements are the norm for medium - large retail entities. It is not a good or bad thing there is such a trading statement due in September, Marstons is just following the norm.
I will look forward to the trading statement 11 days after the close of the 52 weeks. We can then see what is said and how it affects the share performance. Until then no one can say how good or bad the business has done. Also it will be good to see if any other items have come to light which the company is obliged to mention. The fact that the Company is issuing a statement so soon after the fiscal year end is a good thing in my mind. We will then after be able to access the share price. IMHO. DYOR.
...Hence my referring to the 5 December preliminary (i.e. unaudited) results - from the page that I put in my earlier post, and from which you lifted the dates.
Supercharger: No.
The last trading statement did NOT include profit . Just sales / equivalent.
The last week of trading has been strange.
Looks like the MM are doing everything they can to drag it down and eat up all the free shares.
Usually this is a great indicator they the are expecting great results.
Trading update out on the 11th October, so could see a fast re-rate back to the 60's based on NAV and other costing factors.
Lejb -think you will find that is not the case. The Company web is stating Fiscal yr end for the 52 weeks is 30/9/23 and they will be making a trading statement 11 days later! See extract from the "official comp web site" appears Morning Star have not updated their records for the Stock mkt but brokers are aware.
Investor dates
Trading Update: 26 July 2023
Trading Update: 11 October 2023
Preliminary Results: 5 December 2023
Annual General Meeting: January 2024
The only thing that MIGHT make the SP move is when actual profit figures are released - which will probably only be at the next set of unaudited results of 5 December.
https://www.marstonspubs.co.uk/investors/
Until then, more sales figures with no idea of how much money actually stays in Marston's coffers to pay its debt obligations at inflated interest rates vs the original rates pre-Covid when money was practically free.
Time to shut shop and sell to a property developer to bulldoze the whole pub estate and build social housing and flats.
Just bear in mind Dealers when short of stock lower share prices - so as to make people feel they should sell. Unfortunately they know people will sell when a share price falls and some times stupidly buy when the share price is going up.
DYOR. GLA.
@NoloServileCapis, also come to think of it, how many of the 1550 pubs have big car parks.
Seems like a great opportunity to bulldoze all these pubs and build big blocks of flats.
Would be a fantastic opportunity to marstons and flatten all the pubs to turn into social housing.
government are doing all they can to flood the country with migrants that dont drink but need somewhere to live, so it would be a great opportunity for some party donors to make alot of money.
Trent
Good afternoon to you too, all good your end I trust ?
Nothing much to report here, on fanrasy board land, the SP is still in the toilet, basically option money down at these levels.
Still have the same puff puff puffers at every opportunity or even when there is no opportunity, have you missed anything ?
Nah, nothing, nowt at all.
Karl,
Do you have any idea of the complications involved in converting pubs to housing? Many are beloved locals and character properties that will have staunch defenders. It might not be quite as easy as you imply….
@Supercharger, I prefer my plan currently, this will mean a 150% profit from here to any buyers now.
Would prefer to see Marstons have a takeover bid for £500m now, and get the estate sold off to a property development company to make way for social housing.
Karl - we just need to be patient. Warm weather is helping sales. This September is already breaking temp records. With prop. Valued by the accountants at £2Billion and with £1Billion in loans clearly the Company has a surplus margin. Sooner or later someone will see this. Increased sales with further improve the credit worthiness (even more so when rates start falling). Not long to wait for the full year results - dealers want you to sell so they have the stock - I am not tempted in any way to sell but instead have seen seen buying opportunities. There is no doubt that some sellers will be buying back soon especially if the results are gathering some upward momentum. Good luck but be patient and not be pushed into selling. IMHO.
Buy the company for circa £500m and turn all the properties into flats, and sell off the whole converted residential property estate to a property managed firm for £2b, and pay off the £1b debt to make £500m profit. Easy flip.
You could even throw away the 40% stake in Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company as it would be worthless without the Marston's pub estate in place.
Carlsberg will panic, one of their big revenue streams in the UK is the Marston pub estate gone and they would be reliant on retail sales and the mercy of rival pub/brewery partnerships.
So really, as a way to protect themselves it would actually be wise for Carlsberg to buy up as much of the current free float of Marston shares to have a controlling position.
Hope you are all well. Just thought I'd check in to say hi.
I hope to see somewhere over 40p -others will laugh but the Fed deputy chair was speaking on Bloomberg today saying he felt Rates must have to come down due to such a strong dollar. Once this shenanigan starts we should start to see better market reaction. So time for me to buy some more!
Based on the Trading update in July 2023, it would appear that Marstons are tracking for a very very good year, and reduced Debt.
So what are people expecting for the October 2023 trading update?
July 2023:
"Like-for-like sales for the 42-week period were +10.7% vs FY2022. Both drink sales and food sales have been strong, demonstrating the steadfast trading resilience of our predominantly community pub estate.
Like-for-like sales in the 16 weeks to 22 July 2023 were +10.9% vs FY2022, reflecting the warmer weather in June, which enabled us to maximise the return on investment in our outdoor trading areas undertaken ahead of the summer months.
Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs for the 42-week period were +12.0% on last year."
Wonder if the closure of many Schools will help lunchtime meals at local community pubs such as what Marston offer? In some ways parents will need a lunchtime pint too? I wonder if it from a sales point of view will be looked upon as an extended school holiday? I feel we need increased sales as the BOD have said to over £1billion in sales, and then as rates come down to re-structure remaining loans for an extended period at a cheaper rate as property values increase on cheaper rates to move above the current £2billion level. Perhaps also if excess profits are being shown to give the shareholders something back in return even if a small divi it point towards a Company now being post pandemic in a better financial long term position.