The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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'' going forward!''
A pet hate. It is superfluous.
Yes, any good news is welcome. I will have a hobgoblin a bit later.
Thanks for your comments of sympathy - There is life after Death afterall - Marstons have just won Four Titles in the World beer Awards - this is a big World Wide win for them and will no doubt help future Beer sales - well Done Marstons who have pedigree too! Great news for this Company going forward! I am pretty sure we will now be a target for many World Beer Companies at these silly low share prices. See link below :-
https://www.marstons.co.uk/news/hobgoblin-celebrates-top-beer-titles.aspx
Great morale boost for the brewers that have been finally been released.
https://www.marstons.co.uk/news/hobgoblin-celebrates-top-beer-titles.aspx
Bought some more at 42.40 and we are already 2% up on the day...something is brewing!
Sold out last week @53p
Going to watch and wait before i come back in
But cant see much good news
Sorry about your loss. please all watch Dr John Campbells videos on Vitamin D. This guy should be our Government health secretary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqZLMoLvhgk
PM01 - really sorry to hear your news. We recently lost my Mother -in-law aged 90 but they put that down as old age. My own Mother died young from cancer and so I feel sorry for all those who need alternative treatments to Covid. Covid appears to have taken over the world, but it has been shown those who have had it (some do not even know they have) if they get a second wave will suffer less as their own body can deal with it quite easily. The second wave has been shown to have a lot less strength. Based on the last Equity value this share is already underpriced and so I do not feel we will drop much as we always gain support in the 40pences and soon return back up to 50p for the time being. If the deal is confirmed we will fly so you are better in than out as we will then fly back up to 73p or so in my opinion. For many it will be too late for them to get back in as the price could rise overnight! I am sticking and topping up with profits from other shares so it costs me nothing. GLA
My father dies at almost 92 and had covid positive 3 weeks before he died and 2 negative, one being the day before he died when they said he had hours to live. His X-rays from 2017 showed his lungs were failing and has had pneumonia a number of times. BUT they put Covid as primary cause and COPD and frailty as secondary. He was going to die anyway, he even said so himself last year. The numbers are being fudged. I think Government will ease lockdown ahead of a Christmas period, say Mid Nov and reinstate after teh New Year if necessary. All to maintain the economy. But I would Unlock now and care for elderly and vulnerable. Marston depending upon the lock and unlock dates should be well placed to take advantage based upon my local setting.
The bottom line is all vaccines being currently tested will only provide limited protection and will not be part of mass vaccination programmes until mid 2021. Some people will not get vaccinated, this means we will struggle until beyond next summer, I can see the SP hit 25p before hitting 50p.
Welcome Finnacle for some clear water & common sense - that can also be written positively a lesson for many on here.
What I will say is Marstons being the largest brewer in the Uk producing a wide variety of quality premium beers that does not rely on just one source of income like some (i.e. Pubs) it has a tremendous framework of distribution to all of the major supermarkets, recently signed up with Amazon and even now ebay. This will suit either private home drinking as well as those going out in a group of less than 6. They are therefore in a far better position than any other Beer producer. I am helping them with the name for a new Beer which if accepted will also produce some support for the NHS or other chosen charities and could become a house wife favorite. Watch this space. Marstons will not fail it has an income where most other firms do not the equity value alone is worth far more than the current share price. In my mind a safer bet than many other shares! In fact in times of trouble -people actually drink more Beer not less!
hi all , just to clarify i'm not trying to be negative - or as some think to short, i've never shorted anything or ramped/deramped anything either, its just an opinion, which differs to some on here, who are perhaps LTH's that cannot bring themselves to believe whats going on with the SP, or they purchased before covid at 100p+ and are locked in until a recovery maybe next year. i bought at 23.5p and sold at 60p earlier this year, i don't hold currently or do i want to. my comments were simply to say to those that are not invested here and thinking of doing so to hold back and remain patient before jumping in as it has further to drop, thats it - a friendly word of caution, something i could have done with over the years in certain stocks i thought were the next big thing when a lot greener before getting burned on tech and telecom shares in the early 00's... turns out i'm right here so far with a drop to 43.8p today, thanks to the recent bad news regarding a huge spike in covid cases back to may figures, localised lockdowns enforced, pub closures, and the pending announcement from boris tonight. . .this may well be in the late 30's by 4.30pm friday, as i honestly do not think you can downplay the covid facts in front of us all. the government - if you read between the lines - are stating, they are doing 'everything they can' to avoid another national lockdown, they are not saying we are not getting one... they are declaring they are doing what they can but still failing, then if a national lockdown is upon us they can blame the general public for not following guidance. honestly good luck whatever you chose to do, buy, sell or hold, that is your business and each to their own. i just feel its got a way to drop yet and anyone choosing to invest in this very high risk share should approach with extreme caution or have balls of steel! some on here were declaring this as a 'strong buy' at 53p in late august, two weeks later its nearly 10p lower, i hope that not too many took that advice.
Interesting debates below.
Agree big cloud over this sector but I believe the government will try all they can to keep the hospitality sector afloat for as long as they possibly can... i recon they will delaying a full lock down if poss and if they do have a full lockdown they will offer further financial support etc
Some pubs have and will go continue to go under. That's just business especially when there is significant headwinds. I chose this share because IMO i believe "IF" it can weather the storm it should be well placed to capitalize on the opportunities post COVID. That said agree it could drop more in the coming days as we seem to be getting nothing by bad news re COVID.
Bumpy road ahead!
GLA
20 people died WITH covid - having tested positive in the last 28 days. The fact PHE were counting anyone who had ever tested positive who then died as dying of Covid does beg the question why did they want the death figures to look so bad compared with other countries? Because that’s the only effect I can see.
Whilst we have a few Shorters on this board who must be desperate for our share price to fall, you are right in that even yesterday only 20 people died in the whole of the Uk from Covid related disease, whereas in the UK it was said 1 in 3 people will die from cancer in their lifetime. That would be over 20 million people. Perhaps we should forget reporting on Covid at all and report on some more interesting news I am sure I am not the only one bored with all of this TV news reports and the political parties looking for advantage points. I am fortunate in that even though I know plenty of people who enjoy a pint I do not know of anyone close to me or related to me that has actually died of Covid. Perhaps having a few Marstons is the cure - well it does me no harm in my sleepy Village in ?? Norfolk. ha.ha.
Every share is cyclical and this will be too. I see this as a strong buy which is my opinion that I am entitled to. Time will tell if I am wrong -but I am happy to follow my own instincts.
and so it begins... the north east and wales are just the start...pubs nationwide will now start imposing a curfew sooner rather than later, if not back to a full lockdown in the coming weeks... anyone that really thinks this is a 'strong buy' with this level of risk attached needs help..
The North East is set to get new lockdown measures enforced, including a 10pm curfew imposed on pubs and a ban on meeting anyone outside your household. The new lockdown restrictions are said to be coming into force just after midnight on Friday. This follows a dramatic spike in coronavirus cases across the region.
..Edwina, we have already had a full national lockdown, we don't need to wait for a specific death count for another, the government can and will impose this if they think its for the good of the nation long term. the facts are staring you in the face, below are real headlines from the last 24 hours, not fake news!... stop sticking your head in the sand you cannot do anything about it, another lockdown is coming, so start stocking up on loo rolls..
Infections have soared in the past fortnight after schools and workplaces began to return to normality
It comes as official data shows cases among people in their 40s and 50s have risen by 90% since August
Fears of a second wave are growing as number of daily cases has topped 3,000 for the first time since May
Britain has recorded nearly 4,000 new Covid-19 cases for the first time since the start of May and the number of people being admitted to hospital has risen once again, adding to mounting fears the outbreak is spiralling out of control again.
It came as government figures reveal Covid-19 cases are soaring among middle-aged people in England and have risen by upwards of 90 per cent in a fortnight as the outbreak continues to grow
Some very interesting exchanges today . I understand caustious optimism is where our vaccine is at, currently.
Where Russia is concerned one wonders why they are exporting vaccine rather than using on it's own population where there is a huge problem. Maybe India is being used for trials...as a guinea pig! Would anyone here volunteer for a dose of Russian Vaccine???
It is widely rumoured our "friends" across the pond are trying to corner first supplies from the UK
In so far as Income Loss Insurance, the FCA asked to High COurt to determine the Contractual Liabilty of Insurers. The High Court determined, on the basis of the FCA's Claim that insurers did have an obligation.
It was not within the remit of the case that Judges take into account other fundamental facts....the Claims made by Landlords/Tenants in regards Central Government Grants, Furlough Money etc. One can be very certain Insurers will Appeal the High Court ruling and use the Government's Funding contributions . It could be fundamental to the Appeal, the loss of income is not an Act of God, pestulence , plague of locusts etc but the Act of a 3rd Party who should be joined in any liability.
You can see where this will go? If for argument sake, the High Court ruling is upheld, insurers are bound to discount any proven loss by the Excess applied to individual Policies. This could be on an individual claim little or huge. Remember an agrieved Claimant would need to prove a loss, many pubs handle cash, so not easy to establish even with comparitors from previous periods.
This case may have a long way to go as Insurers will not want a presidence setting.
In respect of release of Corporate Information, Fiona has very eloquently addressed the continuing submissions. Anyone with Professional knowledge who acquires information NOT within the Public Domain would be guilty of Insider Trading, a very serious offence.
The whole Hospitality sector is almost in crisis and unless something dramatic happens it is highly likely many Pubs will close. Take note of Tim Martin and the Pub and Beer associations concerns. Weatherspoons, to correct the record ,do have premises in Provincial areas and not just major cities. If you do not believe Tim Martin read the Pub and Beer Association's reports. Sale of products outside of Bars and Pubs, may bring in cash flow but margins are skinned to the bone, leaving minuscule profits.
The JV with Carlsberg should be read thoroughly. it is a combining of Marstons breweries and Carlsberg's (CMBC) , the distribution forms part of the New Company. In the Agreement , Carlsbrg require Marstons to retain at Least 50% of it's Pub/Bar outlets . Marstons will recieve a tranche of funds which will be used to reduce debt.
The whole idea from the start was to supress the virus and get herd immunity. You can't eradicate it. You have a big first wave, then smaller successive waves. A full national lockdown is out of the question unless deaths start getting towards 500+ a day. I'm guessing they'd accept a steady 100+ a day. Check Brazil, no lockdown at all and deaths now trending down. People will just have to live with this for another 8 months or so, whatever the fanatical media idolises. No point completely suppressing it as it only prolongs the inevitable. I'm guessing the majority of people in the UK wouldn't take (or even be offered) the Vaccine anyway. They will take step by step. And give each step a month to work through the numbers. The government need to keep social places open for sanity reasons, maybe 10pm curfew but I doubt full closures, there will be uproar. Excess deaths is what you want to look at, another lockdown would mean twice the amount of people dieing from operable ailments than covid.
In FINAL stage 3 Russian trials. Bloomberg commented 3 million doses are released not just for India but a benefit for the Whole World. The Vaccine race is now here - whether the so called Market shorters like it or not.
Official Sales figure if released by MARSTONS are not in breach of any confidentiality agreement. An agreement such as this only applies to the "due diligence undertaken" and in fact if the figures are withheld from the Market or disguised in any way the Company itself will be in far more trouble from shareholder and LSE rules of reporting. The is no take over of the whole Company here anyway just a merger to the distribution arm to form a new partnership with Carlsberg for distribution.
Believe what you like Marstons press office will tell you if you enquire to keep watching their "official site for a release soon" -maybe you should all look next year!! Also I understand hundreds of thousands of a vaccine is already processed and ready and waiting for clearance to be shipped to the states. "The Lancet" also recently said that after studying the Russian vaccine test results it could work as well as they have said. So continue in your own World but this thing will soon be done as quick as it came!
@Fiona
A very informative & helpful post, as usual, totally agree, especially your last paragraph.
Thanks for raising the level of discourse on this board.
Away from the current noise on this board (Change of subject)
The link below, we are following very closely to see which institutes are surging forward with the vaccine program. Download the pdf on the site and it will show the different organisations and how far they are. It's very interesting to see that the UK are already in the latter stages of Phase 3 (albeit a small pause due to a patient having a reaction with another administered drug).
Covid trials and progress per company/triel:
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
With an estimated date of Dec 02 2020 for completion of all participants under the AstraZeneca:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04516746?term=astrazeneca&cond=covid-19&draw=2
So with all that being said I very much doubt having read each of the links within the document on Link 1 if there is a vaccine within 4 weeks I will be extremely surprised.
My thoughts on MARS are still on a long term goal (2021 min Q3-Q4) and as for figures being released soon that's utter tosh. Nothing will be disclosed to "contacts" etc not only is it against all ethics of an organisations confidentiality statements but illegal with dire consequences.
Ok I will deny I live in Sleepy Suffolk, if I was to buy property I would prefer somewhere even more sleepy such as Norfolk.
I will touch base in four weeks regarding a new Beer for Marstons however as I am already talking with them!! ha.ha.
Good luck with your shorting - it only encourages me to buy some more!!
i'm sticking with sleepy suffolk, you didnt say i called it wrong. good luck with your thoughts here too, on the plus side one of us will be right. lets talk in 4 weeks about that vaccine roll out!
Who said I even live in the Uk all of the time?
Anyway back to Marstons I thought a new beer could be called "Captain Tom" and a small donation could be made to his NHS charities with each pint/bottle sold. In this way we support the govt. funded NHS, as they have supported Pubs keeping them stay open. if not "supermarket sales will go wild" - however in my local sleepy store most Marstons owned beers are sold out anyway! Sometimes in life it pays to work together to get things done rather than against each other. As I was told once the rules of the Country are "do not complain about your neighbour as one day you may need your neighbour" - good luck with your own views.