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I mean the markets view could reassess....
Thanks Giant Squid - Appreciate that and i hadn't overlooked it... My only worry is second wave etc, would that effect the valuation? Could this time be used to reasses?
typo, missing word: "third CANDLE of a "three white/green soldiers" bullish pattern"
This looks realistic (but by no means certain). The SP went over 80p twice on the 26 May and 8 June, with an increasing base line. That was when Marston's had not reopened yet. Now that we know that it is better placed than other pub chains to weather the crisis, and we are on the third of a "three white/green soldiers" bullish pattern, with healthy volume overall, and firmly above the 100 and 50 simple moving averages, a further solid rise seems likely.
The JV values Marston's brewing business at £580m
£580m / 660,360,000 shares in issue = £0.88p per share
https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Article/2020/05/22/Marston-s-and-Carlsberg-UK-to-merge-in-780m-joint-venture
Thanks All,
Spent the afternoon researching to see if i should top up or not - I did.
I think this has 80p + all over it when JV lands.- Concur?
ATB
Yeah that’s exactly what I’m thinking Peltata and could keep continuing to climb. It’s going to definitely be an interesting week which always makes for fun either way. I have lost my bet already .... I went for 28th I believe and a share price around 52p! Fingers crossed we see this continuing in the direct we all want it!
sparster .... yes it was
and if this covid wasn't about ..... a tie up with carlsberg ....BOOM
It isn’t fully priced in yet Sparster - look at the charts when it was first announced. The back track came following CAMRA RNS which has since been resolved. JV is due to be completed around month end give or take - we’re talking days.
Thanks Led sparky - Wasn't SP over £1.20 a year ago and covid not around...?
I am invested here by the way.
it'll fly once jv is finalised
i don't believe its priced in ...... look at the price a year ago
Do you guys think the price will rocket when JV is finalised? Isn't it priced in now...?
More momentum from those thinking the JV is imminent? It’s been creeping up steadily for a week now, it’s the most obvious reason imho.
Any reason for the large increase today relative to other pubs? Is it now too late for Supercharger to buy back in? The board will be quieter without it.....not sure if that's a good or a bad thing .
On another note it’s lovely to see Marstons share price slowly rising nicely!! I’m wondering when it’s going to stop and where it will end once they announce the joint venture is officially a done deal! Happy Monday everyone!
There’s every chance he missed a 0 out. Surviving is everything during a crisis and is not something to underestimate.
Reincarnated...are you suggesting the 1920's or 20pences.
Tricky..... suggest you choose your words more carefully.
I 'll respectfully ask you to provide factual evidence which is contary to that posted?
Methinks the ladies doth protest too much? Not too late to dry your eyes and jump in guys n' gals. Price ain't going backwards whatever dumb ass nonsense you come up with.
FD
As usual a very interesting & accurate summing up of where we are.
Only point I would add is that the payment by Carlsberg which is earmarked to repay debt can presumably only be used against their cheaper bank debt and not the unpleasant securitised instruments out to 2035, which were taken out in the mid 2000's at a fixed rate of approx 6%, "with a very significant redemption penalty".
This is a cross we have to bear for a further 14 or 15 years, and is the bulk of the debt, figures taken verbatim from a reply to me by RF following my enquiry 4 years ago.
Clearly when these were taken on they appeared a cheap option, and with inflation would be less important each year, trouble now is inflation is not happening even with the massive stimuli, indeed with a real chance of negative interest rates we could see deflation
Good honest post. Quite simply, what we can expect is to Marstons to pull through and be a survivor, but not a winner.
What markets hate is uncertainty and there is going to be a lot of that for the next few years, this is why I have suggested a return to the 20's at some point.
Thanks for the comments FD. Looks like the writing's on the wall for the brewing arm already. I'm assuming that Carlsberg will retain the brewery here in Burton for the production of some of the bigger brands like Pedigree, but if they were to move production elsewhere it would be a big loss for the town.
Very true and well put FD. For now at least, it should see us past Covid which stands Marstons in a better position that many others - Take covid off the table and there’s every chance it would have been a 50/50 split. If Carlsberg are indeed cash rich on the other hand then they’ve been doing something right along the way and RF may learn a trick or two in the process.
The Company receives £239m on completion the remaining, up to £34m, is payed 12 months after completion and dependant on the price of a basket of Company's.
Marstons Brewing Co has been regarded as the Jewel in the Company's Crown. The JV as anyone knows will enable the Company to reduce it's huge debt pile.
Based on the respective sales of Marstons (£389m), Carlsberg (£414m), a 50/50 split would have seemed appropriate, however as is easily seen by those who have followed MARS these past few years a cash offer could not be resisted. It is entirely likely following the aborted sale of Pitcher and Piano last year and then the hugely discounted Sale to Admiral, RF was between a rock and hard place and the approach to or from Carlsberg was extremely opportune.
It should be noted that whereas Marstons sales had increased year on year for at least 3 years whereas in the same period Carlsberg sales have fallen each year (17-19 inclusive). Carlsberg are relatively cash rich and Marstons not.
I have projected Marstons share of profits from the JV, previously, and just to standstill sales for the Joint Venture must grow by 22% in the first 5 years. Be in no mistake Carlsberg will call the shots, they already have. Just hope the requirement of Marstons to retain at least 50% of Pubs is not a "Bear-trap".
Dismissing the possibilty of a "Tetley" situation is ignoring Carlsberg's record in JVs/Takeovers.
Anyone who believes Carlsberg is a Charity need to seek help.
The problems for the whole industry are manifest and only time will prove who is right and who is wrong.
And that’s where the 273m balancing payment then came in. Doesn’t really matter what happens, there will always be one or two that find a reason to complain haha