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Marston's no longer has the same financial vulnerability the company had back in march and during the last lockdown. It's a whole different kettle of fish now that the company has joined forces with Carlsberg, a £125 billion global giant. Risk has been greatly reduced. Carlsberg wasn't put off by the prospect of further lockdowns - they would definitely have weighed up all eventualities, including the possibility of further lockdowns, and for the deal to go ahead, they're clearly not concerned about the pandemic. The plan will be to sell more Carlsberg products in Marston's pubs so Carlsberg have a strong interest in ensuring Marston's pubs survive and thrive going forward. Having a cash rich partner with a global reach puts Marston's in a much stronger position than they ever were before. The lockdown is only scheduled to last 4 weeks - December 2nd it's due to be lifted. Meanwhile businesses can once again rid themselves of wage costs as furlough has been extended into December and the 20% top up is voluntary. In short, I don't think being closed for 4 weeks with no wage costs is that much worse than being open with reduced footfall due to restrictions and having wages to pay. Taking all this into account, any downward movement, in my opinion, is likely to be very temporary and largely sentiment driven. Considering the JV with Carlsberg, I think it's highly unlikely we'll see anywhere near the march lows again. And don't forget the supermarkets will continue to sell the company's beers throughout the 4 week lockdown, as well as online sales. Very few professional investors would be so shortsighted as to base investment decisions on a 4 week lockdown! The JV is a huge deal and as investors we really need to keep focus on that. And in the meantime, try to look a bit further ahead than the ends of our noses!
Think that is the key question. What happens if the lockdown gets things back under control before Christmas, but Christmas and all the parties ets get us back whete we are now?
That would mean another lockdown in January and then maybe another just before mass vaccinations start. Hello 25p!!!
Supercharger- I like to think the lockdown was already priced in and anyone like myself still invested in Mars knew the very likely chance of this happening, I am here because I see big upside with the JV and would think they are likely to be one of the “safest” hospitality stock. As for the price I think low 40’s for the panic sells then hopefully a steady rise after that if a good enough support package is agreed Wednesday. Fingers crossed for everyone invested
PitterP - I am afraid Isa's do not really work for me as they are limited on an annual allowance and are less flexible than I would like. I enjoy moving money around for far better returns than what Fund Managers or Personal Isa's can provide for me as once a withdrawal is made the money cannot be replaced.
I suppose when I become a little bit less active and move towards having a quieter life it might be an idea if they are still around. It would have to be a stocks/shares Isa as you say as there is no interest on cash about and I would dare to suggest we might have negative interest rates in the Uk the way things are going soon. Perhaps one suggestion in the middle of the Boris Lockdown 11 (sounds like the Rocky movies) is a small comps tracker on the whole index?
The problem with jumping shares is it that it only takes one wrong move to wipe out all your profits and then some, but if it works for you then that’s great. I only hold 40,000 shares here but will defiantly consider bumping that up to 100,000 if there is indeed a dip moving forward. Don’t really see it myself but I guess the new measures could make for another opening, am relatively positioned in either event. As for the capital gains factor, a stocks and shares ISA built up over the years is probably the best answer.
adysm -what is your opinion you do not say? Do you feel it will be the same form as before? or with less income from the JV with only 40% income and where it may take time to get the Shire horses fed it might be worse to get them back on the road? I hope someone tells the Horses that they are not in Denmark and the Horses should be on the left hand side in the Uk? it might be worth avoiding Burton on Trent until they become acquainted.
I had a quick look at the Marstons chart and on 17th March Marstons were 22p? Do you feel they will rise up from 48.30p? I am interested in your opinion? I seemed to remember most others were saying 80p after the JV when with my conservative 73p I was mocked. I will say on Monday we will be 38.40p to get the guestimate/ ball rolling?
Anybody want to hazard a guess to the SP on Monday and then by the end of the week? This can be the gentleman’s sweepstake 2.0
Lockdown from next Thursday Pubs to close. Time to buy on the dip chaps but for the time being until the dip strong sell. I just hope my other shares hold up. A lot going on next week what with the USA elections as well. I hope my Gold/Silver miners hold out too they should do with a falling pound and then I might come back in here later depending on how much those in favour of the JV hold out, but if we go back down to the 30P range I will come back in and sell some of my Dollar earning shares. Good luck whatever your persuasion but I have said for sometime be careful.
Pitter P - everything is a balance i.e. You can take your 24% profit and invest that into other shares (which is then free cash) so that you take take on more risk? Or invest it in other shares. i.e. I took my Marstons profit and reinvested in the Banks, i.e. Nat West, Lloyds, my wifes holds Barclays, the first two have already increased by another 10%, so the 24%'s plus 10%'s compound all start to add up. I do go for growth rather than income as when I get paid dividends I am afraid my wife and I will pay a higher rate of tax on them, so for us it does not pay always to have a divi. I would rather sell before the divi is released and take the profit on the share rise up until the ex-divi date. My M&S, Dominoes and Kingfisher have all done well with the first lock down and will continue to do well with the second. So we all have to make choices and I am glad yours are working for you. Mine over the past 10 years have simply made life more comfortable, as even when I worked at Lloyds my father in law left us some land which I developed to build 5 houses. So this is just a hobby being honest with you, as I always have a lot going on and currently also care for my elderly father.
SC, I was 50% down on that miner during Lockdown and held regardless, my biggest mistake was not adding there as shortly after it went the whole hog but I already had a considerable amount and did well regardless. You only need to google day trading vs investing to understand that your methodology is flawed. Are you 1 in 10% ? Possibly, yet I doubt it given the lack of it conviction and emotion demonstrated. We clearly view odds very differently. The future dividend here for instance is basically your exit in one sitting whilst still holding all your shares which would almost certainly be sat at a higher level by that point also. So yes, if I want 10% - 20% then I really don’t need to sell my shares, I just need to wait for the dividend to be reinstated ??
Pitter-P I do not set my sights so high as you and you have done very well if you always look to 100% profit - I don't as I have said and am happy with a far lower percentage, a profit is a profit.
After my post last night and the news this morning of lockdown considerations it looks like I will be coming in here sooner rather than later - maybe even next week. I am not a greedy man. Like you I sold my mining shares at the start of the first lockdown and did very well there and hope to do the same again having spread some risk into there. The lockdown to me means time to get active. Good luck Pitter P you have a more perceptive thought process than many on here. However for the Miners shame we lost ACA, but still have HOC and CEY which could be a good place next week with the USA elections and all. Otherwise if you can wait I feel longer termers will be the shares I have already mentioned in my opinion as one should never put all of their eggs in one basket, or in Fairtrader, Barchild and Cramer v Cramer's case over the fire this weekend. Next thing they will be saying I have a contact in Downing St.... Ha.ha and it will not be the Cat? For my early morning post timings on the net, anyone with a Tesla will know it always pays to recharge on economy 7, when my fleet of Milk Floats are out delivering - hahaha - Good weekend ooharrrr.
Yes in all fairness 24% isn’t bad, but that’s day trader range. I look for 100% plus on all my investments or don’t find it worth my extended time. A miner I recently sold for close to 1000% after spending the last 3years there. 24% just seems like a crap shoot to me... there’s no conviction you know. You either believe in the company or you don’t, and if you don’t then there’s really no need to be involved in it in the first place. Funny enough, I haven’t posted any kind of comments on that board since my departure, go figure. GLA
Investingnewb - You are quite correct Boris is considering another lockdown, and we will see how the market reacts if he does next week. The group on here really do not listen up to them. I will put this on my list of lockdown buys with IAG, Easyjet, Rolls-R, Tui, Stobart, and finally after some re-adjustment Mars. I am already in for lockdown those that have shown they do well i.e. Kingfisher, Dominoes, M&S (as Ocado too expensive) and unlike Fairtrader who shops at Asda I preferred Tesco and Morrisons - good luck "active investors" now is your time.
US elections and a 4 week lockdown only means 1 thing.....time to top up again. Perhaps SuperDischarger will get a day release pass and invest in some cheap shares. I guess we won't be hearing from him today has he'll be out Trick 0r Treating in his Tesla mobility Scooter. Have a good weekend everyone I'm off to make Game pie and YES I'll be using Owd Roger Ale.
Pleasant weekend members and yes you too SC !!
I think we can safely say Monday will see a drop in share price with the news circulating on another national lockdown! Let’s see what it brings and fingers crossed for a increase but I’m not holding my breath! Surprised there hasn’t been much reporting on the completion around the JV either with only a handful outlets reporting on it so far. I was fairly close with my 51p on completion .... slightly ..! Happy Halloween!
barchid could be a Night Owl, but no they are wise, more likely a Bat carrying some wealth destroying condition. Is certainly nocturnal as "Blood-suckers" tend to be . Good day for it!!!!
FD
I notice the most delusional posts tend to be written in the small hours, can anything perhaps be deduced from that ?
Or perhaps he plays air guitar then to that old Stone's number, "Midnight Rambler".
Phsysciatrists state patients who display characteristics of not being able to recognise fact from fiction, make implausible statements, make grandiose statements that cannot be validated, consistently believe they are associated with important people when they are not, have a deluded personality. The condition is very difficult to treat.
The patient stated a few days ago "Fairtrader, Barchid and Yoyoma think I am a Joke"
We can agree, he was right then and right now.
Avoid this patient otherwise your wealth is in Danger.
As always DYOR.
Giantsquid, agree. Out of hospitality sector only stock i hold is Marstons as I think they will now survive and for me the risk vs reward here is appealing
It's better to own 40% of a much bigger pie than 100% of a much smaller one - the new company will be much bigger and offers far more scope plus the JV gains Marston's a valuable partner - a global giant with a £125 billion market valuation.
The cash payment of £230m will be used to reduce debt so contrary to Supercharger's claim shareholders won't see the money, that money is a substantial ASSET that will be used to reduce the business's liabilities and put it on a more secure footing. Net asset value = total assets - total liabilities.
In these exceptionally difficult times, a JV with a global giant is about as good as it comes. Marstons is now one of the safest stocks in the hospitality sector with a much brighter future ahead of it.
Buy-Sell you are quite correct and that is why my biggest headache every year is what shares can I sell in January to March before everyone else does to meet my and my wife's Capital gains allowance. We have no cramer verses cramer. My biggest competitor is my pension provider and we always have a private joke about who has made more with my funds. I usually make more than them on my private funds compared to my pension fund. So Mr Fairtrader you might want to reconsider who is conning who. I would rather be in charge of my own investments that pay someone else to do so and then have them make less than I can myself.
Think about it Mr Fairtrader you said the Pubs was the main business for Marstons and I said it was the "off" sales sold to supermarkets, etc. You should therefore be happy but I am unhappy with the sale of 60% of Marstons main money earnings at the moment in a pandemic that is spreading -despite the fact you disagree. As it turned out Marstons said that they met 90% of sales mainly due to the increase in "off sales" well now they only will have 40% from the brewing side and you feel it is a great deal all of a sudden? You are conning yourself to be honest if you think so. The sale only took place because it needed to protect the Pubs in my opinion and I would have prefered to have sold the Pubs and kept the Brewing business. Or have had a rights issue instead to raise extra needed emergency cash. I appreciate you cannot see what I can but that is not a problem for me after all this is an open discussion and certainly not a con. Think about it you cannot con me. I sold out a week or so ago for 3p a share more than after the deal has been signed. I feel I have been honest when I said openly on this board be careful. We will readdress this issue if the Uk does fall into lockdown but at the moment with all of your positive support I can afford to be negative. Good weekend.
I’d take a +24% return on all my investments any day and every day.
I’m hoping for some upward movement on Monday.
GLA
24% isn’t much to sing about mate, be interesting to see if the institutions start loading up moving forward. Atb
I have followed posts here for a while. Fairdealer out of all your posts I like the last one best
Jekyll and Hyde. worm has turned, delusional, Gamekeeper turned Poacher, or CON MAN. Take your pick!!