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Hopefully!.
I'm hoping to see 82/84p in next few weeks.
Plus news on the Oxford jab rumoured this week too, could be a good few days ahead.
With a Brexit deal seemingly sorted?
Turnpan, Brains SA (skull attack) from The Old Arcade in Cardiff is the best 8 pints I've ever had, from what I remember.
Trent
Thanks and same to you & yours
In Marstons, and your families.
With the markets closing at 1230 today I wonder if the EU/Govt will announce their decision after the markets have closed ?? With Oxford vaccine not till after xmas and this trade decision that will drive the price up then I feel the Ri will be announced. However saying that the RI may not be actually on the table if they've just taken on SA Brain with a 2m running costs. Was nice to see it try and touch 78 earlier briefly, been a good week in all.
Question of when not if
Trent
You have articulated very succinctly some of my fears re this deal, in a perfect world economies of scale could work, but seasoned Marstons watchers have rarely benefited from these, more likely have tumbled over the unannounced tripwire !
Than answers for me. Such as:
How much has this deal cost us?
Where has it come from? and
what exactly are we getting for our money? Just the pubs? (Altbough, I'd get the logic of that, income from staycationers next year perhaps). Are Brains keeping their brewery and under contract to supply the pubs, and for how long?
This rns to me says very little.
Can't be bad, a delayed 139k buy deal from today
cant be as bad as banks surely that is gross.
There are various schools of thought regarding the Pub Sector. Some believe once the pandemic is behind us Beer Houses will return to levels equal to or higher than pre Covid. The thinking being consumers will just want to get out.
There is another school of thought which regards the continual reduction in Pub numbers as an ongoing process. Add to this belief lockdown has changed consumer habits, they still drink but from other retail outlets, where from a brewers angle margins are considerably lower.
Drinking behaviour has been forced to change, the $64,000 question is will drinkers flock back to pubs? I have doubts and as stated many weeks ago would hope to see MARS re-inventing it's Business model looking towards the future leisure environment that will emerge once Covid is over. For Pubs to survive and prosper they need to innovate , which some have and are, but needs to be a coordinated plan led, and partly if not wholely funded from the centre.
AIMO
With Barnier pushed aside with Merkel etc taking on Brexit negotiations I’d say a deal, or the announcement of one, is imminent. I’m a LTH from March so I’m staying in for sure, may be a few bumps but I don’t want to be out of the market at present.
Also, the Brains news today shows this pandemic hitting the smaller brewers with very large companies able to weather the storm and expand their empires. Good news for the big guys - and their shareholders.
Anyone thinks the acquisition means this SP will continue to increase beyond 70p? Or is it currently overpriced in this climate? Unsure whether to top up
Fair Dealer , YoYoMa & Mysterious
Yes the market certainly seems to like it, but the more I think it over the chancier it seems to be.
I am guessing that there will be a price to pay to keep these "taken on" premises up to the standard MARS are now setting themselves elsewhere, also guessing that these "new" pubs might not be "profit accretive" as swiftly as hoped, these things rarely are & if either of these 2 guesses are correct it reduces the free cash flow needed to cut into their debt mountain. This was an essential target of the new Chair even before covid so I can't, without Daave's sort of knowledge of licensed premises likely cash flow in these circumstancee, be anything but very cautious.
So Daave, if you have any thoughts please,they will likely be very interesting.
Having worked for Breweries for over 22 years I cannot understand why Brains have disposed of their pubs unless they weren't doing very well prior to the pandemic..
I know most chains / breweries are offering free or reduced rent to ensure there's someone left to open their pubs back up.. Lets face facts that without tenants and managers there's no business..
Turnpan
Lordy, red barrel, what a shocking drink, it's not still available is it ?
Barchid, YoYoMa,
It is indeed a brave move when Public House sector is being punished so hard. Brain's have clearly hit the buffers and a lifeline in the form of Mars arrives. Brain's have there own Brewery and one wonders how this arrangement will fit with Carlsberg, as it seems Brains Brewery is not part of the deal.
Did understand MARS were intent to build a Pub and Accomodation Business of Excellence once the JV complated. Not sure how taking on a further estate, whose condition etc is not known, fits in with the strategy stated.
It would be useful to get Daave's viewpoint? I expect to talking to some business contacts in Wales later today and will get a view.
At least the market likes it!!!
Marstons doing this is a big "we will be okay statement", and a great market growth play. If they can do this with a few other regional brands come 2021 pub openings they will be absolutely racking in the cash.
Although the Pfizer vaccine has began its rollout, the Oxford one is the game changer due to the ease of mass distribution.
Too brave a move for me. Have sold my holding this morning. Bought for dividends a few years ago. Not my best move but who saw C19 heading our way. GLA.
Solid move, taking over chains to make a bigger dominant position in the market.
Increase foot fall to sell product and gain savings in bigger purchasing power.
Can imagine maybe them doing this with another chain in the next few months, and come mid 2021 being in a great position to make lots of revenue.
Personally I cannot see the price rocketing as the vaccine is already on the streets by another vendor. The approval process is taking time as they're probably dithering over acceptance and how to dispense the vaccine, do they go 50% then full shot or double shot with the lower efficacy rate? With it being already the 23rd I don't think we'll see it this side of Christmas however we can only wait and see like the decision on trade with the Bloc.
Has anyone ever drunk Brains bitter? It's worse than Banks and nearly as bad as Red Barrel.