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London/Trent/Fairdealer
One bright point is that if anyone had felt that they were "long & wrong" everyone has been given the get out of jail card free with this approach.
I posted about 2 or so years ago that they could be attractive to an overseas buyer (weak £) or PE, I never realised all this would happen after they had touched 20p, but certainly the BoD must be pleased not to have to host open shareholders meetings at present, I'm sure they would be asked some sticky questions if so.
FD made an excellent point that Findlay has been a director for 24 years, which I personally feel could be rather too long & to the detriment of us shareholders, question is, will he be director in a years time?
London we are on the same Hymn sheet.
Some of us here have concerns when unreported approaches were happening at the same time Undertakings were being ironed out with Brains. It is pretty evident Marstons have given Brains a life-line, which in my opinion, and may be wrong, undertaking the management of an ailing estate could become a drain on Marstons resources. If Brains who are a very long established and own the Freeholds of their estate, are in trouble, I am not convinced "fresh management" are going to miraculously return the numbers being quoted.
I hope the company is not on an Ego trip!!
AIMO
Hi Fairdealer,
I agree with you and I'm sure Carlsberg would jump at the chance to buy the other 40%.
I also agree that I think the Board could rebuff much higher offers. We have a longstanding CEO who's probably more concerned about the legacy of "his" company rather than what's in the best interests of shareholders.
I hope I'm wrong...
Good morning London69. Thanks for the info. I'd not taken that into account, so it is worth knowing. I appreciate that. At least I now have some numbers.
@Fairdealer, yes, you have some good points. It's hard to try and guess how this will play out isn't it.
Bodes well for Marstons - https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-economy-will-be-unlocked-gradually-after-english-schools-reopen-says-vaccines-minister-12
London on the basis of your thinking Carlsberg are in the background to take out Marston's 40% ( something I suggested a few days ago). Remembering any bidder have got to appease Carlsberg as the JV requires Marstons to retain at least 50% of it's Pubs.
Trent, the is there seems a certain "Bon Homme" betweenBrain's and Marston's, and for sure the managed Pubs are of no interest to an "Asset Broker". Do'nt forget the previous offers, which were not publicised until very recent , were made behind closed doors when even Platinum were not aware.
The question being is Ralph in a sticky place where any offer is concerned?
It is curious just over 12 months ago a raft of pubs were sold to Admiral at a considerable discount and now the BOD considers the Platinum offer massively under-values Marstons. The rationale between the 2 is difficult but not impossible to understand.
One senses even an offer at 150p ( very unlikely) would be rejected by the BOD.
I also neglected to include the 40% joint venture with Carlsberg which could free up circa £300m if sold.
Good morning Trent,
Brains had EBITDA of circa £14m pre-COVID less £5.5m rent payable is a profit of £8.5m which is highly immaterial and just noise given the debt of circa £1.6 billion.
The value of the Group is in the real estate it owns and a P/E firm can increase the leverage to much higher levels than a public company to either invest in growth or pay dividends hence Platinum's interest.
Yes the Brains deal did raise a few questions in my mind at that time too. So much so that I posted my observations on here at that time.
I'm still not 100% convinced though as to how the Brain's outlets are linked to any possible offer for Marstons by this approach, as we do not own those pubs. We are paying a fee to manage them as I understand it. I get that there will be a revenue stream coming in from it when some level of normality resumes, which could add some level of value to any bids that come in, but as those revenue streams are yet untested to me, I'd say that a monetory value to this part would be difficult to put a value on. Unless I am missing something.
fairdealer
Looked at like that I think you may be at, or very close to, the truth as RF's behaviour in this does seem a little odd, to say the least.
Barchid, digging into recent history may provide a clue.
Carlsberg deal completes 30th October.
Deal to manage Brain's pubs agreed and contract exchanged 22nd December
We now know Platinum made 2 offers in December.
Ralph has made it clear following the separation of the Brewery Business his intention to build a Pub, Accomodation Business par excellent. The statement by both RF and Brains Chairman on the conclusion of the deal was extremely amicable. John Rhys of Brain's , said, "This agreement marks the formation of a lasting strategic relationship with Marstons which secures the future of Brain's Pubs"
Considering the above and now Platinum's latest, unsolicited offer, rejected, is RF inextricably linked with promises to Brains which , to him, make a deal unpalatable? Could his position change should Platinum come back with say 125p. Should he hypothetically, reject that offer, Platinum would surely make a hostile bid going over the BOD's heads.
Food for thought!
Hi extrader,
I already hold WH Smiths, BP, AIG and CCL, I just split the money from here into BP CCL and AIG, who I think longer term have a long way to go. In May, I saw an opportunity and switched my managed ISA to a self managed stocks and shares ISA with these 5 with a long term view in mind. I now think the others have a better long term growth opportunity, so cashed in here and shared the joy :-)
Well done on your exit too, as my IFA says, it isn't profit until it's taken.
Good look all. I'll still be drinking lots of Hobgoblin Gold to add to the profits :-)
bids from platinum
Others up too: MAB up 6% JDW up 5%
Momentum really in our favour, I’m staying in for a while more
Hi IanBowmer,
Similar mindset, different strategy ! Bought MARS just over 30, sold half after it doubled and put the profit into SAGA...
2 x Covid-relaxation plays , with differing horizons.
You timed your exit better than me... and Carnival and co haven't moved much yet...
Direction right, timing wrong. Story of my life ;->
ATB
message dated 1st feb 3.29 pm . Definate offer REFERRED to . or am I seeing things that others don"t . A proper base to operate from. What do the Pundits say now, ????.
Not sure if it’s FOMO or what... but I sold out yesterday thinking that’s as high as it’s going to go, do people think this will keep going up? Just scared if I go back in and there is no deal this is just going to plummet?
They rejected 105p they have said as much
Very well played Sir!
Well played!
Got in last May at 37p, got out today at 94.4p biggest profit I have ever made in a single share, I'm reinvesting in more long term recovery shares Carnival, IAG, BP and WH Smiths.
Its been a fantastic and very unexpected ride Marston's, thank you.
Good luck everyone
Totally agree, normality will hit people like a brick and some investors will wonder why they had their blinkers on the whole time
Adding another 500k shares to their long position at 91p. Smart money
People are far too pessimistic
We've yet to have a firm bid at £1.05 yet.
Many here are just waiting for the next bid which will come later this month IMHO.