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Shaperite, some common sense. JPM may have increased expectations to 57p, but many of us are here much above that level, when Dividend was a prime attraction. Keep reading that estate value will increase, maybe, but don't get carried away. Some talk of Leaseholds being of value. They need too examine the agreement with Brains where Marstons have 25 year leases on a 100 or so pubs. Those properties are managed on repairing leases . Yep Marston are responsible to maintain and repair poorly maintained Pub in Wales, so no value here just a liablity.
The hope here is Justin Platt will work the Oracle, which greatly enhances Shareholder value. That is the hope for 2024.
Still a load of garbage, One comment - expect more investment houses to come on board here - behave yourself as stated previously , DEBT , DEBT, and more DEBT, you cannot take a barrow full of bricks to your creditors and say that they are worth £ xxx !!!! Just pray that we can keep slowly whittling down the overall costs !!! The spectre of a ten percent raise in the minimum wage will work wonders - not, more price increases ??? Oh and by the way Morrisons are still selling Pedigree at £5 for 5 bottles !!! Shortage of cash boys, shortage of cash.
We can expect more investment houses to come on board here or their own clients will be saying "how did you miss that one," maybe they were following the wrong "Star" but if there is a stalking Horse or Donkey and wise men they are unlikely to find any room at the Marstons Inn, as they have already said Christmas bookings are up and nearly full.
I'm with you.
Loaded up more at about 27p on the 6th October - hopefully the long awaited recovery is well under way.
This is a recovery stock now - if you filled your boots and averaged down you will be sitting pretty,
On this board, on a day of a very good uptick in share price - currently up 8%
The rating is encouraging after years of decline that's for sure but there is the debt mountain to overcome. I know its Christmas and its hardly a scientific test but I detect better usuage in the couple of their pubs I visit. I have been burned with this stock before, but have added a modest amount today in the hope that JPM are proved right.
What value do they ascribe to the JV in their 100p quoted NAV figure...this SP is now reacting to stabilisation in property outlook IMO
JPM have twigged "leverage concerns are overdone". Marston's are sitting on £2.1bn of property assets, CMBC stake valued at £250m, which is greater than the Marston's market cap and a whole load of leasehold pubs which revert back to freehold.
From The Times:
For the first time in many years, JP Morgan is telling its clients to buy shares in Marston’s, the British pubs group.
The Wall Street heavyweight has been a perennial bear of Marston’s, but with the shares worth not much more than they were during the first lockdown, the analysts now “find the equity story appealing at this level”.
Their calculations suggest that the shares will have doubled by this time next year, even with the economy teetering on the edge of recession.
JP Morgan’s optimism stems from its belief that Marston’s “value-end” offering should mean its pubs weather any economic downturn better than many of its peers. They may even pick up extra trade from hard-up consumers down-trading.
At the same time, the analysts pointed out that next year’s takings should also be bolstered by a busy sporting calendar, with the Euro 24 football tournament and Olympics taking place over the summer.
On top of those tailwinds, JP Morgan said investors’ “concerns about leverage seem overdone”, with most of its debts not needing to be refinanced or repaid until after 2030.
Marston’s shares frothed up 1¾p, or 6.6 per cent, to 30p, although the analysts expect them to reach 58p by the end of 2024. If everything aligns for Marston’s, they can even make a case for the shares hitting 78p within 12 months.
I know I should have said 2024 is a growth yr not 2014 before the school boy short trousers come in looking for their daily snipe!
I will be the one laughing next yr after the rate cuts I am sure!
No one will be shorting this stock at a corporate level now, and only one or two small time investors whom most likely come on her with negativity. However for them time is running out as we have seen how this stock reacts to even talk of reduced rates which is coming in 2014. The company itself has said 2014 is a growth year for sales, new contracts are signed for the ever expanding brewery, franchised pubs are profitable and growing in number, Puns are to be revalued post pandemic, recent sales of pubs have been sold "over book," and with rate reductions and renegotiated short term debt to come as longer term is already hedged, we have a lot to look forward to in 2024! A share just starting to come back and no long before it realistically reaches the values being talked about by JPG and still way below the accountants NPV recently upgraded to over £1 per share.
LOL. Trouble with brokers is they're usually wrong - especially JPM.
No shorts are trying to hold it down
JP Morgan has upgraded its ratings for both catering giant Compass Group and pub and hotel operator Marston's after its latest review of the Europe-listed leisure sector.
The bank has lifted both stocks to 'overweight' from 'neutral', giving both names a lift on Thursday.
JP Morgan said it was taking a "slightly more conservative approach" to estimates and valuations across the European leisure sector heading into 2024, and rolling its price targets over by a year to 2025 calendar year.
"In the context of the solid performance of hotels in 2023, we reshuffle our preferences and turn more constructive on catering (better visibility, decent growth) and remain more selective on gaming," the bank said.
Compass's target price has been raised from 2,200p to 2,500p, while the Marston's target is now 58p from 54p previously.
Compass shares were up 0.4% at 2,115.68p by 1153 GMT, while Marston's was up 6% at 29.93p.
Https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/jpm-on-leisure-stocks--15603042.html
Seems everyday I check the price here it shows rising like today but it remains stubbornly around 30p? Do the MM’s drop the price at the start of each day to show a rise?
JP -Announced the Fed is likely to start reducing rates in the new year and is done with any lifting for this year. Dow has bounced back, and the Indian Market overnight has started moving over a 70,000 level higher.
If the BOE and the ECB signify a similar trend in reduced inflation we can see loan rates reducing which will benefit firms such as Marston not only with reducing financial loan costs, but also with increasing property values where the Estate is already worth over £2b on the books or twice that of high loan rates. So a lot to look forward to in 2024 with not only increased Sales projections but also reduced loan rates. Something that many have criticised in the past. GLA.
Annual results from Marston's (MARS) were released less than three weeks after the pub operator confirmed that chief executive Andrew Andrea would stand down with immediate effect. Justin Platt, the former Merlin Entertainments chief strategy officer who will take the reins in January, has a significant task on his hands to rejuvenate the share price, which is stuck far below pre-pandemic levels.
Like-for-like (LFL) sales rose 10.1 per cent against last year, with food and drink spend rising by 8.1 per cent and 8.6 per cent respectively. Momentum slowed after the year-end, with LFL sales up 7.4 per cent, although management flagged that Christmas bookings are ahead of last year.
Elsewhere, income from the company's joint venture with Carlsberg (DK:CARL.B) tripled to £9.9mn.
Despite revenue growth getting the company closer to returning to £1bn in annual sales, it fell into the red as £21.6mn of losses on interest rate swap movements and £31.2mn of property impairment charges dragged it down.
Looking ahead to the medium term, management is targeting a 200 basis point uplift in margin. The underlying profit margin was flat in the year at 14.3 per cent, on increased operating profits of £125mn.
Analysts at Peel Hunt argued that the 9.8 per cent increase in the national living wage, which is coming in April, "should be mitigated by adjusting prices from one of the lowest price points in the sector and the acceleration of the cost efficiency programme".
The valuation is cheap, with the shares trading hands at just four times forward consensus earnings. But as we have noted before, the hefty discount to net asset value could also highlight justified market disinterest. Hold.
Last IC view: Hold, 35p, 16 May 2023
For FY2024, if the company can keep the margin of 2023H2 and no more one-off items like the "the final settlement following a transitional services agreement with CMBC", we can expect a decent Cash In-flow of £40m to £50m, but the market capitalisation is only £189m, so means the company can earn that money in less than 4 years. Don't forget the net value of pub properties is over £600m ( after loan). You are basically buying the pub properties at less than 1/3 of their net worth plus the pubs will make enough money to buy you another Marstons. Unbelievable bargain!
Now we have the annual result, we know what happened to the £24m (i.e. £55m-£31m): it was mainly used to pay suppliers, so you can see from the Balance Sheet that "Trade and other payables" reduced to £170.4m from £204.4m. From the notes, I guess this might be "the final settlement following a transitional services agreement with CMBC".
A £35m profit before tax but for the past 2-3years the same old doomsters visit this site with no faith. They hope to wait on the fence for an offer to come in before they buy, but let's be honest Mr Cuprinol will not be quick enough to get back in should a sudden offer come in, but why would Marstons want it to happen? They are not bothered about the company debt which is reducing with improving sales, and margins. They are gearing towards £1 Billion in sales where debt is reducing (which will be far cheaper once interest rates fall and debt can be re-negotiated to bring savings. Prop, values also now increasing will accelerate on cheaper loans too. Millions are currently being spent on Electric charging points being installed in their car parks. If they were that worried short term they would not spend this money which they do for the longer term as it gives them advantages over competitors. See below what they released in their precis table :-
IMPROVED UNDERLYING PROFITABILITY, POSITIVE CASH FLOW AND CONTINUED STRATEGIC
MOMENTUM
Marston’s, a leading UK operator of 1,414 pubs, today announces its Preliminary Results for the 52 weeks ended
30 September 2023. The period under review commenced on 2 October 2022.
Underlying Total
2023 2022 2023 2022
Total revenue £872.3 m £799.6 m £872.3 m £799.6 m
Pub operating profit £124.8 m £115.4 m £90.2 m £142.1 m
Share of associate £9.9 m £3.3 m £9.9 m £3.3 m
Profit/(loss) before tax £35.5 m £27.7 m £(20.7) m* £163.4 m
Net profit/(loss) £32.0 m £27.5 m £(9.3) m £137.2 m
Earnings/(loss) per share 5.1 p 4.3 p (1.5)p 21.7p
Net cash inflow £34.4 m £26.2 m £34.4 m £26.2 m
NAV per share £1.01 £1.02
Underlying operating margin 14.3% 14.4%
*Includes a £21.6 million net loss in respect of interest rate swap movements, a partial reversal of the £109.2 million net gain reported in FY2022, and
£31.2 million of charges in respect of the impairment of freehold and leasehold properties.
Barchid yes it was Platinum on the majority of info, but Vanguard now appear. I am not sure if the 2 are connected or whether there were 2 separate offers
I only mentioned this take over as its in the same brewing,pub,club restaurant sector as marstons and at the time of the deal greene king had a 1.5 billion £ debt,but as you say,the share holders did get to vote,if i remember it was just before or during the first covid lockdown,