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I take it you think a somewhat ceiling has been reached here then?
Putting all your eggs in one basket is never a good policy. Fullers, Shepherd and Neame are up, MAB are down but that is as much to do with intergration of the RI. Any Alcohol Duty reduction is extremely doubtful. The £5B pot expected appears to be going towards creating "Community Pubs" which may help MARS with some disposals, although not sure RF wants the Estate to reduce further against the back ground of the Welsh Mission. There may be some short-term spikes which will enable those who have some exposure, to get out with profit.
Longer term, much depends on the re-opening and how debt is going to be managed. Like other Pub/Hospitality chains we have enjoyed a VAT holiday, MAB have got to find £30m, we have no information what the liabilty is here. There will be No profit for the current year and looking further ahead Bond-holder caviats will not allow dividends for at least 2 years even if profits allow.. It will be good but surprising if we see the SP approaching 130p anytime soon, it is more of a mirage as things stand. Let's hope RF does not rue the day he refused to engage with Platinum.
All pub stocks seem to be slumping today; not sure if that's due to the mixed news reviews over the budget. Nevertheless, think tomorrow will be boost we need to surpass the £1 level and prove the CEO right- that this share is indeed worth far more than 1.05..
More invested here than ever at the moment, so hoping tomorrow will finally give publicans the clarity and support they need. Looking forward to the future with everything reopening, think this is a great buy, particularly for the medium term.
Definitely top up time now before the big announcement and the return to normality, think all chances of buying in any lower now are very unlikely, can see the positive retrace continuing now right up until Autumn/xmas
£1.10 - £1.15 EOW, GLA all.
£2.
Wonder what this SP could reach by the end of summer if normality really does return
Seemed to have supplanted it with grants instead
I’ve not read that they will cut the tax, only that they might make it so that retail of alcohol pay more than pubs.. so, that might mean they just keep it the same (or possibly raise the tax across the board) and increase it for supermarkets/retail.
Barchid,
With a slightly different hat on, in another business I have come to blows with the masquerade known as equivalence. The EU conned the UK, just hope other states who are in open rebellion, are begiinning to see the light, that the Commission is not serving the peoples of Europe.
Back to the topic, Sunak has some horrendous economic man-traps to avoid, a share transaction tax has been mooted for some years and may be gaining traction given the prevailing headwinds ( £2+trillion) debt). Clearly warnings of the BOE and the double forces of the EU and New York endeavouring to gain financial dominance at London's expense is a very real concern. IMO the blue water will emerge due to the fractures appearing in EU unity.
It is unlikely alcohol duty will be reduced when Sunak is promising £5 billion in aid , spread over the hospitality sector and retail. We cannot expect to get support both ways.
AIMO
Fairdealer
Wednesday we will know if there will be a further tax on share dealings but my thoughts are it's highly unlikely as the idea of equivalence with the EU seems a dead duck, so moves to free up the financial markets seem more likely to me.
Puts a bit of blue water between UK & EU, which the BOE have been seemingly implying.
Good news for the sector.
https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2021/02/27/How-much-are-new-lockdown-grants-for-pubs
A share transaction tax would hit hedge funds and high frequency trading? Unless there is a loophole, so I guess they’ll be a loophole! With us PIs getting clobbered as usual.
Having seen 1st hand what tends to happen is the first few thousand hectolitres will be at a nominal Tax rate and then a taper comes into play. This is done in order to protect small craft brewers whose overheads are proportionately higher than the big breweries. Not sure I can share your almost total confidence.
Sunak will have to address the massive deficit at some stage, not necessarily next week although, and there have been rumblings, some less painful to the general public, the imposition of a share transaction tax. The Chancellor already has a captive market with the 100's thousands of new investors who have arrived in the last 12 months. Just think about the revenue that can be made from the "casino users"!!
Its circular flow economics and its something that epitomises the whole financial ethos of the conservatives - get people to spend money at the expense of the govt., to make more money back for the govt. in the longer term (which is why the treasury is always better under a Cons govt. than a Labour one since Labour/socialist ethos = raise money by raising taxes). Sunak is highly likely to cut tariffs or introduce things (like we've seen with eat out to help out) to get people to spend money and get the economy going.
I am 99% sure that beer tax will be cut and MARS, MAB ect. will prosper as a result of this in the coming year
Always strong lobbying to get Alcohol tax reduced. There are unique circumstances, however Sunak does not have a bottomless pit. The suspicion Corporation Tax will be hiked will hurt every Company
Government to cut beer tax to help pubs, this will be a great boost to the SP (would post an article but there's plenty online)
You will be a tad worse for wear then!!!!! Thoroughly deserved after this wait!
Going forward, a question for you guys?
With the fleet of breweries in the CMBC, Eagle brewery has a massive site and large brewing capacity, storage. Now with the impact COVID has had damaging profit etc, would it not make sense now Carlberg hold the larger hand to close down the landlocked smaller breweries such as Ringwood and Jennings? Eagle were knocking out 70 brews a week when brewing red stripe, cobra and the wells brews amongst other contract beers, now only doing 10-15 a week. Selling the smaller breweries/business off would help recoup lost earnings and would not lose out any production capacity, to me it’s a no brainer!
Yeah its not going to be long now until that £1 resistance is hit, look at the facts.
- COVID cases and deaths falling nationwide.
- 19 million vaccinated.
- Opening dates (agreed)
- No curfew or meals required when pubs re-open.
- Furlough extended
GLA - See you in the beer garden !
A bit too early to state that.
The share price remains below 105p and we could have had 105p risk free on 29 January.
Highlights that they were right to reject the 105p offer. Alert level has just dropped in the UK from level 5 to level 4. Positive momentum behind MARS....
I was hoping for the same short term, but I'll doubt you'll get that now, think this will just steadily incline now well into next year (there maybe some opportunities to buy in low when the next report is released as I doubt the figures will be good)
Anticipation of some level of normality resuming would be my guess.