We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
https://www.beerguild.co.uk/news/worlds-lowest-carbon-carlsberg-beer-bottle-probably/
Trent,
The Spread Eagle ( Marstons) is at the junction of the A449 and A5. Get off M6 at jnct 13 and down A449. I stay there when in the Wolverhampton area.. Not many miles north of Stourbridge and straight down the 449.
@Barchid.
Yes, I saw an article about that. Scary figures there for them is that.
On the plus side, doubtlessly they (along with us) will hopefully benefit from increased bookings from Staycationers this year so fingers crossed.
We usually stay at a Premier Inn in Stourbridge when we visit our friends in The Midlands as I had thought there were no Marston's Inns in the area, which is a shame, as I don't really like the idea of giving our money to a competitor.
To their credit though, they do sell Hobgoblin Gold on draft.
Is anyone else starting to get mildly irritated by the bombardment of adverts popping up every 5 seconds on this site?
That said though, I have spotted one for Marstons a number of times though.
I know you can put a stop to them by signing up to a subscription service mind, but given my limited funds, I'd rather not commit to that though.
My bowels are well and truly exercised I think, Barchid. I had a home made curry for my tea last night. I did a "Trent 700 special". You can fly planes on it. Perhaps I did put 1 too many Bird Eye chilli in it.
Proper bog roll in the freezer job. Deary me. I'll never learn.
@Fairdealer
Exercise the mind or the bowels ?
Sadly though you are correct, Whitbread looking for further savings of £100mill today too.
Here are some numbers to exercise the mind.
Whitbreads revenue decreased by almost £1.5billion creating a loss of £1billion.. Whitbread made a fund raise last summer amounting to £1billion. The Fund raise is virtually elimated by the loss.
Marston's revenue for yr 20 was £821m of which brewing revenue was £305m. Brewery profit amounted to £17.3m . Consolidated company results amounted to a £22m Loss.
Now Brewery contribution is reduced expect some nasty losses come End of current year.
It is difficult to see debt reduction achieved without some dramatic infusion of funds, either asset sales or possibly a Fund raise.
AIMO
Good morning Longtimeinvestor,
Further to Fairdealer's response, Marstons primary strategic objective is for net debt to be below £1billion by 2024 (refer to last presentation).
If you run the numbers, you'll see it requires a major disposal between now and 2024. Trading profits alone are insufficient.
I'm still positive about Marston's future share price if all social distancing is removed, as planned, by the end of June.
longtime.......the projected sales you quote are massively overstated.
Combined pre-covid beers sales were stated as £800m, (Marstons £389m, Carlsberg UK £414m). It would be amazing if given economies of scale, cost savings are not achieved, indeed having made losses these passed 2 years ( even bigger this current year), Marston's 40% share must produce a good result to offset the ongoing and consequential losses due to Covid. Unless there are further asset disposals these losses will be carried forward for some time. Marstons have limited ability to dispose of some, if any of it's retained estate due to the JV agreement ( required to retain at least 50% of it's Pubs). The hospitality/accomodation sector is enduring some dramatic sales data, Premier Inns have announced this morning a 70+% drop in revenues. These numbers will be reflected across the sector.
Against this background Marstons are left with the one valuable asset it is able to sell. Carlsberg have track-record, just look at the Tetley agreement, which was a 50/50 agreement. Be under No illusion Carlsberg is almost certain to acquire 100% of the combined brewery company within 5 years.
L69
'' I expect to be sold off in the next couple of years.''
I cannot see why the company would need to sell it's stake in the
CARLSBERG MARSTON’S BREWING COMPANY, when the deal only completed about 6 months ago.
This JV will have about £2 Billion in annual sales when things return to normal and offers
cost saving opportunities in the tens of millions of pounds. Good asset to own 40% of.
"wolf from door"
Londoner.agree with your initial synopsis and add RF's expansionist ventures have increased organic debt to levels where maintaining has led to virtual flash sales starting with the sale to Admiral at a huge discount, and latterly the Brewery sale
Some beleive the link with Carlsberg is beneficial. The benefit being short-term in so much as the traunche of funds received was required to keep the Wold from the door. Ultimately as some of us have predicted the 40% of the brewery will go within 5 years. Carlsberg have history, as Tetley's bear testiment.
I am not convinced the foray into Wales is going to provide the riches some expect. Brain's an Old established Brewer and Pub Owner could not make it work.
Regret RF's legacy is presenting his successor with some formidable issues.
Hi Fairdealer,
RF, under his watch, allowed net debt to increase too high which is why they had to sell the brewery business below MV to raise cash. We are now left with an undesirable minority interest which I expect to be sold off in the next couple of years.
Also, highly leverage listed companies trade at a discount compared to their less leveraged peers, which is why the current strategy to focus on debt reduction is the correct one.
However, it's not all doom and gloom, because the sector was rife with takeovers prior to COVID-19 and with fair winds we may go back to some sense of normality relatively soon.
Or maybe I'm too optimistic....
Londoner in your opinion why has Marstons so badly underperformed??
Good evening all,
We must not forget that Marstons has significantly underperformed in the last 5 years and this can be evidenced by the share price.
In the last management presentation, they stated that they would more to the more profitable franchise model, and this could be a consequence of that strategy.
RF has not retired, which suggests, he was pushed, I really don't understand why it took so long.
Marstons need to cut costs and drive margins in order to improve shareholder value.
I work for a PE backed firm and they would not tolerate such underperformence.
Thanks
Daave, further thought/question.
Many publican/Tenants will have purchased a lease and have equity within the Public House. Is here any indication how those Lessee's are to be compensated?
Daave, thanks
As Barchid states this is indeed odd behavour. 2 things come to mind. As I recall we have not seen the fine detailof the Brain's deal, but will be highly surprised if that Management agreement allows Marstons to treat the "Welsh Estate" in the way explained.
2nd and hope All Publicans/Tenants have examined the terms of their individual Leases as there could/should be Rolloever clauses. No doubt Marstons Legal beavers will have pawed all over the agreements to exploit every possible loop-hole.
With a "Business hat" on can see the financial rewards that Marston's are considering, however at this time when many Pubs are struggling to survive. Even before Covid , many provincial and city Pubs were closing in increasing numbers. Most Tenant Publicans have and are the heart of their Community. Many have sacrificed their own savings to come through this pandemic and have supported Locals during the Lockdown. Managers imo do not have the same dedication to a Community as Tenants.
Marstons could be treading down a road that could open up a can of worms. For instance, and it could already be underway, Mars have lost control of the Brewery, it would not be surprising that Carlsberg as conductor, will orchestrate product price increases which Marston's Pubs will have to stomach.
It would be interesting to hear from any Marston's Brewery workers now transferred to CMBC?
Daave
Thanks for this input, certainly a bolt from the blue.
As you say, this is odd behaviour, perhaps another example of the mushroom culture that seems to be prevalent in their Wolverhampton HQ these days ?
Apparently Marstons have written to several publicans giving them notice that their tenancies or leases won’t have the option of a renewal when the time comes, with mention that if they wish to continue living/working at the venues they will be required to sign over to a ‘Management’ style position within the buildings they have occupied for their last contract..
A couple of other Pub Companies have apparently sent similar letters to a few sites.
To me this seems like there is something happening behind the scenes that they haven’t announced publicly. Up to now, leased and tenanted pubs have been completely different from managed houses.. different ‘Area’ and ‘regional’ management overseeing the different areas of the business..
For them to ‘claw back’ so many sites in one go seems odd.
If I hear anything further I will post it here.
more negatives than positives in the MF report for me, MARS are still cash burning £4m-5m a week staying afloat as the majority of their pubs and hotels will not open for another 4 weeks... IF... the brazilian and indian variants do not creep into the U.K during the next 4 weeks, its likely it will somehow do so, couple this with a possible increased R rate thanks to lockdown easing and we could return to partial lockdowns this summer - and we all know what businesses will be closed first. i think at 90-110p the possible long term recovery of this share, is actually already priced in, any further negative news from this point and it will retrace to 70-85p range...
Taken from Motley Fool
"Booming business
Another hospitality business I’d buy for my portfolio is Marston’s (LSE: MARS). I think this is one of the best UK shares to buy today, based on its recovery potential.
The group’s losses totalled a staggering £360m in 2020, and analysts are forecasting losses of £44m for 2021. But profit could return in 2022, according to forecasts.
Based on the scenes we’ve seen of packed pub gardens over the past week, I think these forecasts could be too conservative.
That said, Marston’s recovery is far from guaranteed. It’s exposed to the same risks as Restaurant Group. Another coronavirus wave could force the government to shut restaurants and bars again. This would send the business back to square one. And after generating a loss of £360m in 2020, there’s no guarantee the company could survive another lockdown.
Even after taking this risk into account, I’d still buy the stock for my portfolio of recovery shares today"
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pubs-performing-above-expectation-since-081055444.html
“There is significant pent-up demand in the economy. The consumer savings ratio is at high levels, and all indications are that the demand for events, for festivals, for live sport, for going out for a meal and for socialising with friends is as strong as ever,” said Shepherd Neame chief executive Jonathan Neame.
Morning all,
Does anyone have an inkling as to why the sector took a hit yesterday? I tried to look up any articles but nothing came up. MAB also dropped 5%. Hoping for an upturn today. The weather is nice for the foreseeable and lots of pub gardens are busy.
Well at least India are now on the Red List, Why it takes almost 4 days baffles me when at Christmas Boris introduced a lockdown here in under 8 hours.
Trent New Zealand.