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Not a single buy or sell all day? Zero movement?
Https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/thirsty-brits-down-400-million-31782414
Https://moneyweek.com/investments/top-stocks-for-the-new-year
Saxman -As Marston supply drinks to the MAB group we also all hope they do well too and Marston and the Brewery will benefit from their equal good fortune. GLA.
Let’s hope so as I am in deep I don’t think it will be as good as MAB
2024 expecting this to be a winner.
Last summary on the Marstons web for 2023 before we enter the growth 2024yr gunning for £1B in revenue.
Pubs to be proud of
Our core strategy and vision is of delivering ‘Pubs to be proud of’ remains unchanged. We achieve our goals, sustainable growth and value creation through our focus on people, experiences and responsibility.
1,414 Pubs and bars c.11,000 Employees £872.3m Total revenue £34.4m Net cash inflow.
2024 is going to be a growth year. Enjoy downing the shorts!
Barchid, I may have not been clear when stating the Brains Leasehold Pubs are of little value to Marstons. THey are held onshort term leases, Ralph Findlay and John Rhys agreed an up front payment ( 6 months Rent in advance). Brains were trying to avoid Liquidation. The terms were on the basis of full repairing leases ( the tenant agreed to repair and in many cases bring some run down pubs up to a good structural standard) there was a handful of Pubs which were so bad and omitted from the final transfer. Those Pubs and for that matter others, were not fully surveyed when the deal was struck. Brains(John Rhys) was anxious to get money in the Bank and Ralph obliged. Brains retained the freeholds on the basis they wished to take advantage of future capital appreciation. That was the story, however within 2 years (2022) the freeholds were sold to Song Capital. Make of that what you will, doubt Song have acquired as a good samaritan, more likely to extract better value from their Tenant!
Turning to the accounts it would do super puffer's limited corporate knowledge the world of good to read the Independant auditor's report. It has some very interesting phrases which could concern any LTH.
Some investors are here seeking a quick profit, but not really interested in the company's long term survival.
As Shorters are getting desperate on here and panic they do really need to read the "official releases" to gain any respect, where the values of Marstons prop. during the pandemic were over £2 billion, something they turn a blind eye to, like they also did not hear or see the Chairman saying the property values during the Pandemic were now to be revalued post pandemic where the Company is making money, and every recent pub sold that was not part of his plans sold recently in excess of current book values. I wonder what the whole estate is going to be worth now to a Profiting environment, not long to wait! GLA. 6.63% gain today in addition to previous gains. Time to re-buy back in shorts before it's too late!!
FD
Indeed it should be noted that according to the results recently put up on their website that net debt, excluding lease liabilities, is currently at £1,185 million down a measly £31 mill from last year (2022 for dischargers benefit as he is usually in the wrong decade), and with lease liabilities debt is £1,566 million which considering the business had prioritised debt reduction a £31mill reduction against their debt figures looks almost insignificant, or a "rounding figure".
I don't think I am misunderstanding anything here but if so I apologise. I always feel nervous when I read the "underlying" EPS is a positive (5.1p) but the "actual" is a negative (-1.5p), there can be good reasons for that but with debt at the levels quoted I think I am correct in being rather sceptical.
As the shorts get burned fast due to the strong buying of Marston shares. We can see on one on here never ever shares a positive view for this or any other share he comments on with the LSE comments message section. The other who he recently agree with and commented sold his Rolls Royce shares at £1.46 and the price of that has doubled since. Shows what two of them know. However true to form I can see the price of Marstons shares doubling in the next two or three weeks, especially when and after the Christmas sales are in, when the new CEO is in, and when the BOE rates are revalued down. GLA.
Do you understand that some here are considering Leases are of value when as pointed out the Brain's element are of no value but a liabilty. Incidentally Drakeford has just announced all Pubs, shops and restruants too have rate relief reduced from 75% to 40%, to plug the Health Service deficit. The affected business are up in arms.
Best to read posts correctly and in context which avoids any confusion!!!
Recovery in progress, bookings for Christmas fully booked, Inflation down to 3.9 %, money broking experts are saying next yr we may see 5 cuts at the B.O.E. what with the CM JV growing fast with new contracts being signed I hear every day, where recently Stonebridge signed including the largest Pub/ Wine bar estate om outlets in the Uk, and the only people being burnt are the small town shorts, some of which have admitted they personally do not now hold any shares -well when they buy them back they will need to pay far more as this share price rises even more into 2024 the Marston growth year as advised on their official web. I will certainly be having a Merry Christmas here. GLA -enjoy.
The debt is attributable to the leases/mortgages on the asserts so I wonder if you are really understanding the financials.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1034179/marstons-loungers-and-gym-group-to-see-shares-rally-says-analyst-1034179.html
Shaperite, some common sense. JPM may have increased expectations to 57p, but many of us are here much above that level, when Dividend was a prime attraction. Keep reading that estate value will increase, maybe, but don't get carried away. Some talk of Leaseholds being of value. They need too examine the agreement with Brains where Marstons have 25 year leases on a 100 or so pubs. Those properties are managed on repairing leases . Yep Marston are responsible to maintain and repair poorly maintained Pub in Wales, so no value here just a liablity.
The hope here is Justin Platt will work the Oracle, which greatly enhances Shareholder value. That is the hope for 2024.
Still a load of garbage, One comment - expect more investment houses to come on board here - behave yourself as stated previously , DEBT , DEBT, and more DEBT, you cannot take a barrow full of bricks to your creditors and say that they are worth £ xxx !!!! Just pray that we can keep slowly whittling down the overall costs !!! The spectre of a ten percent raise in the minimum wage will work wonders - not, more price increases ??? Oh and by the way Morrisons are still selling Pedigree at £5 for 5 bottles !!! Shortage of cash boys, shortage of cash.
We can expect more investment houses to come on board here or their own clients will be saying "how did you miss that one," maybe they were following the wrong "Star" but if there is a stalking Horse or Donkey and wise men they are unlikely to find any room at the Marstons Inn, as they have already said Christmas bookings are up and nearly full.
I'm with you.
Loaded up more at about 27p on the 6th October - hopefully the long awaited recovery is well under way.
This is a recovery stock now - if you filled your boots and averaged down you will be sitting pretty,
On this board, on a day of a very good uptick in share price - currently up 8%
The rating is encouraging after years of decline that's for sure but there is the debt mountain to overcome. I know its Christmas and its hardly a scientific test but I detect better usuage in the couple of their pubs I visit. I have been burned with this stock before, but have added a modest amount today in the hope that JPM are proved right.
What value do they ascribe to the JV in their 100p quoted NAV figure...this SP is now reacting to stabilisation in property outlook IMO
JPM have twigged "leverage concerns are overdone". Marston's are sitting on £2.1bn of property assets, CMBC stake valued at £250m, which is greater than the Marston's market cap and a whole load of leasehold pubs which revert back to freehold.
From The Times:
For the first time in many years, JP Morgan is telling its clients to buy shares in Marston’s, the British pubs group.
The Wall Street heavyweight has been a perennial bear of Marston’s, but with the shares worth not much more than they were during the first lockdown, the analysts now “find the equity story appealing at this level”.
Their calculations suggest that the shares will have doubled by this time next year, even with the economy teetering on the edge of recession.
JP Morgan’s optimism stems from its belief that Marston’s “value-end” offering should mean its pubs weather any economic downturn better than many of its peers. They may even pick up extra trade from hard-up consumers down-trading.
At the same time, the analysts pointed out that next year’s takings should also be bolstered by a busy sporting calendar, with the Euro 24 football tournament and Olympics taking place over the summer.
On top of those tailwinds, JP Morgan said investors’ “concerns about leverage seem overdone”, with most of its debts not needing to be refinanced or repaid until after 2030.
Marston’s shares frothed up 1¾p, or 6.6 per cent, to 30p, although the analysts expect them to reach 58p by the end of 2024. If everything aligns for Marston’s, they can even make a case for the shares hitting 78p within 12 months.