Mineral & Fin Share Chat (MAFL)

https://www.mining.com/goldman-recapitulates-5-a-pound-copper-price-by-end-2021/

Any thoughts on why Ascendant sp has retreated sharply?

Thank you for the link.

Hi mate,

The Argus broker coverage released at the beginning of the month seems to suggest August so im assuming they've spoken to someone at MAFL or Ascendant that has steered them. I doubt it's important but we might have to be a little more patient.

https://www.argusresearch.com/PDFDownloader3.aspx?id=MDAwMDAwOTk0MQ==aAB0AHQAcAA6AC8ALwByAGUAcwBvAHUAcgBjAGUAcwAuAGEAcgBnAHUAcwByAGUAcwBlAGEAcgBjAGgALgBjAG8AbQAvAHIAZQBwAG8AcgB0AHMALwAwADAALwAwADAALwA2ADAALwAyADUALwA3ADAALQA2ADkAQwBEADEARQAyADYALQA1AEYANQBGAC0ANAA2ADgAMgAtADgAMgAzAEQALQBEAEQAMABBADMARgA2AEEAOAA0ADUAQQAuAHAAZABmAA==

On the 3rd of May Ascendant put out a news release that included the statement 'End July: New 43-101 PEA to include North & South zones'.

There should be an update soon, hopefully by the end of the week.

https://ascendantresources.com/English/Investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2021/Ascendant-Resources-Announces-the-Appointment-of-Mr.-Joao-Barros-as-President/default.aspx

https://www.ascendantresources.com/English/Operations/PEA/default.aspx

Thanks silverknight and Quadrum. I'm not desparate to cash in so I'll hold and see what happens.

I think the danger is dumping it before it reaches its full potential , Thinker. The spread is likely to be large with such a tiny free float but it does fluctuate. Compared to so many AIM blue sky miners this is a gem. We've got a good spread of investments and getting periodic cash infusions. I suspect that it will move up strongly within 18 months , as Quadrum says, so I'm happy to bottom draw it till then. I like to have a portfolio of small caps trading below NAV.

TheThinker: The potential (or perhaps I should say massive potential) has been covered here extensively over a long period - including some good recent posts. DYOR?

The when - no one knows for sure and at this stage one cannot say more than there will be no single defining event, since MAFL is a resources investment company with several different strategies. The securities portfolios have been delivering some excellent results on both listed and unquoted portions, but those will always be of secondary importance.

The real jewel in the crown is Redcorp/LS which with Ascendant's help is well advanced upon all the necessary steps in proving its worth. A revised PEA is due before year end - that's one more event which might help the market take notice. But It will probably take more than that.

However, I suspect JV's priority is to encourage completion of the proving processes in the shortest possible time but my personal time horizon for this to really filter through to the market is still 12-18 months. You will not find institutions investing in a micro-cap like MAFL so its always going to be volatile when AIM investors are your shareholder base. There is little JV can do about that now - or the spread! Hence, as often urged here, Patience is the watchword.

So what is the potential and when? JPV was talking about making MAFL more liquid a year ago. Yet we are still looking at 15% spread locking investors in for the long run unless they sell at a loss. Bonds are more dynamic than this..

Agree. We seem to be suffering a confidence crisis at the moment with Ascendant's sp dropping to 18.5 CAC. Temporary we hope so this does present an opportunity to pick up MAFL shares at a knock down price.

Florence, I fully agree with your summary. You have expressed that very succinctly and (to me, as a long-term supporter of MAFL) very convincingly. To my mind, realising the enormous potential is just a question of "when", not "whether".

This is good for those of us that believe in the story here. Nothing has changed. Market cap completely underpinned by a combination of cash, liquid securities and future earn ins, promising non-listed assets in the price for free right now, millions in net present value at lagoa salgada etc. If you believed there was value in that story at 13p a share then you should really believe it at 10.30p a share. I certainly do.

Yes Sherlock you are right. Or put another way if £4k wipes out 10% market cap then MAFL is worth £40k!! This stock is totally crooked. If I ever get back in the black I'll be hitting sell and put my cash elsewhere. Get rich quick or get rich slow. I know which I would take.

Excellent how £ 4K in trading stock can wipe out 10 per cent of the market cap – or £ 350K!

Sher-Lock, thanks for your posts and I wholeheartedly agree with you about the opportunity here. LS is located in the same geological formation as several successful producing mines and MAFL's proving process so far has shown excellent if not world class grades for a wide variety of minerals, including Zn, Pb, Cu, Au, Ag. For instance, Tin was not assayed earlier on in the Central zone but reassaying those cores later showed good quality results there too. Now the expanded proving process is producing good results from the South zone too.

The quality of the grades and breadth of minerals throughout has to make this a most exciting proposition and, quite properly, Ascendant and MAFL are ensuring that the right processes are being followed to realise its full potential.

This is not a get-rich-quick opportunity which is why patience is correctly urged on all investors.

Below my four posts with facts, TheThinker!

For sure, it will take a few years to develop this mine, but certainly, there is some value in the ground. As everywhere spending on discoveries of new resources were cut (today mining companies act more like a finance institution), it could develop to a bigger thing. Just imagine if a real deep pocket miner comes in and drills more than a dozen drill holes at once.

The geology speaks for LS, investors have to be a bit patient

IMAP mentions a total enterprise value of around €450 million for Almina. In Baco's Montepio annual report, you can find the valuation measurements to arrive at th €67 million on page 241/242. The bank received in 2020 a dividend of €1.7 million.

https://www.imap.com/en/article/2021/imap-portugal-advises-caixa-economica-montepio-geral-on-the-sale-of-its-19-equity-stake-in-almina-holding/

IMAP is pleased to announce that IMAP Portugal (Invest Corporate Finance) acted as exclusive financial advisor to Caixa Económica Montepio Geral (“Banco Montepio”) on the sale of its 19% equity stake in Almina Holding S.A. (“Almina”).
Banco Montepio, one of the largest Portuguese banks, sold its equity participation in Almina for a total consideration of €67 million, corresponding to a total enterprise value of around €450 million.

Founded in 1844, Banco Montepio is the oldest Portuguese financial institution, currently managing over €17.9 billion in assets. The completion of this operation enabled Banco Montepio to effectuate its plan to reduce non-strategic assets and increase capital ratios.

Almina is a leading mining company operating in the extraction of pyrites, sulphides, and other ores in Portugal, including copper, zinc and silver. It also has lithium and tin exploration activities. The company’s core facility operates the second-largest mining site in the Iberian Pyrite Belt, the main metallogenic province of the European Union. In 2019, Almina generated more than €130 million in revenues, and an EBITDA of c. €43.5 million.

The IMAP Portugal team, led by Gonçalo Vaz Botelho and Pedro Benites, acted as exclusive advisor to Banco Montepio.

In Ascendant's press release of 9th June, the combined M&I resources is 14.75 million tonnes & Inferred 10.17 million tonnes.

The silver grades at Aljustrel are 53.1 g/t (P&P), 53.6 g/t (M&I) & 48.4 g/t (Inferred)

At Lagoa Salgada the grades are in the North Zone 64.0 g/t (M&I) and 38 g/t (Inferred) & in the South Zone 18 g/t & 19 g/t respectively. The lower silver content in the South Zone is compensated by the higher copper grade.

Because Almina is a private company, it is difficult to get some details on production or resources. In the Investor Guidebook of Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), published in September 2020, we get some details. WPM holds a stream on the silver in the Zn&Pb concentrate which is mined. WPM shows a 2-year average silver production of 1.242 million ounces. Proven & Probable silver reserves and resources with 15.5 million tons, M&I resources 17.0 million tons and Inferred 14.0 million tons. I think, we can assume the tonnage is equal to the resources of zinc/copper equivalent measures.

https://econews.pt/2021/07/01/banco-montepio-sells-19-stake-in-almina-for-e63-million/

Banco Montepio sells 19% stake in Almina for €67 million
ECO News - 1 July 2021
The bank led by Pedro Leitão has sold its stake in Almina, a mining company in Aljustrel.
Banco Montepio sold its 19% stake in Almina, a mining company in Aljustrel. The operation resulted in a gross cash inflow of €67 million but will have no impact on this year’s results.
In a statement sent to CMVM, the bank led by Pedro Leitão said that the deal will have a positive impact on its capital ratios, “estimated on a pro forma basis at the end of the first quarter of 2021, of 7 basis points in Common Equity Tier 1 ratio and 9 basis points in Total Capital ratio, in both cases reflecting the decrease in risk-weighted assets, while the impact on net income for 2021 was neutral.”
At stake is the sale of 9,500 Almina shares, equivalent to 19% of the mining company’s share capital, with the bank not revealing the identity of the buyer. It only said that “the completion of this transaction materialises Banco Montepio’s strategy of continuous reduction of non-strategic assets and represents one of the measures to increase capital ratios as set out in the Funding and Capital Plan.”
Banco Montepio, which is almost entirely owned by Associação Mutualista Montepio Geral (AMMG), recorded losses of €16 million in the first quarter of the year.

This share is like imitation jewellery. It looks like a bargain but unlike the real thing it only goes down in value, very rarely rising. Can't wait for it to rise enough so I am out of the red and then SELL button will be pressed so I can buy something that will make me £££.

Sherlock,

I think we’re pulling in the same direction here.

I’m referring to the 1m usd received in June 21, the 1m usd due in June 22 and the 2.5m dollars due to complete the arrangement in December 22.

Total 4.5m usd, approx 3.27m gbp

GL

I have to correct your figures 1 + 2.5 million US$ divided by 1.3770 US$/£ equals 2.54 million £ or 63 per cent of the current market cap. Your general assumption is correct, but as long there is not a better communication and care taking of shareholders you will have alway too many shares when it trades down with no volume , and not enough when it spikes up.

Yes the addition of that cash to the stated 6m NAV is unknown as we don’t know the discount rate applied to future payments. However, I’m not talking about what these payments will add to NAV, I’m saying that the actual cash received in an 18 month period will be 3.27m gbp, which is almost all of the market cap at this price.

Do not forget, that partly future payments are included in the net asset value, but on a discounted base. Don't ask me how much this is. Anyhow, a RNS for a few £ would always be welcome by the management.