The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Events are moving keep up with it - or should I say "Keep aware"
Sorry if I interrupted anyone's Nap.
Vic - that's fair comment, and I think you are right that they need to actually demonstrate any change (no more jam tomorrow I suppose).
I would point one thing out though, the historic business is allegedly profitable irrespective of the contraction and the company was/is losing money because of the expansion activity and level of overhead necessary to facilitate expansion.
The new business will largely be serviced within that overhead so will in theory shift the company into profitability.
I think the issue is that the "old"business is seen to be on a contracting path (notwithstanding the temporary fillip of the PGi Connect deal), and the company was incurring losses in 2022. If the company can show the speed of contraction has reduced, and/or it is back to profitability, then the market cap of £7m is way too low.
As the perk seems to faded out of our perky little share, I thought I would do a little assessment of what the revenue of out new business venture might be, bearing in mind the company expects to generate £5m profit from it.
From RNS:
"Following the successful transition of PGi Connect Meetings business and the commercial progress achieved in Cloud Telephony, the Group now expects FY 2022 revenue to be marginally above market expectations at no less than £15.5 million (H1 2022: £6.6 million). FY 2022 EBITDA is expected to be marginally below market expectations, due to higher PGi Connect transition execution costs, but is not expected to impact FY 2023 profitability."
So H2 turnover is £8.9m (15.5-6.6) with a 2 month (2 month period of invoicing for the new customers) contribution from new customers, Oct and Nov will be invoiced and December will not be paid this year!
Assuming the revenue from other business is steady and revenue from the new business is 1.5 times the existing (that's the proportion of a revenue boost they indicated in last RNS) . The new business monthly revenue is:
1.5x 8.9/6+2x1.5) = £1.48m/ month if my maths is right
At £1.5m/month it equates to £18m revenue/ annum and if the company holds it own on existing business (and by now they should be expanding cloud business significantly) it provides for a 2023 revenue of over £30m (18 + 2x6.6 with the 6.6m being the H1 2022 figure)
Yes it's a very rough calculation but it makes a market cap of just £7m look ridiculous
Jtd
yes..totally true.....maybe a 3 month Trading Update will come in March and provide further momentum ....and some strength on those potential new contracts nearing a signing stage
You're absolutely right Pokerc - I am influenced by my history with Loop, no one wants to company to turn this around more then I, but I try to remain positive but balanced and never advise others to part with their cash.
I generally pleased with any new interest and jamrock's purchase is most welcome. I'm more concerned with the ********** interest, it is invariably fleeting and usually end with a sell recommendation, those buying based on that type of charting are invariably fleeting visitors and in my experience end up trashing a share price after a surge (lemming mentality prevails, the majority always do well so the strategy works).
Hence why I hope it is something else driving the minor improvement - hopefully one of those big leads signed up.
Jtd,
You still carry the wounds and scars of the previous SP collapse so you are right to be sceptical of change....yes..this week is mere small green roots coming from a seed in the soil..but...the Mcap increased 30% this week, and the number of trades jumped 10 fold from 4 at the beginning of the week to 41 on Friday....so...it seems there is word getting round that this is cheap and the train is leaving the station ...
...so..at this stage some will just dive in for a speculative ride to make some money and care little about the ins and outs of anything going with previos issues..
Next test is whether some momentum comes from the green shoot and whether any Twitter or such like starts sending further word round....
The chart from Zac was short,simple and directional..and that is enough for some of those readers...they just need a tip and in they go
Not many shares on the shelf at these prices...once they are gone the price will move ....70% shares held by main shareholders
MMs will move it so they can sell any shares they have for profit ...poor spread encourages holders to hold at the moment
Yes, we are all glad to see some interest and upward movement, but it is really meaningless to see such a small movement based to a few grands worth of shares. In response to the last poster, it's a little insensitive to buy in then immediately tell shareholder who may have lost the vast majority of their investment to pump move money in - why don't you buy more yourself, looks awfully similar to a pump and dump effort I truly hope it isn't. Those retaining shares give very careful consideration to investing more and I for one of the 10 or so BB followers will only buy on solid evidence, not a chart or a wing and a prayer. Apologies if it seems a tad harsh.
I'm not convinced Vox Markets/Zac Mir have much to offer - looking at charts is effectively problematic (to say the least) with such a small unloved company where the main problems are driving the SP not any technical investment strategies - to be honest IMO the last thing we need is the likes of Zac and his followers on the case, even singing the praises, as the viewpoint is often changed swiftly based on no more than trends and ultimately results in a sell off based on some chart interpretation - many shares have suffered. Much better to simply wait for news to make meaningful and sustainable progress IMO.
I took a look at what might be going on in the background on Thursday, before the movement. as ever practically nothing to get a grip on, but I did take a look at LInkedin and for me it is striking that some longstanding and prominent second line manager have left the company in the last year, especially those involved in marketing/PR/sales support. No one is publishing anything anymore or announcing events.
It's a little concerning that longstanding staff leave, but we really don't know if the Directors precipitated this (they RNSed a few years ago about clearing out underperformers in their sales PODs - they they can't weed themselves out.
Anyway it doesn't seem to be impacting sales (but we shall newer know as they don't fess up to problems), interestingly I also found an IT services company apparently recruiting for a LOOPUP job . They seemed to have inadvertently put the word Loopup in the middle of the AD, as they provide staff and management services I wondered if Loopup had outsourced some of the services as taking on the rapid and sporadic expansion requires quick responses which Loopup might struggle to handle alone. If they are subbing services the upside is they can expand more rapidly than I feared and right size the business without destroying the salary structure, but again they will not want to ever admit it.
Lets hope next week bring further SP increases and for clear reasons we understand.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/LOOP/trading-update-2pi4ao6ngaawh7j.html
I looked at this with an open mind and after reading the update it’s clear 2023 is the turnaround year for loop up
Pokerchips
People forget the price this share was at two years ago. Yes it had its problems with miss communication etc but the price it sits at well undervalues the company. If it demonstrates the worst is behind and executes it strategy the markets could warm to the vision and a rerate on the cards. Sometimes you have to take a position on the basis of potential and is it’s technology valued more than the market cap. I think it truly is and after reading up more on Friday I took a position and would urge LTHs to look at there positions with a view to average down whilst it’s cheap. Whilst many have been burnt and cautious just remember if it doubles at pace you can easily recover any previous losses. The markets are watching for any update and I think it’s closer than we think. Just my opinion but good luck.
Thanks it's at 7.55 in on the video.
Really think Loop could be past the worst, fingers crossed.
silly asterisks ...V.O.X.M.A.R.K.E.T.S
McInvestor
today (24th Feb) ...********** website that jamrock gave the link to...12 mins in
Sorry for being a noob but which video did Zak say this in?
jamrock
thanks
Zak chart says 50DMA - 3.8p, December resistance 3.9-4.00p , looking for 6p in the near term or 4-6 weeks ...looking good so far for today to add to that possibility
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=zak+mir+traders+cafe&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/trader-s-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-february-24-48eb4cd/
Poker chips
It could be good news if Zak’s right
next 3 month Update could possibly be Mid March , so you are buying on seeing an improvement within that Trading Statement , which is very possible given recent momentum on contracts and PGi Connect progress
jamrock
Directors are buying every month with part of their salary ...see RNS 11th January 2023
I guess if your in you’d be wise to average down at these levels incase the bounce gathers momentum.
I’ve looked at this and thought about it but it’s one of them your always cautious and no Directors buying don’t fill you with confidence. It does to have put a bottom in and turned the corner. Good news would help and yes it could move quickly
We’ve seen how quick it moves when it goes…
yes.... is it waking from hibernation? .....there really are few shares available at the bottom prices....pretty small free float ...
Looks perkier the last few days!
I agree with Pokerchips, the bad news is behind them now and the house is getting in order. The stock has bounced significantly before on news. Don't forget that other investor who put in around £5 million in exchange for the training company he owned. That was at 25 pence a share, he's going to want a return way past that price.
So we have a dozen (minimum) interested parties who read the BB, which when we take into account those that are short or simply watching it equates to bugger all support.
It is sort of concerning that the company is all but abandoned by PIs but also a real positive that if the company does garner some new supporters by reporting some new achievements I'm sure the SP could soar - our IIs are not pumping money in just for the fun of it, they are savvy (rich) invertors who in at least a couple of cases know the company inside out.
As ever we must be patient and sit it out or throw the towel in - thanks for voting by the way it gives a perspective on who might be trading and it's not us.