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Why the sudden interest?
The share will be suspended for six months. The company is suing the Irish government for losses of one hundred million pounds as a result of the government not allowing them to drill the Barryroe oil and gas field. The company have employed the legal firm Mantle to raise six million pounds or to be party to a reserve takeover in order to be relisted. If they don't raise six million pounds or are not taken over in the next six months, the shares will be delisted
Does anyone know what is happening here ?
A few jumping in today. Last chance saloon giving them FOMO maybe.
Now we wait to see if we get 10x or more.
He clearly hasn’t got the thick skin of an Eamon Ryan. Ryan, who believes the divine hand is guiding him to save the biosphere, is out of touch but ideologues can never admit that.
Well done, Leo.
Leo varadkar is resigning,maybe there will be an earlier election and finally a chance to get rid of Ryan.
Ahh yes, morning of. 👍
Well good luck either way.
That is why I added yesterday (19th) ....you got to be in to lose or "win" looks binary....but with the "cash pot" potential .....the oddds are goood to go! (IMO).....GLA
Tomorrow ,is the last day of trading as shares will be suspended as at 7.30 am on Thursday 21 March 2024
Hi, Flying comment, shares take 2 days to settle so anyone buying tomorrow or thursday risks not being on the register at close Thursday.
buying on 20th - shares settle 22nd.
buying on 21st - shares settle 23rd.
Hello there Swizz. Thank you very much for your comments. You are a Gentleman. I think most on this site really appreciate the effort and time you took. Interesting times ahead. Fingers crossed. We might salvage something yet. Sad situation though that a bunch of zealots and career politicians have not take the best interest of the Country at heart and have destroyed the potential oil and gas industry in Ireland. Take care regards Spuddy
Thanks for detailed post,Swizz.
I was very disappointed by the lack of activity in the share last week. I thought the rns was a clever bait by SB to force Goodman or any other suitor out of the woodwork .
After suspension, I can’t see what the attraction would be for LG or another , to takeover logp if the fruits of a successful ect claim was denied to them.
An aim listing? - the Barryroe listing meant nothing to Goodman.
But maybe somebody will make a move in the market on Monday -Wed with some big purchases . It will be interesting to see .
Do you know if logp have taken legal advice to back up assertion that “the combined company would have full access to the ECT pathway through Lansdowne being a UK domiciled company”
My understanding from talking to some legal friends is that this is not possible retrospectively as Barryroe was an Irish registered company when ministerial decision was made . So it would be good to know if logp had legal advice on this as it would be a game changer.
I don’t see any seismic change in Irish politics re oil. The only light of hope I see is Michael Collins new independent ireland party. They could be the really big surprise of the next election . Now if they were part of a coalition and the greens done ,common sense might prevail.
I hope swizz's very erudite post has reassured you. My understanding of a binary bet is you either lose your stake or win big time! Funnily enough, before swizz's post appeared, I was extolling LOGP's potential as a 50-bagger elsewhere. Naturally, I was shot down in flames. Obviously, time is money and the case could drag on but, equally, LOGP could return to AIM with a bright future.
Thanks for posting your views Swizz. Suing the government under the ECT, and to reverse BOE in would be 2 bites of a very nice cherry. Given a successful claim now by LOGP, I suspect the government would think twice about reneging on the licence again if the LU decision is ever reversed. There’s a chance that they could be sued for a billion second time around. There’s a chance the government may see sense a reverse it before LOGP make their ect claim, but something tells me they won’t be savvy enough to do that, not with the current minister at least, who is so dogmatic he will put principle before business sense.
Once again, Swizz, thanks for your observations and the time and effort involved. It is good to hear from someone who can speak with rather more assurance than the rest of us. I think Flombo will feel a bit better about things after reading your comprehensive post!
Thank you for posting Swizz. A very interesting read. Hopefully they will be able to raise the money needed to take a case against the Irish government. Perhaps a number of investors, each willing to take a relatively small punt, knowing the return would be massive if things worked out. A reserve takeover in the near term would be even better. As I mentioned before, the option of been able to take a case against the government is very good leverage for Larry Goodman when it comes to reinstating the licence for Barryroe. The legal action is Lansdownes Ace when dealing with Larry Goodman. Politically, Barryroe may be raised in the upcoming European elections, which should put some pressure on Fainne Fail and Fine Gael were it to be raised by the other candidates who are running. It is hard to know what will happen really. As Lansdowne have said in their last RNS, there is no guarantee that they will be successful so it is up to everyone to decide themselves. Wishing everyone the best of luck
2,..There are of course risks, as the company has not yet secured litigation funding (although Mantle Law are very proficient in this area as are their network of litigation funders) and of course the ECT hearing could find in favour of the Irish Government, but if you were take a prudent approach with the above numbers and with a current share price of circa 0.1p per share there is still very good optionality here, the ring fencing makes that even more attractive as, in the event of a positive ECT outcome, those on the register at suspension date won’t be further diluted for the ringfenced pot.
In regards to the suspension LOGP would have a strong case to argue with any party undertaking an RTO that it offers upside of 0.4p to 2p (using above numbers) it clearly would need to be heavily risked, but It can also argue it has a valuable and viable AIM listing, as a result it is not unreasonable to assume any RTO (ignoring the ring fenced part of the ECT Claim) would take place in excess of the current market price of circa £1M and naturally If an RTO happens, the shares will recommence trading, shareholders on the register at 21.03 would continue to benefit with their ongoing LOGP shareholding assuming the LOGP makes an accretive transaction.
Plus the Irish government may also elect at any point to reinstate the licences, which would lead to lifting the suspension, but that again in any event would be viewed as a positive and it is certainly what we want, hence my thoughts around BOE.
Both BOE and LOGP want the drill turning and the LU decision reversed, but being fully combined in one entity makes a lot of sense in my opinion and it would ensure that the combined company has full access to the ECT pathway through Lansdowne being a UK domiciled company and with the funding capability of Vevan, it would very quickly dismiss the claim of financial stability, plus Lansdowne would be very capable of continuing to pay their way, in regards to the current equity structure of the licence 80/20 split with BOE.
It is very evident a seismic change of Irish politics is now underway and whilst LOGP progress the ECT claim, the combined entity can be getting everything in order in anticipation of an Irish Government who will be less inclined to be governed by flawed ideology and if you are able to take some time out to review some of the documentation that has been filed with Ireland’s companies house, it is very evident what the intentions of BOE are, so picking up on your point of “getting something back”, this story is far from over, I am certainly sticking with it and I know others are,..GL S
Morning Spud,
I hope you are well and a 2-part reply of my thoughts and observations, ..
1,..The recent news that Lansdowne intends to ringfence all/part of any awards under its ECT claim against the Irish Government for the shareholders on the share register on March 21st, is certainly very welcome and underlines we have a conscientious board led by SB, some I acknowledge will say that is the least we deserve, and it is difficult to argue that point, although your point about integrity
Is very pertinent and that in part has been a factor in my support of the company and I am sure it has been with others, and I am confident the background support remains very strong,
I along with a small group have continued to support the company and will continue to do so, there is circa 75% of the equity across a small group of investors and my family and close connections are holding circa 15% of the 75% and we will not be selling, and I don’t believe the others will either,
I would suggest March 21st is a stepping stone, and whilst the shares will be suspended, as LOGP is now classified as an AIM cash shell, it is right to safeguard shareholder’s pro rata economic interests in the claim at the time of suspension, I believe It is highly likely over the months ahead, that the company will look to undertake an RTO and recommence trading, this of course will involve the issue of shares via fund raising, which in turn will lead to dilution of existing positions (and by default the % interest in any ECT claim award) should the ring fence not take place.
So, I would suggest it is worth looking at the value proposition and pathway ahead, If were to assume an award of circa £75M (LOGP are detailing +$100M claim) and if we assumed costs of 33% (fees/litigation funding of no win-no fee) that would potentially give £50M of clear proceeds.
SB and LOGP have not been precise in terms of what will be ringfenced at this stage (or confirmed the litigation deal), that I sense we will see soon enough, but you can easily recalculate various permutations of say 50%/£25M, 70%/£35M, etc. Etc and if you consider that we 1.233bn shares in issue, the numbers detailed relate to 2p to 3.65p per share (could potentially be in the ring-fenced ECT pot), plus there is a corresponding figure left in the plc, ranging from 2p to 0.4p respectively, which gives us a total of 4p a share of value (circa 50x times the current SP), so the more we have ring-fenced for existing shareholders the better.
It’s a binary bet ! maybe you could explain that to us stupid people ,in relation to logp
Funnily enough, I was thinking the same about you! Just goes to show how unrepresentative of us all these exchanges are!
I repeat: it's a binary bet!
Patronising arrogant individual ,aren’t you
You're far too clever for the likes of me! And obviously lack a sense of humour. It's a binary bet. I'm in.
Beardozer, I don’t think you understand the concept of sites like this !!!
I have no doubt there are other people like myself on here who have a decision to make in the next few days ..
whether to stick or fold ?
Whether to grab a tax loss now or lose it for a decade ?
To calculate the chances of legal success?
That’s the point of these sites, to put forward different views. You don’t have to read them if it upsets you .
You think there is 99% sure of success
The legitimate point I am making is that the market and legal funders ,for that matter , obviously don’t share your view .
Barryroe management were sloppy. They turned down an offer from logp for reverse takeover which would have had Ryan facing a possible legal bill of €1b instead of €100m
More importantly, they didn’t cross all their t’s . They should have implemented some financial engineering to satisfy the net tangible asset requirement. They did not and gave Ryan the opportunity he wanted .
A scenario like the following could easily arise in the next year or do :
Eog agrees farm out with vermillion and minister has to make his decision on licence to drill.
If he turns its down , brilliant news for logp as vermillion easily pass the net tangible rule.
But if the minister permits the licence, what then for logp legal case ??
99% sure !!!
Blimey Flombo10, as my old Dad used to say: "If you have nothing pleasant to say, say nothing at all!"
By this stage in the proceedings I think everyone's positions are where they will remain - GLA!
The Market is very often an ass!
And I'm 99% sure LOGP will win their case - the fly in the ointment is the amount of compensation.
Firstly, Swizz, I admire your optimism
But I don’t know what you mean by “ winds of chance” I have seen no change at all in the political environment re oil . For natural gas ,yes but oil ,none.
Anyway, I can’t share your optimism anymore and nor it seems does the market .
Even the ability to lock in value after next week had not tempted any larger share purchases because I think
1. the winning of the case is not a sure fire thing ( esp with decisions ,for example, on Europa oil and gas probably coming in the next year or so )
2. No legal funding yet after 9 months
3. plus need for ongoing financing to keep the fires on .
Maybe at a late stage next week,somebody might try to buy big chunks of it but then again, why , when they can just wait for another 6 months .
Swizz, if you have more concrete reasons for your optimism ,would love to hear them.