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UR - it was 2 months ago the last official statement regarding any further drilling - and was stated as being "under consideration". I guess it depends on what that actually means. Been nowt said since.
By my calcs there needs to be a takeover offer of 3.5p just to break even against what's been invested in LND over the many years.
Surely the ‘agreed price’ is likely to be the issue here as well as a specified timeframe. That’s why I felt a JV was more likely than OA. Quite happy to be wrong mind.
As for my early 2020 reference, I was and am expecting LND to get started within Q1 . I understood they were funded for this as don’t expect a huge amount of drilling. It’s the potential shown by positive step outs that I believe is crucial here. ( couple of deep drills showing continuing mineralisation at depth would also help).
The ladies down Madame Una's Massage Parlour don't envisage your short-term JV followed by a possible takeover during 2020 ever happening. If 2 parties were like-minded surely they'd simply agree an Option Fee and enter into an Option agreement for say 6 or 9 months to purchase the Company at an agreed price subject to them carrying out a drilling prog at their expense plus being allowed to do DD on LND at the same time? Just like FN did with LND many moons ago.
I don't agree with you about BH getting old. He IS old. 80th birthday this year I believe.
Have I missed something with your "early 2020 drilling"??? What drilling is that exactly??
If they can't agree a deal with anyone I really can't see any option but for them to become a dormant Company.
If you ask any professional mining analyst they will tell you if a project doesn't go from initial find to production within 7 years it's unlikely it ever will. When LND first announced BAM 6-7 years ago the sp was I think 3.5p. It's since lost about 75% of value since then. Look at what the price was when they first announced Lamaune gold - about 16p from memory. Look at the cash burn - must be near £50 million. The person who has done "very, very well" is RP with what he's trousered over the many years. Look back at some of his podcasts when he was CEO of LND. He should be sued for PI misrepresentation.
My biggest concern here still remains the complete lack of any real buying pressure on the stock. Sorry, I don't believe this is a Company capable of being tight lipped. Quite the opposite. Humphries has a small but loyal & enthusiastic pi Fan Club. If something was happening the rumour mill would be active. But it's been dead as dead can be. With pi sells far outnumbering buy trades.
Perhaps it is now ‘simply’ a question of fair price for LND v fair price for interested party.
Clearly drilling at this level by LND cannot continue ad infinitum. As such, I am not going to take that option even at 100/1.
BH is getting older and RP has gone. They have, in my view, done very very well with the BAM discovery and progression to 1 mn plus oz’s since 2016 with nailed on but as yet unknown additional au resources at Junior Lake. They will not want this dormant so not taking that one either pal.
Now then, the question of takeover v JV.
LND believe they are sat on a multi million ounce gold resource. The problem is that ‘only’ 1000000 is proven (plus nickel of course). If they let it go now it is very possible that the fair price will not go in LND’s favour.
If, however, the planned 2 or so deep drills into BAM and other drills targeting anomalies as step outs towards Lamaune are carried out first, then that will reveal a clearer (but accepted not perfect) picture.
If the results are disappointing, then perhaps the board will go ahead and try to reach an agreement based simply on what they know now. ie resource as per NI 43-101.
If, however, the early 2020 drilling reveals results that continue to match (thereabouts) the grades achieved at BAM, then it has to be concluded that LND do, indeed, have their multi million au resource. That has to put us in a completely different league entirely and massively strengthens our hand . (For any newbies...please read RNS detailing 2019 extremely promising soil sampling out to the west towards Lamaune where there are also proven 40000 ounces au and also BAM au grades that may continue and possibly improve at depth).
At this point (and I personally believe this is the point we will reach) there are three possibilities I believe.
The first is that LND are agreeable to takeover based SIMPLY ON ASSUMPTIONS that can then be made about potential amounts. Not perfect in any way but puts us in a slightly more favourable position.
The second is that LND believe there is far more upside to come. The new information has taken us over the tipping point with the third party who now agree a JV to move things on at pace to establish an MRE for full BAM to Lamaune and once reached (could be within a year with multi rigs) agree takeover.
The third option is that LND push for a JV that includes not just option 2 but an additional undertaking by JV partner to push additional exploration over the remainder of the 31 km Greenstone Belt on which Junior Lake property is sat.
My view is that option 2 is the most likely as it provides a better and fairer balance for both companies TAKING TIME INTO ACCOUNT.
As such Mads, I am going for initial joint venture leading to takeover all within 2020.
I know Ladbrokes have not yet offered a price for that result, but, who knows.