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This is the reality of the rolling over of trade deals. We're a mess.
"Joe Biden has played down the chances of brokering a post-Brexit free trade deal with the UK, as he held talks with Boris Johnson at the White House."
What sort of property in Hainan did you go sniffing after? What price(s) were you offered? Was there room to negotiate on price? Did you read the full contract even if you were only sniffing. What were the main points of the terms and conditions?
Hi again Armani and Wids,
Let's spare a thought for the people of Iraq, Iran, and the Middle East generally. If they didn't have huge natural reserves of all they would probably have been a lot happier and lived a lot longer. All it has caused is wars and military interventions (overt and covert) from foreign states. Countries that ought to have had a GDP per capita of over $100,000 have ended up short of bread and water (never mind electricity and the basics of civilised living). It brings a tear to my eye. How can people do this? Just learn to leave a bit for everyone else and then there are less people (and their descendants) with an axe to grind against you in the future. I can't see Iraq ever getting along with the USA - even when the oil has run out how can you ever fix the damage that has been done? I do believe some American companies like AIrbnb have good intentions and genuinely believe in trying to find market-driven sustainable solutions to keep living standards at their current level (and to bring up more people). However, I can't see how you will ever get goodwill from the Iraqis after you took their oil for food and then let them run short of bread and water (never mind electricity and all the other essentials). It is easy to create vast wealth when you don't even pay other people a market price. $15 per barrel may have been rather on the low side for their oil. But to take it in return for a bit of grain/corn was just a joke. And now Biden is apparently is in charge and everyone knows he can barley look after himself. Is it some kind of Karma so the world has the last laugh at the USA? Sorry if you are an American and you try and use only a sensible amount of oil and gas. But other people in your country seem to use far more than the global average consumption per capita.
Hi again Wids,
Hainan looks like a paradise that is already over-developed along the coast with massive concrete hotels.
I don't think the buyers have disappeared without good reason. People loaded themselves up on debt and found expensive solutions to their problems (instead of realistic or financially prudent solutions), so they put up prices of what they were selling. Ergo the buyers disappeared for good reason as not willing to tolerate the inflated prices. Obviously it leaves the same mess flowing throughout the global financial system. Possibly as much as $25 Trillion of worthless debt created by people who did not realise you can not just employ small armies of consultants (at salaries that are only realistic to the people being paid them) and expect the buyers to put up with the following inevitable price increases.
I just think most of the current financial mess could have been avoided. But we are all well in the **** now. It has been two decades in the making. Reckless foreign wars. Poor judgment at home. Vast salary increases to the wrong people. Insulting salary increases to the right people. Then the **** kicks off (2008), but soon it's all covered over with temporary sticking plasters, and the FED printing $4 Trillion out of thin air, and ZIRP, and people think the problem is fixed? No, as you said Wids there are no buyers at the new prices caused by two decades of poor management. All there is, is about $25 Trillion of global loans (the majority in The Far East and Asia) which are about to go bad - and the FED probably thinks only $8 Trillion is unsalvageable. We shall we ....
Hopefully there is still time to make sure Christmas is a good one. I mean it is months away yet.
What I see, is that the UK has been in a badly managed (and defeatist) decline for a decade (the loss of steel-making is particularly sad, because I fear for any modern economy that is short of steel. Just like, now we have to import bricks from Germany as the UK closed down most of its brick making factories at the end of the 1990s). Rather bizarrely just when we screwed up the building materials supply in the UK (at the end of the 1990s), was the same time that Labour went mad on spending and financial largesse. Labour also took house prices out of the official inflation basket. (My local town is Chester in the UK. A terraced house in 1996 went for £40,000. In 2006, the same house was sold for £185,000). I think the citizens feel manipulated. I think Labour was just economically incompetent and had a meglomaniac and control-freak in charge (Tony Blair). However, other people may think Labour were a bunch of manipulative barstewards who plotted a form of economic-social engineering without due regard to unintended/unexpected consequences. Closing down nearly all of the brick making factories; pouring money into wasteful public-sector schemes and dodgy quangos; and vastly overgenerous PFI contracts; whilst removing house prices from the official inflation index. Gordon Brown couldn't have designed it more perfectly to cause a four-fold increase in house prices within a decade. The winners and losers were massive. The young were massive losers. Also, a sense of trust in government was lost. And a sense of economic fairness/sanity was lost. However, supposedly Gordon Brown was gazing into his moral compass - so maybe I have dreamt up what I have just wrote? Does anyone else remember all the insane economic decisions of the last Labour government?
Regarding Boris J and levelling up. I can not know the man's intentions. Just I don't see it happening on the ground currently: nor do I see/feel/sense/perceive any real intention of it happening. I don't think people want the managed decline to continue any longer. But I don't think people have a clue about how to get living standards on the rise again after a decade of stagnation/regression.
It's not the government debt that is the problem. It's the riots that will follow when people realise everything they have worked hard for 30 years for, has been wiped away by inflation within 18 months. Nobody could say that is fair or just. Obviously rioting is not the answer. However, it is what seems to happen when the population realise they have been mis-governed/mis-managed, such as in Venezuela or Columbia in the 1990s, or Haiti, or any number of countries in Africa which relied too much on mining (and most of the metals were being shipped abroad so of no benefit to the country itself).
And I can't judge Boris' intentions or thoughts. That was wrong of me. It is what I see is that the UK is in a managed decline (the loss of steel-making is particular sad because I fear the future economic consequence of a country that is short of steel - just like we now have to import bricks from Germany as closed down most of our brick making factories at the end of the 1990s - just at the time Labour went mad on the spending and took house prices out of the official inflation basket. And my local town is Chester in the UK. A terraced house in 1996 went for £40,000. In 2006 the same house was sold for £185,000). The citizens feel manipulated. I think Labour was just incompetent and had a meglomaniac and control-freak in charge, (Tony Blair). However, other people may think closing down the brick making factories, at the same time as pouring money into wasteful scheme and financial largesse, at the same time as removing house prices from the official inflation index, was designed to do exactly what happened to house prices - a four-fold increase within a decade. Obviously the winners and losers were massive. The young were obviously massive losers. I think a sense of trust in government, and a sense of economic fairness, was also lost. I still believe Labour were just ridiculously incompetent - but I have sympathy for anyone who thinks they were a bunch of manipulative barstewards who plotted a form of economic-social engineering without due regard to unintended/unexpected consequences.
Regarding Boris J and levelling up. I can not know the man's intentions. Just I don't see it happening on the ground currently: nor any real intention of it happening.
Indeed, rocky ride for Santa...lol.
Gold hasn't spiked ... strange to be honest.
Of course Wids, I remember the ghost cities all over the northern half of China.
In my previous post perhaps I exaggerated. I just meant the Americans come across as heavy handed. They always want the deal too much in their favour. When that is repeated and repeated people get fed up and rebel. Then the Americans get heavy handed. Hardly a recipe for your own sense of being a good person, nor for your own popularity: is it?
Of course, I remember the ghost cities all over the northern half of China.
The thing is you have to admire the Chinese. Everything they build is taking resources which other countries could have used for themselves (iron ore from Australia, Copper from Peru and DRC, Rare Earths from Afghanistan, Oil-and-Gas from everywhere but especially Africa, Russia, and remember they bought a 50% stake in the largest oil-and-gas field in the North Sea). So how do the Chinese do it? Well I think they do it by being a stable, reliable, and extremely hardworking trading partner for consumer goods. Every country in the world wants an endless supply of cheap consumer goods from China (from clothing to electricals, optics, sportswear, laptops, games, etc.). In return China gets to consume a far larger proportion of the world's natural resources than any other country. Even the USA can not match China as it can not get any goodwill from anyone. You see China is offering to provide you what you want in return for you providing natural resources to them. The USA is offering to provide you with death unless you do what it wants. As you can tell China is a million times more popular than the USA.
Cheap money and leverage. Load yourself up with debt, then the buyers disappear = brown pants. Cash flow is everything, when that dries up it's curtains - but hey who didn't see that coming.
Sniffed out property in Hainan months back, the new HK economic hub of the future so called, but sniffed a rat then.
Mega knock ons coming down the chit pipe. But make no mistake the answer to the debt will be more debt CTRL+P. Once you start that caper it's impossible to stop to avoid pain, real pain.
As always, wealth doesn't disappear - just transferred.
Remember the Ghost Cities?...lol
Thanks for expansion on EG. . X 2.7 further at stake is shy of $1 TN of junk bonds hitting market . Major contagion a cert !
I know what you mean but its such a massive set up with around 1,300 building projects in more than 280 cities across.
Well Thursday will be interesting as its due to repay $84m on its offshore bonds..
Another point of interest is that UBS estimates there are 10 developers with potentially risky positions with combined contract sales of around 2.7 times Evergrandes size.
The Govt did try and act last year with the 3 red lines for selected developers, which severely limited their capacity to borrow !!
But obviously something has gone drastically wrong and like you the numbers to me seem beyond comprehension...
Long term investor
Before my buy back at 63p in December 2019
From May 2013 , I actually traded my holdings very well and made ok profit with also Banking good dividends on the way.
Last 18 or so reminds me of my time 2009 to 2013 where I was caught out sitting underwater
Sometimes you just got to be patient in life ....
63p plus will return but looking more likely now once we see a bigger Dividend payment or a buy back
Happy to wait and happy to let the CEO find his feet before I have any opinion on him.
Update next month hopefully The new CEO will update his Investors on plans he going to return the share to pre-covid levels
Bigger Dividend and pay backs is a start IMHO
My observations on the EG mess , is that I find it hard to believe a construction company can owe $300Bn in debt . It looks as though they've been issuing bonds , purely to pay interest on previous bonds , a ponzy to us . China's accounting governance must be rather slack or palms have been greased .
If a building co goes under in China of such magnitude , there will most definitely be other companies in the same prediction and contagion .
Indeed. The risk is the financial contagion..
"Just trying to suss out the 2 day fall,has LBG any exposure to Evergrande via corporate bonds?"
It doesn't need direct exposure - it's just pure fear. When the bullets start flying you duck or the Anzio crouch.
''I need 63p to breakeven''
You are obviously are referring to your new buy in price of the last couple of years having previously left the stock after many years?
The SP went down today because of sellers. The rest of this week is too hard to call.
Don’t think this is exposed to international borrowers as this is domestic focussed bank.
Maybe low interest rates are keeping a lid on SP rise. Mortgage rates are sub 1% which maybe having a effect as it’s main business is mortgages. Once the rates rise hopefully next year then this will move back to 60 p. Patience needed here.
Try thinking about the loans which are not guaranteed.It's very likely if a guaranteed loan is written off then the business as a whole isn't a going concern.
"The Bank of England estimates the total SME debt to be £167 billion, with the big banks accounting for 65% of this lending" that's just SME's alone.
I don't think its as bad as it looks but the government just put a figure to it today.
Just trying to suss out the 2 day fall,has LBG any exposure to Evergrande via corporate bonds?
SUF, sure is ! Kinda like Spike's joke..."i told you i was ill"...
life is a ***** mate
I need 63p to breakeven
I am still entitled to my reply to stupid posts :-)
Its only money
Singe ....life is like a box of chocolates in Lloyds ....you just don't know what your gonna get !!!!:):)
hmm aren't you the one who had been chasing losses here since GFC...?