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Morning Wids,
Indeed, rocky ride for Santa...lol.
Gold hasn't spiked ... strange to be honest.
Short Cement
Long Turkeys
Theo/John
Cheap money and leverage. Load yourself up with debt, then the buyers disappear = brown pants. Cash flow is everything, when that dries up it's curtains - but hey who didn't see that coming.
Sniffed out property in Hainan months back, the new HK economic hub of the future so called, but sniffed a rat then.
Mega knock ons coming down the chit pipe. But make no mistake the answer to the debt will be more debt CTRL+P. Once you start that caper it's impossible to stop to avoid pain, real pain.
As always, wealth doesn't disappear - just transferred.
Remember the Ghost Cities?...lol
Theo,
Thanks for expansion on EG. . X 2.7 further at stake is shy of $1 TN of junk bonds hitting market . Major contagion a cert !
Long term investor
Before my buy back at 63p in December 2019
From May 2013 , I actually traded my holdings very well and made ok profit with also Banking good dividends on the way.
Last 18 or so reminds me of my time 2009 to 2013 where I was caught out sitting underwater
Sometimes you just got to be patient in life ....
63p plus will return but looking more likely now once we see a bigger Dividend payment or a buy back
Happy to wait and happy to let the CEO find his feet before I have any opinion on him.
Update next month hopefully The new CEO will update his Investors on plans he going to return the share to pre-covid levels
Bigger Dividend and pay backs is a start IMHO
Theo/Wids ,
My observations on the EG mess , is that I find it hard to believe a construction company can owe $300Bn in debt . It looks as though they've been issuing bonds , purely to pay interest on previous bonds , a ponzy to us . China's accounting governance must be rather slack or palms have been greased .
If a building co goes under in China of such magnitude , there will most definitely be other companies in the same prediction and contagion .
"Just trying to suss out the 2 day fall,has LBG any exposure to Evergrande via corporate bonds?"
It doesn't need direct exposure - it's just pure fear. When the bullets start flying you duck or the Anzio crouch.
Suf
''I need 63p to breakeven''
You are obviously are referring to your new buy in price of the last couple of years having previously left the stock after many years?
The SP went down today because of sellers. The rest of this week is too hard to call.
Don’t think this is exposed to international borrowers as this is domestic focussed bank.
Maybe low interest rates are keeping a lid on SP rise. Mortgage rates are sub 1% which maybe having a effect as it’s main business is mortgages. Once the rates rise hopefully next year then this will move back to 60 p. Patience needed here.
SUFC,
Try thinking about the loans which are not guaranteed.It's very likely if a guaranteed loan is written off then the business as a whole isn't a going concern.
"The Bank of England estimates the total SME debt to be £167 billion, with the big banks accounting for 65% of this lending" that's just SME's alone.
I don't think its as bad as it looks but the government just put a figure to it today.
Just trying to suss out the 2 day fall,has LBG any exposure to Evergrande via corporate bonds?
SUF, sure is ! Kinda like Spike's joke..."i told you i was ill"...
good luck..
Darth.
Darth
life is a ***** mate
I need 63p to breakeven
BUT
I am still entitled to my reply to stupid posts :-)
Its only money
Singe ....life is like a box of chocolates in Lloyds ....you just don't know what your gonna get !!!!:):)
SUF "Dumbo"..
hmm aren't you the one who had been chasing losses here since GFC...?
DYOR
''Government hasn't any confidence it will get our money back so why should Lloyds.''
Because its Guaranteed by the GOVERMENT Dumbo
They also added in
"Public sector net borrowing (PSNB ex) was estimated to have been £325.1 billion in the financial year ending March 2021, an increase of £27.1 billion compared with our previous estimate; largely as a result of recording, for the first time, expected expenditure of £20.9 billion on calls under the government loan guarantee schemes".
Government hasn't any confidence it will get our money back so why should Lloyds.
"Government borrowing was higher than expected in August as debt interest payments rose due to higher inflation.
Borrowing, which is the difference between tax income and spending, was £20.5bn, official figures show - £5.5bn lower than in August last year.
However, it was still the second-highest figure for August since records began.
Economists had expected government borrowing to be about £15bn.
Borrowing has been at record levels, with billions being spent by the government on measures such as the furlough scheme to support the economy.
This high spending, combined with less money coming into the exchequer due to the pandemic and a fall in economic output, has pushed government debt up to more than £2.2 trillion, or about 97.6% of GDP - a level not seen since the early 1960s.
The interest payments on government debt were £6.3bn in August. That was £2.9bn more than in August 2020, but lower than the monthly record of £8.7bn in June 2021."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58604552
DYOR